Sergej Sumlenny Profile picture
Sep 19 14 tweets 3 min read
THREAD Let us talk on what will come after this war. This is a very short and bullet-points-style thread.
1) Ukraine will win this war. There is no chance for another outcome. Those who deny it will loose. Set on the Ukraine's victory, you will win. Be the fcking winner! 1/x
2) After Ukraine wins this war, pro-Russian parties will not disappear. They will camouflage as the "EU-critical" parties. They will say, "the EU has betrayed us and did not help, we won this war alone". Don't let them raise their voice. Have Ukraine inside the EU asap. 2/x
3) The next EU and NATO disturbance point will be the moment when Ukraine will be about to liberate a) Donbas, b) Crimea (I believe - in this order). Don't try to stop Ukraine. Quite the opposite: help Ukraine. Ukraine will do it anyway. Be the fcking winner, I told you. 3/x
4) Russia will continue to be Russia. A lot of terror, distraction, disinformation, nuclear threats. Just ignore it. Even if Russia dares to go nuclear - it is not your "lack of the will for a compromise" which lead to it. It is purely the Russia's obsession with destruction..4/x
4.1) ...the goal is - to minimize the Russian nuke threat. It is not a fault if Russia still ignites one or two of nukes, as the goal is to minimize the threat. It is about like dealing with a terrorist who already has 1,000 hostages. It is about saving as much as possible. 5/x
5) What is really important: Russia will disappear, new countries will arise. It is extremely important to:
5a) Take all ex-Russians nukes away;
5b) Integrate new countries into the international order (NATO) asap. Don't repeat the 1990s mistakes! We could denuclearize Russia!6/x
6) In Germany, there is still no understanding that we must prepare for the world without Russia (and that this world will not be less secure, but much more secure). We must dare to think about this new world, and form it. Not to follow it without any knowledge like in 1990s. 7/x
6a) Do we have experts who speak Tatar? Bashkir? Yakut? Is there any understanding of what Russian colonialism was? We don't have enough people who understand the Russian colonialism towards Ukraine, I don't mention Tatarstan (which will be a UN Member within the next years). 8/x
7) Western honeymoon with the Russian liberals must end. To fancy Navalny is the same mistake like to fancy Gorbachev in 1989. He will be nobody soon, a nationalist leader and a Greater Russia dreamer without a country. What treaty would you sign with Gorbachev in 1992? None. 9/x
8) If you'd like to be a tough real politician, start to groom the current leaders of Russian ethnic regions (except Kadyrov, he'll die pretty soon). Groom the leaders of Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Sakha, Tuva, Adygea etc.They will defect Putin and will be the Presidents soon 10/x
9) Don't be afraid of the "destruction" after Russia collapses. a) It is Russia that brings destruction: look at the current war and the nuclear threat; b) after the USSR collapse, most wars were started by Russia, as it was too strong and felt to be the "mini-USSR"... 11/x
9a) ...if no country will inherit Russia, and no country will carry the trauma of the restauration of the empire (like Russia carried one of the USSR), nobody will try to restore greater Russia and start any war. 12/x
10) New power alliances of free nations will arise after this war. Poland will be way more important than since 17th century. Intermarium alliance (Baltic countries, Poland, Ukraine) will emerge. If Germany does not change fast, I will loose any influence left. 13/x
11) The consequence is very simple. Be vigilant, be strong, be brave, be honest. Don't try to deal with those who promise you shadow deals. We enter the age of honesty. Those who try to lie will fail. /END

