Its impact on Japan is likely to be severe as it will arrive as a formidable typhoon and is forecast to be over Southern Japan for several hours.
The animation above shows 24 hours till 3pm CEST yesterday - at the point that #Nanmadol became a super typhoon.
This animation shows the typhoon's subsequent development till 9am CEST today.
Here's a closeup of the pinwheel like formation which is typical of West Pacific Super Typhoons.
The next three tweets show the latest GFS forecasts for the storm over the next 84-96 hours. Only gradual weakening is expected as it approaches Japan - fortunately it is expected to be moving fairly rapidly but extreme rain and wind impacts are forecast.
The readings for integrated water vapour transport - up to 6 tonnes per M2 per second here are off the scale as the the storm makes landfall in Southern Japan.
Hurricane force winds will arrive in roughly 18 hours and impact Southern Japan for at least 48 hours.
The MLSP forecast provides the baseline for much of the forecast and the storm will weaken once it starts to interact with the land, but not a lot. As you can see the center of the storm (most intense rain and wind) remains over land. Intensity forecasting is subject to error.
And finally we have the accumulating rainfall forecast. Which fortunately shows a relatively confined area of extreme rainfall - with a maximum of 27 inches - however localised rainfall causing flash flooding could exceed this by a significant margin.
For completeness here are four different rainfall solution plots from four different models - AccessG, ECMWF, GFS and CMC.
At this point following the Qatar obscenity Israel is now breaking the internet and the world.
something decisive is needed to break Israel - a peaceful action that will work and show the world that justice still exists and that peace is possible.
A wise friend proposed a brilliant idea. Every nation on earth which is willing and able should send a frigate to the Mediterranean Sea and take a message to Israel that it cannot ignore.
The foundations of the United Nations itself are now crumbling under the weight of the Gaza Obscenity and nations like Britain that seem to have been turned are facing protest and resistance of epic proportions from their citizens.
I’ll be posting videos and news here on Twitter from the flotilla which is about to depart from Majorca for Tunis on the first leg of the journey to Gaza.
More boats are expected to join the flotilla from Europe and North Africa along the way as it moves west across the Mediterranean. @GretaThunberg is making the voyage again and Israel will not be able to contain or stop this flotilla most likely. And definitely not the publicity.
This first video is of a wind squall hitting one of the boats as it departs Barcelona.
Netanyahu has proposed a pathway to end the war in Gaza under pressure primarily from the U.S. UK, France & Germany. Spain and Ireland and several other European nations & the European Commission.
The @israelipm sounds defeated. Hopefully this is the beginning of the end. The deal being offered to Gaza is far from perfect but it sounds workable in Netanyahus outline.
@IsraeliPM Whether it will be approved by Hamas however is unclear and rather complicated - as it’s unclear who inside Gaza would be in a position to respond to the offer. Many of Hamas’s fighters may prefer to die as martyrs also than to agree to any deal.
This is pathetic from @realDonaldTrump he’s lashing out like an angry teenager. Jerome Powell says he’s included a the costs of a building that was completed years ago in his very public attack on the FED Chair.
Trump has completely lost the plot. The single most damaging thing that he could do to undermine confidence in the U.S. dollar (which he publicly claims to want to deflate and there by make all Americans poorer - is to attack the Federal Reserve and the SEC.
@realDonaldTrump Trump is setting fire to the dollar to distract from his Epstein mess what a complete baby.
I attended the Bonn climate talks. They were very disappointing to everyone. The elephant in the room was (of course) the U.S. decision to withdraw from the talks altogether.
Unfortunately.. perhaps intentionally in advance of the continuation of climate talks regardless of #US_Disintigration the talks were also very sparsely attended particularly by activists and NGOs. The reason for this was @elonmusk destroying @-USAID.
@elonmusk As you can see the USAID Twitter account is now dead - deleted which is an appalling act of vandalism executed by Elon and his tech-bro team of teenagers.