Thread by @getachew_temare

Thread:
As rumors about the continuation of peace talks between #Ethiopia and #Tigray surface, there are other important issues that need to be discussed.

Is Ethiopia still willing to control Tigray by war? Will it set up its own administration?
1/ #peacetalks

Based on my sources, I will try to deeply look at these questions. In order to understand the real cause of the resumption of war, it is important to look at the events in the capital prior to the war.2/ #TigrayIsSuffering #TigraySiege #TigrayFamine #EthiopianNewYear

The abbey government held a confidential meeting with key regional presidents, military generals, senior federal officials and Prosperity Party executives. They met in depth to discuss the situation in Tigray.3/

And they concluded that the region has not been impacted by the siege as planned by the government. The containment strategy has not been successful in the previous 1 year, evaluated the participants.

Rather,4/

Tigray is increasingly becoming a source of threat to the power of the national government. Therefore, immediate steps need to be taken before it has facilitated national military engagement by collaborating with other armed groups.
5/

To this end, the use of force should be considered the only option to cope with the situation. The other point of discussion was on the post-war administration of Tigray.
A range of options were considered.6/

3 different options were presented.
Firstly, govt senior officials pointed out that it would be beneficial to run the region with a military administration. But this will not be easily accepted by the international community, no matter what people's interest is.7/

As a result, military administration has been excluded. The second solution that has been considered is the administration of the region by non-Tigraians who will be nominated by the federal government. After extensive discussions,8/

the second option was deemed inappropriate because of the federal structure.
The third option that was discussed was the administration of Tigray by the Tigrayans who are members of Prosperity Party. The third alternative received considerable support.9/

And it was agreed that the region should be governed by them. For this reason, Dr Abraham belay and Zadig Abraham have been considered to be the next administrators of the region.
10/

My sources also reported that Zadig Abraha and Abraham Belay have their own opposing supporters on social media, although they are very few in number. They campaigned in favor of their preferences before and after the war.
11/

That being said, the next course of action discussed in the meeting was how to start the war. Although this plan was highly secret said, my sources, we were able to get the decisions taken during the meeting.12/

Abbey Ahmed said to the attendees that this should be clear to all of you. We won’t conduct any genuine peace negotiations with the Tigray forces. Our only option is to destroy them forever.13/

The only reason we engage in shuttle diplomacy is for consumption by the international community. Of course, the tigray forces want to destroy us too. Yet, We have the advantage all the time to destroy them.15/

This is a federal government. We have the biggest economy. There's plenty of human power. On top of that, we have reliable allies like Eritrea who want to fight even harder than you might think. 16

Although there may be issues with Eritrea in the way we interact, There is one thing that is unchanged from the very beginning. Isaias Afwerki, and the military have not mercy to the tigrayans.17

The bottom line is that we have every possibility of advancing the war to realize our dreams.
This must be clear again. We will not let any humanitarian aid go to Tigray.18/

The international community won’t do anything instead of threatening us with a continuous statement of concerns and sometimes poor economic sanctions. Eritrea has been under sanctions for years. The sanctions are no miracle, concluded Abiy Ahmed.
19/

The next discussion was about the objectives and details of the war by generals from ministry of defense. According to the generals’ explanation, The primary gateway for entering Tigray has been considered to be the western zone of Tigray.20

There are a number of reasons for the decision according to the my sources. The first and foremost decisive aspect of the decision is that Western Tigray has a large number of armed forces on part of the federal government.21/

There is an enormous presence of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces, the different Amhara forces and well situated Eritrean army.
22/

When Gen. Berhanu Jula explained the strategy, he said, it's a multiple strategic layer of defense protection that could not be broken, let alone by the besieged region, it cannot be broken by a well-armed and supplied adversary forces.
23

By conservative estimates, there are more than 200,000 troops with modern firepower and strategic control. On top of all our advantages, the Air Force is another firepower that makes our forces superior, Gen. Berhanu Jula said.25

Although we will not fully describe our military strategy here, continued Gen. Berhanu Jula said my sources, diversionary military confrontations will be launched in all directions in Tigray.
Blanket aerial attacks will also be launched in depth in the region26

to create a psychological impact on the community at large.
After elaborating the situation, the general affirmed that the army could control Tigray within a short period of time. As he said, for example, we will be in Shire by the 4th of September.
27

Participants questioned the reliability of the military approach. It underestimates the power of the Tigray forces and the will of the people. But the military generals explained to them that the army had tried hard enough to assess the situation using different methods.27

And we have completely restructured and corrected our previous major faults. Our government has equipped our troops with modern weapons so that they can perform their duties effectively. Thus, says the general, it is the opinion of the army that we will easily control. 28

There are other conducive conditions behind it as well. The people are fatigued of the siege. They will not fight as hard as they had in the past for obvious reasons, the military officials said.
29

After all the deliberations, The Prime Minister has given detailed instructions to government officials and military personnel to do their jobs.
Adanech Abebe's task in this regard was to bring the pro-PPP Tigrayans together.30

Many of them previously belonged to the provisional government of Tigray. They were dissolved and occasionally accused as moles working with Tigray forces. Some started to receive salaries from the government, according to my sources. #
End.
31/31

Unroll, @threadreaderapp