Thread by @AliVaez

From near-conclusion to near-collapse, back to near-conclusion, now edging again toward collapse: New @CrisisGroup report on the #Iran nuclear negotiations, which have had more twists than a telenovela and higher stakes than ever.🧵👇
crisisgroup.org/b87-middle-eas…

2| Talks to revive the JCPOA have been a peculiar, even sui generis exercise: 2 central protagonists with no direct engagement, negotiating a return to a deal they've already agreed to, with multiple parties engaged directly or indirectly as participants or mediators.

3| Despite these peculiarities, by early March a deal seemed within reach at #ViennaTalks: Technical text essentially complete, IAEA discussing a roadmap to resolve safeguards issues, planning for a ministerial meeting to seal things up. But then began the unravelling.

4| Russia introduces demands for sweeping sanctions exemptions. The EU puts the physical talks on hold. Progress on the safeguards investigation languishes. The U.S. and Iran exchange proposals back and forth, inconclusively, while shifting to a de facto Plan B.

5| In June, US & Iran meet in Doha for indirect talks. Doesn't go well. A US official said: "There's no proposal on which the Iranians have said yes [since March]. If their system doesn't have a consensus on returning to the deal, specifics don't seem to be the core issue".

6| With the impasse deepening, the EU throws the diplomatic dice in July by introducing a text that the parties discuss over several days in Vienna. It's the first time all sides are physically in the same place in about five months.
ft.com/content/e759d2…

7| Since then, however, it's been a step forward, a step back. Recent comments by US, E3 and EU officials, including from the usually optimistic @JosepBorrellF, about positions diverging rather than converging, and looming midterms invert recent predictions of imminence.

8| The points of divergence are by now familiar: Iranian demands over sanx relief and guarantees the Biden administration says it can't provide beyond its time in office, and the fate of the @IAEAOrg safeguards investigation into past activities at undeclared sites.

9| As we note in the report, on guarantees and safeguards, it may well be the case that the circles cannot be squared. Apropos of BoG and E3's weekend statement in particular, there is no way to get around the investigation other than Iran cooperating as it committed in March.

10| In the meantime, even as negotiations stall, Iran's nuclear activity does not.

Latest numbers of @IAEAOrg reflect what ought to be a deeply concerning state of play: Stockpiles growing, limited monitoring, breakout shrinking - though no indication of weaponization.

11| It's possible that a deus ex machina can change these dynamics in days or weeks ahead, but prospects seem increasingly bleak. In which case the default for all sides is an escalatory one we've already started to see: More sanctions pressure met by nuclear counterpressure.

12| And given the challenges in restoring a deal that already existed, the prospects for alternatives to the JCPOA - more-for-more or an interim agreement don't look very auspicious either. More modest single-step measures or humanitarian deal might be easier but not easy.

13| In which case, European or regional intermediaries may need to shift from hoping for the best to planning against the worst by quietly nudging Tehran and Washington in the direction of tacit understandings that keep a lid on nuclear and regional brinksmanship.

14| Notably, Iran's nuclear activity has little room for further expansion before it hits a potential tripwire for a covert or overt action. Steps such as increasing enrichment to 90%, expelling inspectors or making a move toward weaponization could get very ugly very quickly.

15| Other side of that coin is holding off on steps that, rather than increasing pressure on Iran to rejoin existing or unicorn better deal, could prompt a response that does the opposite. UN snapback right now or more sabotage vs nuke facilities carry precisely those risks.

16| We've also been seeing still-potent threat of regional escalation, notably in exchanges b/w Iran-backed groups & US forces in Syria. Ongoing threats against current/former US officials also a serious concern. Can't stress enough how bad it would be for IRI to pursue this.

17| For the cover photo of this report, we borrowed (h/t @PhilippeErrera) the cover page of the draft text as it was being negotiated in February.

"Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed", indeed.

And this image may well be the closest we'll come to seeing a final text.

18/18 Neither side may yet willing to call time on #ViennaTalks. But the proverbial window to reviving the JCPOA may not be closing - it may well now be closed. Having lost an opportunity to deliver a win-win, it falls on all sides to limit the lose-lose.
crisisgroup.org/b87-middle-eas…