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More from @sumlenny

Sep 21
Russian MoD Shoigu says, 300,000 Russians will be mobilized. I doubt it is possible (or possible with any good effect for the Russians). To use these people, Russia needs active officers and ready structures to absorb recruits. Even if a part of mobilized are reserve officers 1/x
...they need available structures with commanding officers (ca. 500-800 per division) to integrate them. The same for the soldiers: they need to be absorbed by "cadered" (incomplete) divisions. (Read more on this system at this thread by @kamilkazani): 2/x
I do not say anything yet about the equipment and logistics: as we know, Russia was not capable to provide its own troops with proper equipment, and it were just about 150,000 of soldiers. So the only reason to proclaim the mobilization is (as I can imagine now) pure PR. 3/x
Read 4 tweets
Sep 20
#BREAKING Russian mail propaganda outlet RIA Novosti says, “Referendums on joining Russia” will take place in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhya and Kherson regions starting on Sept 23rd and up to Sept 27th. This looks like a totally desperate attempt to create any “positive” picture ImageImage
Just remember: the Kremlin does not control a large part of Zaporizhzha region including the Zaporizhzhya city itself, is about to lose Kherson, and the Ukrainian offensive in Donbas is ongoing. The idea “Russia needs if you proclaim these areas Russia to defend them” is false…
…as Ukraine has already hit Russian Kursk and Belgorod regions, as well as annexed Crimea which the Russians proclaimed to be “Russia”, and the Kremlin just denied the attacks. It looks like Putin wants to have a nice TV picture - no idea what for.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 19
There was a short moment of German FM Annalena Baerbock as she played as if she supported Ukraine. Now she is again acting full in line with the Chancellor Scholz, opposing callsto send tanks to Ukraine. Don’t forget. The Greens are a loyal part of the coalition led by Scholz.
The German government with the Greens on board, including the Vice Chancellor, did anything to prevent Ukraine from obtaining enough tanks and IFVs. Now, 6+ months after the invasion has started, German FM Baerbock explains, Germany doesn’t send tanks as “they are too complex”.
Germany had all the time to prepare Ukrainian teams during the last 6 months. Those Ukrainians who have demonstrated they can master any Western heavy equipment within weeks. This process has not even been started - because the GER govt (SPD+FDP+Greens) doesn’t want it to happen.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 17
OTD 1939 Moscow, following its joint war plans with the Nazis, has joined German Wehrmacht and SS and attacked Poland from the East. Joint military operations climaxed in a joint military victory parade in Brest. My grandfather's brother was a Polish soldier, killed in this war. ImageImageImageImage
Russian historians on the joint military operation by Nazis and Soviets: "on Sept 23rd, German Wehrmacht informed (the Soviet) commander in Lviv Ivanov about concentration of the Polish forces westwards from Hrubieszow and expressed hope, the Poles...

dic.academic.ru/dic.nsf/ruwiki…
...will be eliminated by joint actions of the Wehrmacht and the Red Army. After he received green light from the Kremlin, commander of the East Group Golikov has eliminated this Polish group, using the forces of 2nd Chivalry Corps and 24th Tank Brigade with a deep cooperation...
Read 5 tweets
Sep 17
In his latest desperate attempt to explain the Russian defeat in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin suddenly started to use formula "в Украине" instead of colonial "на Украине" he used since about a decade. This does not mean much, but is fun.
it is like "the" in English, often used for colonized territories, not countries. Compare to "the Togo", "the Niger" etc. (Except if the country's name has a noun, like "the United STATES", "the FEDERATION of" etc.) Russian "na" is for islands or territories, "v" for countries.
in German it is different, as GER articles point out the grammatical gender. Most countries are neutral in GER, and used without an article. If a country is masculine or feminine, it is called with an article "der" (for ex. Iran, Irak, Lebanon) or "die" (Schweiz, Türkei, Ukraine)
Read 4 tweets
Sep 13
THREAD Russia sends hundreds of its school and kindergarten teachers to occupied Ukraine in order to fulfill genocide of Ukrainians. Exactly as the RU soldiers, these people come to UKR with their hate against Ukrainians. RU Novaya newspaper talked to them. Read their testimonies
Yuri Baranov, history teacher from Russia-colonized Perm region in Urals: „my wife and me hope we will get a piece of land in Zaporizhya. My wife always dreamt about a house with a garden… I personally despise Ukraine. Theis country groomed hate against Russian for 30 years“ 2/x
Tatyana Taratynova, director of a kindergarten in Rostov region. „We run workshops for Ukrainians on how to switch to Russian teaching plans… the crucial thing is to stop them from be stubborn in Ukrainian teaching plans and to switch the system into Russian standard“ 3/x
Read 13 tweets

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