Hello There!
Today, russians are going to suffer... nice surprises to come, everywhere...
2/ yesterday being very cautious, Ukr intel assessed :
"The enemy has recovered a little bit more from the shock in the #Kharkiv region and began to put up a, more or less, reasonable defense past the #Oskil.
There is also a tangible new front line that is emerging approximately
3/ "along" the Oskil River, down east of #Izyum.
We push from #Slavyansk to the north. (Steadily & with determination but trying to not "overreach" or get caught being reckless & receiving more damages than inflicted)"
"Our task is to take full control of #Liman and then go to
4/ "the Luhansk region and to #Svatove and/or cut off #Severodonetsk from the supply from the north.
The Russian army is preparing for the defense of #Svatove though as a stronghold and road junction.
and we are not near it."
If we capture it, we take control of a significant
5/ part of the "heart" of North Luhansk and will break their full autonomy there. their claims would vanish about that famous "independant" #Luhansk.
"Then block & threaten the enemy from the north, moving south to #Severodonetsk & #Luhansk administrative would be next.
6/ "The dynamics will be clear in the coming days."
Hence my first commentary of the day..
"It will depend on the coordinated operation of the military machine & also part luck if it goes as intended"
7/ "We will bite into the defenses there, and if we manage to quickly take Liman, then we will enter the #Luhansk region, for which the Russian military leaders have signed up several times. Affirming that Russia is there forever.)
8/ So little debrief here :first of all about the lines of transports & roads. in a global context of railway lines #Svatove is important for THAT part of #luhansk , quite less for the entire Oblast to be honest, but it is neverless, quite important for the next step (i'll tell)
9/ bc then that would mean that Ukr would have been able to establish a solid front in that part, would have solved logistics (bridges/roads/suplly chain) & north def frontier "headaches" (you don't want to get pinned down there when u need all your "workforce" on the frontline
10/ wich means then that you can move Ru from defense 1 zone to defense 2 zone (#Rovenki#Ровеньки/ #Starobilsk#Старобільськ ) which would be AWESOME, don't get me wrong, but then there would another huge battle to do in order to fully secure the north part of the Oblast.
11/ this is why these coming 48H/72h are actually so important now, almost like the first attack on #Balakliia #Балаклія ,because right now, Ukr troops are not moving forward like a CCCP army with tons of heavy armored vehicles, which is ok right now bc Ru are still "dumb" abt it
12/ but they are now sending more troops & with a "clear" view of what they want to defend, and the means behind it. so Ukr can advance & cause important losses here and there, but at one point, if you don't want to get "stuck in the middle" you also need huge power.
13/ As good as Ukr are, they can't let the Ru dug (like orcs) and fortified every inches along that new line of defense, and "wait" for later, or you will eventually have to face the same very hard kind of defense there is now in the south & u would have your back along the Oskil
14/ so there is no direct answer now to what will happen next. only hard battles & quick decision to make & precise strikes to perform. the battle will intensify again in coming days as Russian want them "out" up to the #Oskil ..
15/ another direct intel was recorded confirming all this :
"The enemy is digging in, withdrawing troops and reserves from the Russian border deep into Luhansk region
the Rashists are preparing for defense from #Svatove to #Troitske
16/ "Mass escapes from the occupied territories continue. the occupiers and their collaborators are hurrying to Russia with the loot. thorough checks are carried out at the border and men are almost never released (directly take to the front)
Soon, Russia may even close the
17/ borders with the so-called "lenere/denere"(LNR/DNR) altogether (all of them), because they do not need them, not now, and not eight years ago"
which is quite true, Putin does not give a fck about all these people.. he will "use" them all if he can just to keep the territories
18/ up to the end of the winter (because he is still playing his "long game" & wants to see Europe fall down into his hands... hence the "propaganda" that all pro russians are spreading now), also then he will use his new "army" recruits to push more.
19/ because in January he will have the "new" Russia army which is seeking to increase the size of its military by 137,000 to 1.15 million.
& even u take a regular Ru "tooth to tail" ratio (abt 2:1) in degrade mode, & extract all admin & back support, it seems that the goal would
20/ would be to inject around 20k to 25k "fresh troops" to complete the existing troops & wait for the complition of "volunteer" BTG from all admin region & also more "convicted" from jails..
