I’m a Tim Harford voter. Are you?

“The Tim Harford voter is worried that the very foundations of British policymaking seem to be shallow and prone to crack. The bad policies are just the clumsy fondant icing; it’s the cake itself that is rotting away.”
ft.com/content/5fae45…
“Consider Brexit. It’s a foolish policy, to be sure, but much more than that. It was enabled by a vaguely worded referendum that was introduced by a prime minister who crossed his fingers & forbade preparation for the outcome. It was sold to the British people on false pretences
A member of parliament, Jo Cox, was murdered during the campaign

3 of the prime ministers leading the project —Cameron, May & Truss —voted against it, & the other, Johnson, was notoriously ambivalent. Ever since the vote, the process has been mired in vitriol, contempt & denial
“One does not have to be a diehard Remainer to look at the entire decision-making process and fear that the British polity is not really up to the grown-up job of running a country.”

For those saying “Harford? Who?”

Think the wonderful #MoreOrLess programmes.

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More from @fascinatorfun

Sep 12
'We ask you to relieve yourself of your post': Kremlin officials have begun a mutiny against Vladimir Putin
alternet.org/2022/09/kremli…
“The rhetoric that you and your subordinates use has been riddled with intolerance and aggression for a long time, which in the end effectively threw our country back into the Cold War era.”
“ Russia has again begun to be feared and hated, we are once again threatening the whole world with nuclear weapons,” the officials wrote.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 12
The deafening silence over Brexit’s economic fallout

Johnson may not want his party “relitigating” Brexit but neither does Sir Keir Starmer, leader of the opposition Labour party, around a third of whose supporters voted Leave in the 2016 referendum.
ft.com/content/7a209a…
“Nor does Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England. Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, would rather talk about something else.

Brexit has become the great British taboo.”
“But as the sixth anniversary of the UK’s vote to leave the EU approaches, economists are starting to quantify the damage caused by the erection of trade barriers with its biggest market, separating the “Brexit effect” from the damage caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.”
Read 4 tweets
Sep 11
UK must insulate homes or face a worse energy crisis in 2023, say experts

Research from the IfG found the UK scored worse than countries right across Europe with a range of climates in terms of the energy efficiency of its homes. theguardian.com/money/2022/sep…
“Citing analysis of a 2020 study, it found that a UK home with an indoor temperature of 20C and an outside temperature of 0C lost on average 3C after five hours – up to three times as much as homes in European countries such as Germany.”
“Experts believe a serious energy-efficiency programme could have a real impact within a year. The institute pointed to Germany as a success story, where grants, low-interest loans, tax rebates and free expert advice have all been used, resulting in high take-up figures.”
Read 6 tweets
Sep 11
As Russians Retreat, Putin Is Criticized by Hawks Who Sold His War

As Putin threw a billion-ruble party in Moscow Russia’s outraged military bloggers wrote re Balakliya

“Hello, hello, anybody home? Are we ready to fend off an attack in this direction?”
nytimes.com/2022/09/10/wor…
“Days later, it became apparent that the answer was no. Ukrainian forces overran Russia’s thin defenses in Balakliya and other nearby towns in northeastern Ukraine. By this weekend, some analysts estimated that the territory retaken by Ukraine amounted to about 1,000 square miles Image
In stark contrast with what we know to have been liberated by 🇺🇦 the Kremlin Russian press continues to feed astonishing garbage to its readers.

I am sure 🇺🇦 HAS suffered losses that will cause anguish to family, friends and brothers in arms. But nothing like the scale of 🇷🇺
Read 4 tweets
Sep 11
I wonder if the @DefenceHQ @UNOCHA could specify which if these grain shipments ended up in developing countries. It looks as if Turkey (that on this list seems to be the major destination port) might be a staging port. See first entry for example - Turkey FOR the Lebanon ImageImageImageImage
The table came from this document.

If one wishes to counter disinformation FROM Russia then stating the end point not just the initial destination point, seems quite important.

It is possible that @Turkey_Gov could give an urgent breakdown?

un.org/en/black-sea-g…
It looks as if OBVIOUSLY 420k tonnes at least has been exported (I forgot to underline an export to Yemen in the list) to listed developing countries

I omitted underlining Egypt so 305 tonnes should be added to the total
But has Turkey REALLY had the bulk of the shipped tonnage?
Read 12 tweets
Sep 10
Ukraine can now exploit Russia’s confusion, but must plan carefully to leave them cold, wet and vulnerable over winter

Offensive operations…depend upon concentration, tempo and surprise to succeed theguardian.com/world/commenti…
What should the West be doing to ensure optimal conditions?

“For Ukraine’s international partners there are three necessary lines of effort. First, they must keep up a steady supply of military materiel through the winter.”
“Second, they must guard against Russian unconventional warfare in their own states and manage the humanitarian challenges that will arise from winter conditions among Ukraine’s civilian population.”
Read 4 tweets

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