Thread by @JaninaDill

Ukrainians are categorically opposed to political and territorial concessions, no matter the costs – new findings with @c_muellercrepon and @marnie_howlett written up for the @ConversationUK theconversation.com/ukrainians-are…
#Ukraine, #Proportionality Quick thread on technical details:

We surveyed 1160 Ukrainians in regions not affected by active fighting in late July and asked them to choose between “conjoint” hypothetical strategies of their government in the war against Russia, which came with randomized ‘benefits’ as well as ‘costs’ of war.

‘Benefits’ related to averting losses of political autonomy & territorial integrity, while costs included civilian & military casualties & risk of nuclear escalation. In many pairs, respondents had to make choices between harrowing (yet realistic) scenarios.

We find that 79% never choose a Russian-controlled government. Those who did, did so not to avoid war costs but to prevent territorial concessions. Clearly, respondents categorically rejected concessions no matter the immediate costs.

Yet, they were not unmoved by the costs of war – to the contrary, once concessions were off the table in a strategy pair, respondents did choose scenarios with a lower nuclear risk and less civilian and military fatalities.

In sum, we take these results as strong evidence for Ukrainians’ categorical rejection of political and territorial concessions. Attitudes do not follow the logic of a cost-benefit calculation, in stark tension with the frequent calls

on Ukraine to 'settle with Russia' to reduce the (immediate) costs of self-defense.

Huge shoutout and thanks to @PetroBurkovskyi, @dem_initiatives, as well as KiiS without whom this study would not have been possible!

For conjoint nerds: The paper includes a new method to compute attribute feature rankings and corresponding “nested” marginal means – happy to hear your thoughts! @c_muellercrepon for details!

The working paper is here janinadill.com/uploads/3/0/8/…