Thread by @OxanaShevel

Hi new followers! Since u followed me after #APSA2022 where @kath_stoner, @darelasn, Olena Nikolayenko & I disputed Mearsheimer’s claim that NATO expansion made Putin 2 attack 🇺🇦, I put together🧵summarizing my comments. Thx @PopovaProf & @dandrezner 4 live-tweeting panel! 1/21

My broader argument was that accurate analysis of the war needs to take seriously 2 things not taken seriously by great power politics realist analysis: 1) dynamics of domestic politics in 🇷🇺 & 🇺🇦, especially identity politics, and b) Ukrainian agency. 2/21

JM claim that NATO expansion provoked🇷🇺 2 invade 🇺🇦 & that Putin has no intent 2 destroy 🇺🇦 sovereign statehood is wrong. As theoretical approach it denies agency even 2🇷🇺 (it had no choice but 2 lash out, while NATO did), while 🇺🇦 is but a pawn of great powers. Also 3/21

the arg is contradicted by evidence. NATO’s open door policy reflected sovereignty norm giving any state right 2 seek any alliance, but in practice 🇺🇦 membership was never realistic possibility. 🇫🇷 & 🇩🇪 were not going 2 allow it, Orban could reliably veto it & after R annexed 4/

Crimea 🇺🇦 NATO prospect was even less likely as 🇺🇦 had territorial dispute. Putin of course new all this & yet he invaded. Further, 5/21

if NATO on 🇷🇺’s borders is “existential threat,” why barely murmur from 🇷🇺 when 🇫🇮& 🇸🇪 impending membership brought NATO – & all its weapons-so-threatening-2-🇷🇺 dramatically closer? Why withdraw troops from 🇫🇮border rather than go ballistic facing now-so-much-greater threat? 6/21

Because invasion wasn’t about NATO expansion but about dominating Ukraine. JM’s claim that there is no evidence that Putin wants 2 destroy 🇺🇦 state independence is outright preposterous in light of repeated claims that 🇺🇦& 🇷🇺 r 1 nation & 🇺🇦 state is artificial construct 7/21

while occupational army pursues genocidal policies targeting for arrest, torture & death all who support Ukrainian sovereignty & oppose occupational regime. 8/21

Further evidence that Putin’s beef w/🇺🇦 is not just abt NATO. His demands on 🇺🇦 long went much deeper than foreign policy alliances. He objected & tried 2 dictate on all matters of purely domestic politics, from decentralization, 2 lang, education, historical memory & more. 9/21

Great power politics analysis gets causes of invasion wrong & also offers poor (& dangerous) policy recommendations. Insistence by “realists” that giving Putin “off ramp” & placating him w/territorial concessions is way 2 lasting peace is both deeply immoral & based on fantasy 10

Far from “saving lives,” this recommendation endorses abandoning millions of 🇺🇦ns 2 genocidal policies of 🇷🇺occupation. Horrors of #Bucha & #Izium repeat daily on every inch of occupied territory. Those advocating such “peacemaking” r endorsing war crimes. Yes, you do. 11/21

Morality aside, rec 2 appease Putin w/territory as way 2 bring peace is based on nothing but wishful thinking. P wasn't deterred or placates but only emboldened when his previous wars of aggression in 🇷🇺’s claimed sphere of influence went largely unpunished (🇬🇪 in 2008 ... 12/21

Crimea and Eastern Donbas in 2014). There is no empirical evidence 2 conclude that if he's rewarded w/further territory in 🇺🇦 he'll be finally satisfied rather than emboldened 2 push further, after rearming & regrouping, till 🇺🇦is “denazified”- read fully vassalized by 🇷🇺 13/21

🇺🇦-ians know this, they r fighting existential fight 4 the right 2 exist as nation & state. They know that path 2 peace & 2 saving lives lies not in giving more territory 2 🇷🇺but standing 2 aggressor & forcing him out. Their leaders keep telling you this, citizens show this 14/21

in opinion polls & sacrifices on battlefield. It's the height of westsplaining & imperialistic attitude 2 disregard these facts & 🇺🇦 voices & instead tell 🇺🇦that if they want peace they should just give in 2Putin. End 2 war will b dictated by outcome on battlefield &yes 🇺🇦 15/21

can & will win, at what cost & when depends on western mil aid. Will Putin nuke if he doesn’t get his way in 🇺🇦? Unlikely as it would destroy 🇷🇺too. Evidence shows that, when confronted by determined opponent, as typical bully Putin backs down rather than escalates. 16/21

Ukraine sank Moskva, bombed “existential” Crimea, received offensive weapons, & humiliated 🇷🇺w/crushing military defeats in Kyiv and Kharkiv oblasts, yet he hasn't nuked us all. 17/21 foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/08/vla…

Analyses ignoring 🇺🇦agency r also wrong in their portrayal of🇺🇦 as puppets fighting proxy war of NATO bidding. NATO & west were not “luring”🇺🇦away from 🇷🇺. 🇺🇦(& before other post-comm states) became eager 2 join western institutions as a result of evolving domestic prefers. 18/21

Poles, Czechs, Balts & others drew lessons from their history with 🇷🇺 & Soviet imperialism & sought safety under NATO umbrella. 🇺🇦had only minority (~25%) supporting NATO membership before 2014, but there was a sea change of opinion since as a direct result of 🇷🇺 aggression. 19/

Not 🇺🇦 nationalism or western meddling, but Putin’s imperialism made 🇺🇦 citizens rebuke 🇷🇺 & favor membership in western institutions. Polls r clear & trajectory striking (read work by @oonuch & @VolodymyrKulyk4 among others 2 learn about these changes). 20/

@oonuch @VolodymyrKulyk4 In July, 90% favored EU membership & 73% NATO membership, with majorities in all regions, including historically 🇷🇺-leaning south and east. putin, the strategic genius, accomplished sth no 🇺🇦 nationalist could dream of. 21/ pravda.com.ua/news/2022/07/1…

Again, 🇺🇦agency & domestic drivers of 🇺🇦 foreign policy preference r critical 2 acknowledge 2 form empirically-accurate picture of the war & how peace can b achieved. Great power politics aficionados need 2 engage w/actual facts of they offer not theory but ideology. 22/

Causes of invasion are rooted not in NATO expansion or western scheming against 🇷🇺, but in threats posed by a truly independent & politically pluralistic 🇺🇦to putin’s imperial vision of “true” 🇷🇺 & his authoritarian political model. 23/

Path 2 peace lies in 🇺🇦victory which will strengthen rules-based internat. order, punish aggressor, stop genocide, & offer 🇷🇺 hope of rebuilding their country as a state that cooperates & competes, not bullies & invades, internationally &is accountable 2 citizens domestically END