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Sep 20 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Whoah, Hobart has 44 candidates including *ten* not known about as of yesterday. Three I have immediately heard of: Lili Christie (wife of Ron), Tiina Sexton (wife of Sexton who is retiring, ran in 2011), Stefan Vogel (2018 candidate) #lgtas #politas
44 candidates is too many. I am like a broken record on this but it is absolutely nuts that there is no deposit for running for local government and absolutely nuts that you do not need a significant number of nominators.

#lgtas
I'll be adding info on the new candidates through the day as I can find it, little as they deserve it after hiding their lights under bushels for so long.
OK so there's a thing called "Hobart Community Team" that is the Bai/Christie ticket and includes three couples (apparently Bai/Gao, Christie/Christie and Davies/Rothery). The latest episode of 'silly ticket concepts involving Ron Christie'.
Actually would have had the four extra Bai/Christie ticket candidates in the list a few days ago had I found the time to open the paper copy of Hobart Observer sitting on my desk one metre away and seen their ad - but then I would have got two of their surnames wrong.

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More from @kevinbonham

Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Sep 21
#ResolvePM Vic (state) ALP 42 L-NP 28 Green 12 IND 12 (likely to be inflated) Others 6. My 2PP estimate if that happened on election day 61-39 to Labor but that is conservative; it could be even higher given IND issue. #springst
"In the lead-up to the 2010 state election, public polls gave the then-Labor government a similarly commanding majority, but Labor ended up losing in a surprise twist."

Not really. The 60-40 poll linked to was 20 months out from the election not 2. 2 months out it was 52-48.
Results can be as all over the place as they like but if that poll occurred the Coalition would be looking at a loss of about 11 seats and the only question would be how many went to Labor and how many went to indies.
Read 8 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Sep 20
#ResolvePM (federal) ALP 39 Lib 32 Green 10 ON 6 UAP* 2 IND 8 (may be exaggerated) others 3

My 2PP estimate 57-43 to Labor. Previous poll which came out at over 61 was an outlier.

* polls may still include them in spite of deregistration as have said they intend to run again
Report on #ResolvePM republic polling here which has 54-46 against at this rather meaningless time for polling the issue. However the question published appears to be the follow-up for initially undecided voters; what was the primary question?

theage.com.au/politics/feder…
In the previous Resolve republic poll the primary question was "Are you personally in favour or against Australia becoming a republic independent of the UK?" (The problem with that question being that Australia already is independent of the UK.)
Read 4 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Sep 19
Redbridge poll of Mornington (Vic state Lib 5.0%) suggests via primed question that "An Independent Like Monique Ryan" would be competitive under ideal circumstances. (but see following tweets)

dropbox.com/s/xrxy3n0pzhni…

(HT @nobby15)
This style of leadup polls for the federal election (i) overestimated damage to Liberal primary (which if repeated here would see Libs safe) (ii) often correctly gauged or even underestimated vote for teal IND, but Flinders which overlaps Mornington was one of the IND flops.
(Flinders was probably a flop for INDs partly because there were two and one had an eligibility saga but I think there are also reasons to suspect the federal division just wasn't that into the teal thing cf others.)
Read 4 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Jul 31
#Newspoll Dutton net -4 (37-41) and is the first non-previously-serving Opp Leader to start his career as such in net negatives (Peacock 2 also started with a negative netsat.)
#Newspoll Albanese net +35 (61-26). (corrected) Still not really a meaningful record high as Rudd was higher on net satisfaction (+48) in his first Newspoll as PM. Current Newspoll methods have lower don't know on satisfaction.
#Newspoll Better PM (skews to incumbents, oh yes including ALP ones) Albanese leads 59-25. Similar to Howard's leads over Beazley in first two months, way below Rudd over Nelson, way above Abbott over Shorten.
Read 7 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Jul 29
It's one thing to say politics is an exercise in self-flagellation and another to see a Senator officially listed as Whip for himself.
This is the reason for it. 24A entails the committee includes "the whips of any minority groups" so singletons must appoint themselves Whip to be appointed.

(There's a debate about whether Pocock is a party Senator or an independent. The AEC recognises David Pocock as a parliamentary party (meaning the party stays registered without needing to prove 1500 members) but the Senate calls him an independent.)
Read 4 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Jul 21
The glorious day is here, the 2022 federal election results have been archived! I will be rolling out various goodies on my site in coming days.
Key preference flows (2019 in brackets)

Green 85.66 to ALP (record high) (82.21)
UAP 61.86 to L-NP (65.14)
PHON 64.30 to L-NP (65.22)
IND 63.77 to ALP (59.40)
The official 2PP is 52.13 to Labor. (Not sure what happened with the Willoughby NORTH SYDNEY PPVC apparent transposition issue but the numbers there have not changed.)
Read 9 tweets

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