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Illia Ponomarenko🇺🇦

@IAPonomarenko

Sep 2

My hypothesis on what’s Ukraine doing in Kherson region.
The Ukrainian military likely put a stake on gradually exhausting and embattling Russia’s grouping on the Dnipro right bank — while also keeping it isolated from supplies and from across the river…

So Ukrainian forces are likely probing Russian defenses all along the line, looking for weak spots, trying to advance and capitalize on their gains if possible.
It certainly does not have enough manpower and hardware for a reckless, costly, Russian-style frontal attack…

… that would guarantee nothing but a high Ukrainian death toll. So the command has to use their brains and do it in a more subtle way.
I think this operation is not about territorial gains per se, but about grinding the Russian group of 20-25 BTGs down in hard combat…

Read 5 tweets

Illia Ponomarenko🇺🇦

@IAPonomarenko

Aug 10

Thread 🧵
Guys, it’s just the time for you to finally embrace the true Ukrainian wartime meme “BAVOVNA”.
The bavovna is exactly what happened to that Russian airfield in Crimea, in particular.

Once upon a time, when the Ukrainian military delivered a strike on Russian territory, local Russian officials on TV downplayed the blast effect and referred to it as “khlopok” (“a clap”) of absolutely mysterious origin.

But in Russian, the word “khlopok” can also mean “cotton” if it’s pronounced in a different way. “Khlopok” (meaning “cotton) is translated as “bavovna" in Ukrainian.

Read 6 tweets

Illia Ponomarenko🇺🇦

@IAPonomarenko

Aug 6

@amnesty

#Amnestyinternational @amnesty
War is hard. It’s horrific. It’s far from all those clean, climate-controlled offices and chart boards.
Everybody thinks the same thing: how to survive and possibly get a mission done. If you have been there, you know it.

Whether we like it or not, it is often far from those ideal rules written on paper. It’s a good idea to demand that combating sides respect the law of war and keep civilians safe. Unfortunately, very often, it’s easier said than done.

Not a single nation was ideal in terms of civilian safety in war. And Ukraine is not perfect. Because, again, fighting a war against one of the world’s largest militaries is much more complicated than lecturing someone from thousands of kilometers away from the battlefield.

Read 11 tweets

Illia Ponomarenko🇺🇦

@IAPonomarenko

Jul 31

THREAD 🧵
On Olenivka prison massacre.
Russian propaganda, being what it is, offers a conspiracy theory saying that over 50 Ukrainian POWs, the Azovstal soldiers, were killed by a Ukrainian HIMARS strike — because Azov members started “giving testimonies.”

So Russian blogosphere is now savoring this narrative saying that evil Zelensky slaughtered his own POW “Ukro-Nazis” because he wanted to prevent them from revealing the “truth” (what kind of truth?) about his NATO Nazi Reich and how Ukraine is to blame for this war.

Because this apparently makes complete sense, you know.
Also, it was a great day for them because scores of Ukro-swines were killed, anyway.
But there’s a problem here.
I am old enough to remember how Azovstal soldiers ended up in Russian captivity in May.

Read 11 tweets

Illia Ponomarenko🇺🇦

@IAPonomarenko

Jul 14

Downtown Vinnytsya now.
2 dead (including a kid), 6 wounded in a Russian missile strike

The strike’s approx location: 49.23951606215629, 28.492534360995165
There’s an old Soviet Officers’ Club building just across the road.

To those who don’t know — The Officers’ House (or the Officers’ Club) is a sort of cultural center the Soviet military used to establish in pretty much every major city. For concerts, official ceremonies, exhibitions, drama etc.

Read 5 tweets

Illia Ponomarenko🇺🇦

@IAPonomarenko

Jul 10

THREAD: How many tanks does Russia have now? How many more it can throw in against Ukraine?
Let’s think over what we know.
Military Balance 2021 says before the 2022 invasion Russia had a total of 3,330 operational tanks: Т-72s, T-80s, T-90s, up to the latest versions T-72B3Ms…

…T-80BVMs, or T-90Ms.
Ukraine says Russia has lost 1,641 (and counting) tanks, the U.S. says “over 1,000”. @Oryx has already confirmed 857. So this means Russia has lost between 25% (a very conservative estimate) and 50% (an optimistic estimate) in its springtime cringe-krieg…

…and the battle of Donbas. The lower-bound estimate of the lost tanks is still the size of the tank corps of 🇬🇧, 🇩🇪, 🇮🇹, and🇫🇷 combined.
Yep, that’s the world’s second military power definitely winning its 72-hour special military operation against…

Read 11 tweets

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