Shyam Sekhar Profile picture
Sep 18 4 tweets 2 min read
Assume your stock is trading at 1000.
PE is 50.
EPS is 20.
If earnings go up by 15% &
PE multiple falls by 30% .
What will be the impact on your investment?

If you understand this simple math, it will help you learn what 100 videos on #BAAP #Quality stocks don't teach you.
Assume your stock is trading at 1500.
PE is 75.
EPS is 20.
If earnings go up by 15% &
PE multiple falls by 30% .
What will be the impact on your investment?

When PE is higher, derating can hurt far more. If you fall from a higher place, then the injury will be worse.
Simple.
Assume your stock is trading at 2000.
PE is 100.
EPS is 20.
If earnings go up by 15% &
PE multiple falls by 30% .
Imagine the PE contracts and earnings expand at the same rate 2 years in a row.

What will be the impact on your investment?

What if this happens 3 years in a row?
If you have completed these simple exercises & understand how this easy math can negate story telling . you earned your Honorary PhD in #BAAP investing. From now, you needn't watch videos on #Quality stocks.

In the end, what you learnt in class 8 beats Ivy league bullshit.

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More from @shyamsek

May 23
Here is a thread on #SBI. It simply shows what storytelling is lying all the time to you.
"Changing timelines can change the Narrative and numbers." The next line of defense is just about to be taken down. So,here is the first image that seems to support that arugument. But, wait.
"But,how do I know when to buy and sell. I need enough track record or clear buy signals." This crowd would have failed miserably because when the signals and charts were perfect, only losses followed.
Read 5 tweets
May 21
The space where institutions don’t own any shares, or own insignificant part of the equity maybe the GoTo place for new ideas.

If you can find five to seven good companies in the next two years and buy enough of them, you are going to remember this phase all your life.

1/5
Why should you not look at companies with heavily institutionalised ownership? Simple. Institutions will be forced to change their portfolios in tthe next two years. They will be forced to sell down their weaker, non performing stock holdings and buy newer stock ideas. 2/5
By not buying stocks which are heavily institutionally owned, you will avoid facing the brutal selling and seeing your portfolio value go down very badly. This risk is real in illiquid stocks especially in #smallcap and #midcap space. Escape the drawdown and steer to safety. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
Apr 19
A #PMS must show performance. No escaping it. But,the crucial questions for an investor to choose a PMS must be more nuanced. What fee do I pay in bad times? Do i pay more fees in good times? Is the product going to do anything special for me if i wish to be more ambitious? 1/7
A #PMS which mechanically invests money into its model portfolio just like a mutual fund usually does can only offer you a mediocre experience.

Investing is commoditized and mechanized. Some dealer is blindly filling up stocks like a petrol pump attendant fills your car tank.2/7
Your whole purpose of choosing a #PMS over a mutual fund scheme is to make your money work smarter & to get a more personalised process. Afterall, a more ambitious investor needs a superior investment approach to meet his specific needs. You can't have a "carbon copy" PF. 3/7
Read 7 tweets
Feb 16
When I look back at what mattered most in early years of investing, the answer is simple.

Avoiding permanent loss of capital.

This always happens when markets reverse from a peak & we are stuck in the wrong stocks.Also, stock specific risks are felt more then. @ithoughtmfd 1/n
In previous bull runs, we had two sides to the market. One, richly valued. Another, under valued.

Now, markets are far more expensive across the board. Valuation excesses are all around, including in mediocre companies. The scope to lose money has risen more. @ithoughtmfd 2/n
What happens usually is this. New entrants make lots of money. They overtrade. Speculate in FnO. Transact too much. Are ready to buy any name for a quick trade. They sell good stocks to buy lower quality ones. Most investors are ill prepared with no safeguards. 3/n @ithoughtmfd
Read 5 tweets
Feb 2
In investing, choices matter. Even with the right choices, you need a sound investment process. Where you invest, how you deploy & how you manage the investment journey are 3 critical success factors.

Product investing like MF's & ETF's need this even more. @ithoughtmfd 1/n
Bull markets and past performance in euphoric times make fund investing look too easy. Bear markets make the same MF's look difficult to hold on. Recent performance often misleads more than it guides you. Sustainability often fails to show up in past performance. @ithoughtmfd 2/n
Selecting the best products is an art. So, when you simplify fund selection to rely only on past performance, you select funds as their performance is probably peaking out. Most people often do just this. In bull runs, such products are easily missold to them. @ithoughtmfd 3/n
Read 5 tweets
Dec 29, 2021
Time to take stock. It is 29 months since @ithoughtpms rolled out @SolitairePMS. We began modestly. We kept it simple.
Fixed fees.
No distributors.
No promotions.
No influencers.
No model portfolios.
Bespoke portfolios.
We wanted to build a feature rich, investor centric PMS. 1/n
We invested gradually. Even as we finished deploying in Feb 2019, covid struck. Clearly, our portfolio was not exactly positioned for a pandemic. In fact, we had the wrong positioning.We were overweight pandemic victims. But, we stuck to our approach & built on opportunities. 2/n
The strategy gradually began to work. Interestingly, it worked superbly for investors who believed in the philosophy & scaled up using the opportunity. Multibaggers that investors wished to own simply landed in portfolios. Stocks found their rightful portfolio positions. 3/n
Read 10 tweets

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