More evidence that we saw in #Sweden was the collapse of the center right – rather than the surge of the extreme right or an increase in polarization. Chart from pollofpolls.se #val2022 #valet2022 /1 
The support for the Sweden Democrats (yellow line) rose in 2014–15, when Sweden had a record number of asylum seekers scb.se/hitta-statisti… It's been relatively constant since. In Dec 2015, support for SD was 20%, within the margin of error of the election result (20.5%). /2
By contrast, the Conservative party has seen seen a sharp decline. They reached 34.8% in 2010-12, but has shrunk steadily ever since. Their election performance was a catastrophic 19.1%. In a mere decade, they lost about 4/9 of their voters! /3
SD did have a small uptick in the weeks leading up to the election. That may have been enough to push the right-wing bloc over the finish line. I don't know what caused the uptick, but it's small enough to be a matter of random fluctuation. /4
As @jonas_wikstrom points out, the data give no support for the notion that SD is an unstoppable force. In fact, they've been idling since 2015. /5
https://twitter.com/jonas_wikstrom/status/1570669283918909440?s=20&t=erDcZtqRsfFsnu443Yf-IA
There are lots of questions to answer, and a great deal of data to analyze. But some of the narratives that have been floating around since the election can safely be abandoned. /6
More info in the thread below. /fin
https://twitter.com/ErikAngner/status/1570326960341135365?s=20&t=AMP05U61kkoKURLwcgxytA
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