& in his minds, this will exactly "do the job" without even alarming all his "friends"
21/ families in Moscou or else where, so he would avoid a total panic of the Ru "rich & prosperous" population in the middle of winter, & in his mind it is absolutely feasible. he keeps like old soviet thoughts : "sending tons of equipment & men, even bad, it'll do the trick"
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1/ breaking !! Si l'on reprend la carte que j'ai faite il y a 2 jours (j'ai l'impression que ça fait 1 semaine), voici donc quel serait apparemment le nouveau "deal" (plus ou moins approximatif sur la profondeur du corridor) que Putin voudrait imposer à l'Ukraine :
Alors ds les
2/ faits cela voudrait dire cession complète et "signée en tant que telle par traité!" de l'ensemble de l'Oblast de Donestk contre à peu près l'equivalent en terme de territoire des Oblasts de Kherson et Zaporijia, MAIS en laissant libre accès à la Crimée, pour les Ru du Donbas,
3/ par le biais d'un corridor (là je ne sais pas la largeur, mais en cherchant sur les tg Ru d'officiers que je suis) il semblerait qu'il faudrait qu'ils aient une profondeur stratégique suffisante en cas d'attaque des UKR dnc ils demanderait un retrait de qq 10aines de km
About Trump's Move :
1/12 Trump just blasted India for buying Russian oil and "not caring abt Ukraine deaths," announcing major tariffs. But his selective outrage and convenient timing reveal this isn't about Ukraine at all. Here's what's really happening.
2/ This morning, China essentially told Trump to pound sand (GFY) regarding his threats. Yet Trump focuses his rage on India - a democracy and strategic partner - while giving China a pass. If this was really about Ukraine, why not target the bigger Russian oil buyer first?
3/ Perfect Timing for US Corporations. These tariffs come just as companies like Apple and others were eyeing India as their new manufacturing haven - cheap, qualified labor to replace China. Convenient how tariffs now create "pressure" for better terms for US corporate re-entry
on this Assange release event...
(political choice before big next election)
let me put this link back here to show you that Ru were also already there for "long shots" way back then...
Network/ppl level/influencers/media/politics/"hacktivists" etc etc
3/ also a must read for people who will say next "ho! i didn't know about that..
and keep in mind Mueller investigation cannot give you half of the extent of the reality as they never had access to all the CIA sources... washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/…
2/ #TaurusLeak reveals the complete breach of all secured protocol / incompetence of German officers in the #Luftwaffe - German gov is really mad about it right now. Also all intel services are all hands on deck right now.
3/ so allegedly "being wiretapped, conspiratorial telephone conference by the Bundeswehr leadership, they plan to trick the federal government regarding the 🇩🇪 cruise missile in order to bring about delivery. Goal? Among other things, the attack on the Crimean Bridge" (sic)
voilà voilà... j'en ai encore parlé hier soir
(j'ai juste supprimer le post hier soir parce que j'avais trop de messages, mais il semble maintenant que tout le monde va être au courant)
Par contre bcp de choses sont encore à régler. ce n'est pas facile surtout en ce moment.. 1/
2/ Paris et Kiev finalisent les préparatifs de la visite du président @EmmanuelMacron en #Ukraine, en se concentrant sur un accord pour que la France fournisse des avions de combat multirôles #Mirage 2000D. Le ministre ukrainien de la Défense, Rustem #Umerov, est attendu
@EmmanuelMacron 3/ cette semaine à Paris pour finaliser les accords avec le ministre français de la Défense @SebLecornu . Le plan initial prévoyait le transfert de six avions, mais ce nombre est désormais porté à 12. La France recherche également des missiles et des solutions de formation, avec
1/ #Gaza map update #IDF despite really hard battle involving dismounting troops/Spec forces at night r allegedly breaking through to Gaza City center, but as we can't confirm it, we can still produce this map that is made on only verified locations (blue limits for IDF)
#Israel
2/ from yesterday evening. i also had direct infos that the area between the north south axis, west to the defensive walls (stripe areas) are indeed totally under complete surveillance. What i was just not able to figure out is if there is a junction with troops coming from Beit
3/ hanoun or not. Also infos from journalist i've translate seems to confirms all the geoloc that were assessed to make this map.
Actually what an israeli journalist said on the ground is that all the main axis are AT least under direct control up to 500m to be able to interdict