Thread by @Jack_B_Reid

Space Sustainability time at #SGC2022! We got
Dan Oltrogge of @COMSPOC, @LecasMorgane of @astroscale_HQ, and Al Tadros of @RedwireSpace on stage.

Livestream is here:

Dan starting off by recognizing that we are past the era of "space is big, don't worry about it."

Between ASATs, megaconstellations, and a very busy LEO, we can't ignore it anymore. Even if only ~25% of the orbit applications actually turn into reality.

@COMSPOC is an #SSA company who is thus quite invested in space sustainability.

@astroscale_HQ is a space debris removal company (who have an excellent podcast, btw)

@RedwireSpace does a lot of space hardware including sensors

Tadros: "Space is not a vacuum. It is littered with natural debris." Also argues that we shouldn't start launching as a solution. We can handle busy airports, we can handle a busy space environment.

Does say we can't keep designing satellites that spread debris incidentally.

Tadros: Space debris is a bunch of useful aluminum. "Let's go get it, people!"

Points out that military aircraft fly alongside commercial aircraft, so we secret missions aren't an excuse to finding a solution.

@LecasMorgane challenges the air traffic control metaphor. Thinks that nuclear power plant decommissioning is more apt, including governmental financial mechanisms to both support and incentivize safe behavior.

Oltrogge: Thinks we need to start by collaborating on sensors, the SSA component. We have to know where things are first.

Agrees with Morgane that air traffic and maritime traffic aren't great metaphors. In space the debris sticks around and everyone has to deal with it.

@LecasMorgane: Quite recently, we have started to see multiple national governments start to take actions around space debris and deorbiting.

For a technical examination of the recent @FCC actions on this front, I recommend this thread:

https://twitter.com/ProfHughLewis/status/1570367904217980931

Tadros: Companies first and foremost think about profit. Quotes Elon Musk saying that he wants Starlink to be the first space telecoms company to not go bankrupt. If you go bankrupt, you can't clean up space.

Oltrogge: "I was at the same presentation with Elon Musk." Points out that Starlink does share their location data freely. That's an important form of collaboration.

Satellites can last 15+ years and thus tend to lag standards pretty significantly. We need to be thinking ahead.

@LecasMorgane: Important to remind politicians the extent to which we use space in our daily life. GPS, banking, many countries are launching their first #EO satellites. We don't want to go back to the 1950s due to Kessler and drive all the space companies bankrupt.

Oltrogge: Supported the @SDAspacedata for years, which seeks "effective and efficient use of space for decades to come."

Argues that we need a holistic approach, involving both operations and design.

Tadros: Most companies deal with risk using insurance. Unless their premiums go up, they don't act. To get action, impact profitability, either with insurance or regulation.

@LecasMorgane: We need to have a better understanding of cost of a particular satellite to an orbital regime, other satellites, and society.

Tadros: Could use a deposit model, like the classic glass bottle deposit.

Morgane agrees, performance bonds are essentially deposits

Oltrogge: The long timescale is a hurdle to options like the deposit model or other finance side of things. Might just require regulation.

Tadros: Points out that #GEO sats are different, typically orbits quite valuable to the country underneath, so they don't necessarily need to be told that they need told to to "bury their dead satellite"

Dan asked about acceptable covariance numbers: Points to a paper from last year about what is achievable. I think it is this one: comspoc.com/Resources/Pape…

Question about @SSR_Rating feasibility/impact

@LecasMorgane encourages folks to come to Astroscale's #IAC2022 session. Short answer is SSR and performance bonds do have an impact. Points to an Australian study on this in the mining industry. Not a perfect solution.

Question about old debris and legality about grabbing other people's stuff (if you can even figure out who it belongs to):

Oltrogge plugs his IAC session, A6.2, looks at identifying the highest risk objects that we should target first. Says governments talking about the top 50.

Question about small debris

Oltrogge: Old rule of thumb is >1cm can kill a sat, which is what he is primarily interested in. We don't have good info on pieces below those, even though they can still hurt a sat.

Tadros: @RedwireSpace is part of commercial space station team. Dealing with micrometeorite impacts is mostly an issue of designing for it, plus situating the station in a low debris region.

Question about space archaeology (paging @drspacejunk) and whether we should preserve some space "debris"

@LecasMorgane knows of a London startup who want to bring back a rocket stage but isn't familiar with this area.

Question about emerging countries and norms

Oltrogge: Most of the original space treaties are decades old and primarily written by the spacefaring nations of the time. We got a bunch of new participants now and could do with updating our rules/norms. Points to Russian ASAT test

Question about concerns around dual-use with debris removal + on-orbit servicing.

Morgane: @astroscale_HQ has a major emphasis on transparency and be as careful as possible to only grab stuff that they have clear permission for.

Question about dealing with the Kessler Syndrome situation.

Tadros: We can't clean up relatively stationary trash in the Pacific, we certainly can't do it in orbit. Best to prevent it from happening.

Oltrogge: "That's why you guys are here"

Question about handling increasingly small satellites (<10cm)

Tadros: "Let me give the downer first again" We are there. Chipsats exist. Sats you can only see with a microscope exist.

Oltrogge: Sprites are another example. A deployment canister dumped out 200 of them. Needs to be definition work on what debris is. Right now it is whether it can communicate. Might need to change. ISO best practice is that sats too small to be tracked shouldn't be deployed.

Question about designing for end of life, particularly since "it is an ambitious for a space company to assume that it won't go bankrupt.

Tadros: Companies are thinking about end of life. Points to @OneWeb's grapple points, Starlinks quick decay if dead upon launch.

@LecasMorgane: In Europe there is progress being made on a communal fund that can be used to deal with satellites from bankrupt companies.

Oltrogge: Bankruptcy is protection from creditors but countries can still be liable under the Outer Space Treaty.

Before concluding Tadros plugs his IAC paper as well, on ISAM