A Sources and Uses analysis for any company can be helpful when analyzing a potential investment #SMB#investing#valuation
Let's look at $ADBE 👇(1-5)
1/5 $ADBE 's
Sources: Primarily cash flow from operations. Debt is used for acquisitions.
Uses: A capital light business so little on Capex. The main uses are M&A and Buybacks.
Let's review why $ADBE buys back so much stock, but first we need to look at returns on capital
2/5 During past 5 years, $ADBE increased sales by $8.5b, and Opr Inc by $3.6b for an incremental margin of 42.8%
Same period, added $8.6b in total capital & generated a 42% return on that capital. Impressive!
Total capital incudes NWC, PPE, & Goodwill/Intangibles
3/5 Adobe earns high returns on tangible capital (excl Goodwill) and total capital
Ttl Capital is the best measure b/c $ADBE is acquisitive
ROIC improved from 2017 to 2021, due to improvements in operating margins 29% -> 39%
Margins are the primary driver for high ROICs
4/5 Adobe's Sales to capital ratio has remained flat from 2017 to 2021 at .99x
A .99x is a 1-to-1 ratio of sales to capital. If sales were to double, so would the capital base
This suggests $ADBE has little ability to improve its capital usage to increase ROIC
5/5 Why does $ADBE buyback so much stock?
$ADBE earns such high ROICs (39%) and has very little reinvestment requirements that the company has lots of cash available for distribution that benefits shareholders.
This is why ROIC matters
These are signs of a very good business
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Want a quick "back of the napkin" forecasting tool to estimate future capital requirements?
Use the Sales-to-Capital ratio
Total Capital = NWC + PPE, net + Goodwill/Intangibles
(For private co with accel depr use gross PPE)
Explanation... 👇
1/x What is it?
Sales to capital (S/C) ratio looks at how much revenue a company generate per $1 of capital
$1mm of revenue using $600K of capital equates to a 1.66x Sales to Capital ratio
Why does this matter? 👇
2/x
Observations:
- The ratio is industry specific - unit economics influence & bound the ratio
- For established co's, the S/C ratio is fairly stable & can increase over time
- For young co's, it is generally low, but will increase over time
1/X @realEstateTrent A response to to your tweet re: rising rates & RE cap rates
Any investment, business or real estate, requires the investor to discount the future cash flows based on the required return
Here is how investors determine the required return (aka discount rate)
2/X A discount rate matches cash flows (CF)
• A CF to equity holders only = use equity discount rate
• A CF to Invested Capital (or NOI in Real Estate) uses a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of debt & Equity
Let’s see how the equity & debt rates are calculated…
3/X Equity discount rate
Can use the build up method (BUM) - I think it’s intuitive:
Risk free rate
+Return Risk Premium (return over Govt bonds) many use historical returns
+ Idiosyncratic risk Premium
= Total Equity Discount Rate
If your cash conversion cycle (CCC) is POSITIVE, then that means you need Working Capital funded by the Owner to operate the business.
Let’s explore 👇🏼
1/9 The CCC is a comprised of 3 things: 1. How quickly sales turn to cash aka Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 2. How quickly inventory turns to cash (Aka DIO) (exclude if a service biz) 3. How quickly you must pay suppliers/ vendors, payables (aka DPO)
The formula 👇🏼
2/9 DSO + DIO - DIO = CCC
In layman terms
The company’s ability to convert operations to cash is a function of collecting cash sales (DSO) PLUS how quickly it can sell inventory (DIO) MINUS how quickly it needs to pay everyone
The result is the number of DAYS this process takes
1/ Company’s will pay high premiums for a good biz. Classic example is Kraft-Heinz. Both CO’s had high ROIC Tangible Capital combined at 30%.
BUT the TOTAL ROIC after the merger was 6%.
Went from 30% to 6%. Why?
They paid too high a price.
2/ Tangible ROIC like Kraft-Heinz make investors salivate. You cannot buy a biz for the invested capital (IC) amount only. No one would sell it since the IC generates valuable cash flows.
BUT paying too much for the cash flows reduces any benefits of the high Tangible ROIC biz