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Minna Ålander 🌻 Profile picture
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Sep 14 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Everyone else: *analysing the ingenious details of Ukrainian counteroffensive, like whoa*

German general: “sees no real counteroffensive in Ukraine”
m.focus.de/politik/auslan…
At least he admits that he was completely wrong as recently as two weeks ago when he thought that whole Donbas would be in Russian hands within 6 months
Reminds me of how the chief of the German intelligence service had to be rescued from Kyiv because he didn’t see the invasion coming m.focus.de/politik/auslan…
About the intelligence chief - ofc Focus will dramatise things, here’s an account from Spiegel: he was in Kyiv for talks, when it on Wednesday (23 Feb) started looking probable that the invasion would happen, he cancelled appointments on Thursday (when the invasion indeed began)
He then missed the first evacuation convoy for German officials and had to join another one which got stuck in the flows of people fleeing. The journey back was rather difficult and slow

spiegel.de/politik/deutsc…
This is interesting in the context of this pretty brutal interview of ex-CIA @john_sipher about his experiences with German intelligence agents. He says the govt didn’t want them to find stuff on Russia so they didn’t look. (It’s again in Focus ofc)
m.focus.de/politik/auslan…
And then there’s ofc ex-general Vad, Merkel’s long-time military advisor, who was for months against weapons deliveries to Ukraine and still 5 days ago said that “more complex weapons” wouldn’t make a difference (and Russia has the escalation dominance)
n-tv.de/mediathek/vide…
Thanks everyone for reminding of this: chief of Germany’s navy resigned over his 2 cents about Putin here just days before the invasion started.

His superior was, btw, general Zorn from the first tweet
m.dw.com/en/german-navy…

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More from @minna_alander

Minna Ålander 🌻 Profile picture
Sep 15
It’s absolutely correct to remind that this war is far from over. That’s why Ukraine needs strong & sustained support.

But one shouldn’t underestimate the Ukrainian successes of the past weeks and the substantial damage they have done to Russia either
So it’s entirely possible to cheer Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive while also being entirely realistic that the winter will be hard nonetheless.

Caution is important but should also be based on a realistic analysis of facts on the ground.
Russia has vast, but not endless resources. An overcautious assessment is likely to result from focusing too much on the still untapped Russian potential and too little on Ukraine’s proven abilities:

- quality vs. quantity of troops & equipment
- will to fight/ morale
Read 6 tweets
Minna Ålander 🌻 Profile picture
Sep 14
🇫🇮 Foreign Minister Haavisto confirms what I suspected to be behind Finland’s decision not to join 🇪🇪🇱🇻🇱🇹🇵🇱 in starting to reject all Russian citizens travelling with short-term Schengen visas: 🇫🇮 doesn’t consider all Russians a security threat, which would be required

Via @hsfi
Not surprising as it has been consistently emphasised in Finland that there’s no acute security threat directed against Finland currently (but Russia poses a future threat)
National and Schengen rules would allow a similar solution to be implemented in Finland as Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland will begin to implement from next Monday.

But it would require a decision to change the threat assessment, which Finland is reluctant to do
Read 6 tweets
Minna Ålander 🌻 Profile picture
Sep 14
It’s just bonkers that stuff like this has to be said and it speaks volumes of the persistent tendency to ignore Ukrainians as as voice in matters that directly concern… well Ukraine

This really needs to change. It was a huge problem since 2014 that the focus was on Russian POV
Not only Putin made the mistake of not understanding what was going on in Ukraine and how the country changed since 2014. Because of the lack of a Ukrainian perspective in the discourse about the “Crimea crisis” (😵‍💫), the West also got Ukraine wrong
The consequences were not trivial. So many analysts overestimated Russia and underestimated Ukraine. And that had also (fatal !) policy implications: thinking that it’s no use to arm Ukraine properly ahead of the invasion and that it would be too big a provocation towards Russia
Read 4 tweets
Minna Ålander 🌻 Profile picture
Sep 14
🇪🇺 Commission President @vonderleyen about to give the State of the European Union speech #SOTEU - all female commissioners dressed in Ukrainian colours 💛💙

🇪🇺🇺🇦

(Sorry for the horrible snapshot quality)
🇺🇦 First Lady @ZelenskaUA is present and getting a standing ovation
Von der Leyen: “glory to a country of European heroes, Slava Ukraini”

“Sanctions are here to stay, now is not the time for appeasement but for resolve”

“We’re in this for the long haul”
Read 7 tweets
Minna Ålander 🌻 Profile picture
Sep 14
German voters should not accept a sudden amnesia as an excuse for years of bad energy policy and lack of risk management. But of course one also has to remember that Merkel was reelected again and again and no one strongly opposed the said bad policy.
Merkel’s rationale after 2014 was that Ukraine was the problem, and therefore Ukraine should be circumvented in the gas supply, so that Germany won’t get dragged into “Ukrainian problems” and become involved in the conflict
In the beginning of Russia’s invasion this year the discourse in Germany was for months on end, how far can Germany go without becoming a “warring party”. It was meant in the literal sense but fact is that Germany has been one of the main protagonists all along.
Read 4 tweets
Minna Ålander 🌻 Profile picture
Sep 13
Hier ist es wieder, die false balance: ständig werden Leute eingeladen, über Themen zu sprechen, zu denen sie mehrmals demonstriert haben, schlicht nicht die Expertise zu haben. Nur weil sie aber eine *Meinung* dazu haben, wie auch immer abwegig die sein mag.
Es geht nicht darum, die freie Meinungsäußerung einzuschränken. Aber wenn Meinungen als Expertenwissen präsentiert werden, ist es hochproblematisch und macht eine sachliche Diskussion unmöglich. @dlfkultur
Wenn dann im schlimmsten Fall gar nicht mehr unterschieden wird, wer tatsächlich die relevante *Fach*expertise zu einem bestimmten Thema hat, kann das auch Folgen für politische Entscheidungsfindung haben.
Read 4 tweets

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