Thread by @HeliosRunner

Hello There!
Today, russians are going to suffer... nice surprises to come, everywhere...

2/ yesterday being very cautious, Ukr intel assessed :
"The enemy has recovered a little bit more from the shock in the #Kharkiv region and began to put up a, more or less, reasonable defense past the #Oskil.

There is also a tangible new front line that is emerging approximately

3/ "along" the Oskil River, down east of #Izyum.
We push from #Slavyansk to the north. (Steadily & with determination but trying to not "overreach" or get caught being reckless & receiving more damages than inflicted)"
"Our task is to take full control of #Liman and then go to

4/ "the Luhansk region and to #Svatove and/or cut off #Severodonetsk from the supply from the north.

The Russian army is preparing for the defense of #Svatove though as a stronghold and road junction.
and we are not near it."

If we capture it, we take control of a significant

5/ part of the "heart" of North Luhansk and will break their full autonomy there. their claims would vanish about that famous "independant" #Luhansk.

"Then block & threaten the enemy from the north, moving south to #Severodonetsk & #Luhansk administrative would be next.

6/ "The dynamics will be clear in the coming days."
Hence my first commentary of the day..
"It will depend on the coordinated operation of the military machine & also part luck if it goes as intended"

7/ "We will bite into the defenses there, and if we manage to quickly take Liman, then we will enter the #Luhansk region, for which the Russian military leaders have signed up several times. Affirming that Russia is there forever.)

8/ So little debrief here :first of all about the lines of transports & roads. in a global context of railway lines #Svatove is important for THAT part of #luhansk , quite less for the entire Oblast to be honest, but it is neverless, quite important for the next step (i'll tell)

9/ bc then that would mean that Ukr would have been able to establish a solid front in that part, would have solved logistics (bridges/roads/suplly chain) & north def frontier "headaches" (you don't want to get pinned down there when u need all your "workforce" on the frontline

10/ wich means then that you can move Ru from defense 1 zone to defense 2 zone (#Rovenki #Ровеньки/ #Starobilsk #Старобільськ ) which would be AWESOME, don't get me wrong, but then there would another huge battle to do in order to fully secure the north part of the Oblast.

11/ this is why these coming 48H/72h are actually so important now, almost like the first attack on #Balakliia
#Балаклія ,because right now, Ukr troops are not moving forward like a CCCP army with tons of heavy armored vehicles, which is ok right now bc Ru are still "dumb" abt it

12/ but they are now sending more troops & with a "clear" view of what they want to defend, and the means behind it. so Ukr can advance & cause important losses here and there, but at one point, if you don't want to get "stuck in the middle" you also need huge power.

13/ As good as Ukr are, they can't let the Ru dug (like orcs) and fortified every inches along that new line of defense, and "wait" for later, or you will eventually have to face the same very hard kind of defense there is now in the south & u would have your back along the Oskil

14/ so there is no direct answer now to what will happen next. only hard battles & quick decision to make & precise strikes to perform. the battle will intensify again in coming days as Russian want them "out" up to the #Oskil ..

15/ another direct intel was recorded confirming all this :
"The enemy is digging in, withdrawing troops and reserves from the Russian border deep into Luhansk region
the Rashists are preparing for defense from #Svatove to #Troitske

16/ "Mass escapes from the occupied territories continue. the occupiers and their collaborators are hurrying to Russia with the loot. thorough checks are carried out at the border and men are almost never released (directly take to the front)
Soon, Russia may even close the

17/ borders with the so-called "lenere/denere"(LNR/DNR) altogether (all of them), because they do not need them, not now, and not eight years ago"
which is quite true, Putin does not give a fck about all these people.. he will "use" them all if he can just to keep the territories

18/ up to the end of the winter (because he is still playing his "long game" & wants to see Europe fall down into his hands... hence the "propaganda" that all pro russians are spreading now), also then he will use his new "army" recruits to push more.

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1571032163147206656

19/ because in January he will have the "new" Russia army which is seeking to increase the size of its military by 137,000 to 1.15 million.
& even u take a regular Ru "tooth to tail" ratio (abt 2:1) in degrade mode, & extract all admin & back support, it seems that the goal would

20/ would be to inject around 20k to 25k "fresh troops" to complete the existing troops & wait for the complition of "volunteer" BTG from all admin region & also more "convicted" from jails..
& in his minds, this will exactly "do the job" without even alarming all his "friends"

21/ families in Moscou or else where, so he would avoid a total panic of the Ru "rich & prosperous" population in the middle of winter, & in his mind it is absolutely feasible. he keeps like old soviet thoughts : "sending tons of equipment & men, even bad, it'll do the trick"