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The last two weeks have answered a central question of the Russo-Ukraine War; can Ukraine undertake the offensives required to liberate their people & reoccupy their territory? They have answered this question emphatically with their Kharkiv offensive. 1/19
2/ During this offensive, I had the opportunity to visit #Ukraine and to speak with high level military and government officials. I took away three key observations from the visit.
3/ First, the Ukrainians are competent. This is a gross understatement. No military this century has had to fight across all the domains of war concurrently, and do so against a larger and better armed adversary. kyivindependent.com/national/with-…
4/ Their most important preparation for this war was not physical but intellectual. They re-trained their troops away from Soviet centralised command methods to adopt more decentralised C2. This has been a clear difference between the two belligerents.
5/ Beyond this, the Ukrainians have adopted what I have described elsewhere as a strategy of corrosion. They have attacked the Russians at their weak points constantly, destroyed their logistics, and slowly killed as many Russian battlefield leaders as possible.
6/ At the strategic level, their global influence campaign has set a new benchmark for effectiveness. This Ukrainian competence has resulted in a military institution that is now without peer in the art and science of 21st century warfare.
7/ Second, the Ukrainians are proud of their national effort - military, civil, diplomatic and informational - to defend their nation against the depredations of the murderous, yet bungling, Russian Army.
8/ It is not a pride that features flag waving and empty patriotic gestures. It is a quiet, humble pride that one finds in the alert posture of every soldier, and confident step of the officials and military officers with whom I met.
9/ Finally, the Ukrainians are confident. They know they can win this war. Zelensky stated that “we don’t believe there is compromise when it comes to Russia. There are only conditions, especially the departure of Russia from Ukraine.”
10/ Partially, this is a result of their achievements in the Battles of Kyiv, Kharkiv and elsewhere. The Ukrainians have seized the strategic initiative in this war, and are taking back huge swathes of their territory from the Russians.
11/But there is another more vital source of their confidence; the Ukrainians know exactly what they are fighting for. They fight for their people and their country. And they believe strongly that they are fighting for the larger idea that all democracies matter.
12/ Every single Ukrainian interlocutor I met with in Kyiv had but a single message; give us the right tools in the right quantity to get the job done. They know they can beat the Russians, but appreciate that this is predicated on continued western aid.
13/ The coming winter is an opportunity for the west to surge its support to Ukraine. President Zelensky noted in our talks, “we are not after countries compromising their own security, but we need more military assistance.”
14/ There was a consistent message in what is needed: air defence; tanks and armoured infantry fighting vehicles; long range fires; soldier equipment; UAVs; and, counter UAV systems.
15/ Some in the west talk of the limits of Ukraine to absorb additional military aid. But Ukrainians know themselves, and this war, better than any western official, and have mastered modern war to a degree not achieved in any western military. We should defer to their judgement.
16/ There is much more we can do to support them. I have proposed that my own country send more armoured vehicles and equipment, and that it better amplify Ukrainian messaging in the global information domain. smh.com.au/world/europe/i…
17/ The coming months are an opportunity for Australia and others to demonstrate true commitment to Ukraine and their victory over Russia. This is an even more compelling need if Russia does begin to mobilise. reuters.com/world/europe/r…
18/ The sacrifices of #Ukraine in the past 8 months have been to ensure that ‘government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish’ from their small patch of this earth. It’s why they fight. And why the west must support them more. End
A quick, strategic assessment of Putin's use of the Oreshnik missile in a strike against #Ukraine. In short, this was a political strike not a military one. 1/10 🧵
2/ Putin used this missile as a direct response to recent U.S. administration decisions to allow Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied ATACMs missiles against a wider range of targets inside Russia, particularly targets related to the Ukrainian campaign in Kursk. He notes this in his speech.
3/ An additional driver was the permission given by U.K. and French governments for the use of their long-range air launched missiles against targets in Russia.
Today, the war in #Ukraine – or at least the time since the large-scale Russian invasion of 2022 – reaches the 1000-day mark. Besides reflecting on the tremendous sacrifices of the Ukrainian people since February 2022, the 1000-day point permits taking stock of the situation. 1/8 🧵 🇺🇦
2/ Even though the situation for #Ukraine at the 1000-day mark is forbidding, the trajectory of this war is not cast in steel. To prevent continued Russian gains on the battlefield, and to stop any attempt at forcing Ukraine to the negotiate under unfavourable terms, what changes might be required?
3/ 1st, Ukraine must conduct a ruthless re-assessment of its military strategy. In 2024, Russia seized the strategic initiative, Ukraine lost more territory & an offensive into Russia has not met key objectives. New ideas will be required for an evolved military strategy.
In the past few days, speculation about a potential ‘Ukraine solution’ from the incoming Trump administration has accelerated. Here, I examine possible components of this, or other, 'peace plans' for #Ukraine. 1/10 🧵🇺🇦
2/ A report in The Telegraph describes an evolved plan that includes a buffer zone, freezing the conflict, Russia retaining currently held territory, ‘pumping Ukraine full of US weapons’ to deter Russia and deferring Ukraine’s NATO membership for years.
3/ It is timely to examine some of the components of these plans, and the issues they might contain. We can only explore potential components because there is not yet an endorsed Trump plan for Ukraine. And, unfortunately, nor is there a U.S. strategy for #Ukraine produced by the Biden administration in the past 3 years.
It has become increasingly likely that North Korean combat troops will appear in #Ukraine soon. While there remain many unknowns on this subject, the deployment of North Korean troops raises many different potential issues for Russia, Ukraine and NATO. 1/10 🧵🇺🇦
2/ On 13 October, President Zelenskyy announced the anticipated deployment of North Korea troops’ to Ukraine. In the past 48 hours, the head of NATO, Mark Rutte, described how “North Korea sending troops to fight alongside Russia in Ukraine would mark a significant escalation.”
3/ The most obvious challenge for Russia in the deployment of North Korean troops for combat operations will be at the tactical level. There will be a communication gap between soldiers and commanders who speak two different languages. It is very unlikely that most North Korean troops speak Russian - and vice versa. While translators will be helpful, this kind of communication gap can, and will, be a problem during combat operations.
President Zelenskyy has presented his Victory Plan to the Ukrainian parliament. It has 5 elements: Ukraine to join NATO; defense, including long-range strikes; deterring Russian aggression; economic development; and, and post-war security structures. 1/5 🧵 🇺🇦 kyivindependent.com/zelensky-victo…
2/ Apparently there are also three classified elements of the Victory Plan. These will be briefed separately to lawmakers. They were probably briefed to foreign leaders during Zelenskyy’s recent trip to the UK, France, Italy and Germany.
3/ Zelenskyy has also been invited to present his Victory Plan at an EU summit this week. kyivpost.com/post/40589
China has commenced #JointSword2024B. In the past day, 153 PLA aircraft & 14 PLAN ships operated around Taiwan. 111 aircraft entered Taiwan’s ADIZ. This is a record high in PLA activity. What might the People’s Liberation Army be seeking to achieve, and what might Western intelligence agencies might learn? 1/8 🧵
2/ Just last week, Taiwan celebrated its national day. Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te gave an address on 10 October that included a statement that China "has no right to represent Taiwan" and that his mission as president would be to "resist annexation or encroachment upon our sovereignty."
3/ After the speech by the President of Taiwan, the predictable Chinese Communist Party response arrived. Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Mao Ning stated that Lai had tried to “sell the fallacy of Taiwan independence,” and accused him of a “pernicious intention to escalate tensions across the Taiwan Strait for political gain.”