#ResolvePM Vic (state) ALP 42 L-NP 28 Green 12 IND 12 (likely to be inflated) Others 6. My 2PP estimate if that happened on election day 61-39 to Labor but that is conservative; it could be even higher given IND issue. #springst
https://twitter.com/rwillingham/status/1572696439251091458
"In the lead-up to the 2010 state election, public polls gave the then-Labor government a similarly commanding majority, but Labor ended up losing in a surprise twist."
Not really. The 60-40 poll linked to was 20 months out from the election not 2. 2 months out it was 52-48.
Not really. The 60-40 poll linked to was 20 months out from the election not 2. 2 months out it was 52-48.
Results can be as all over the place as they like but if that poll occurred the Coalition would be looking at a loss of about 11 seats and the only question would be how many went to Labor and how many went to indies.
This one seems hard to credit (very low L-NP primary) but I've said it before and they keep on coming. Labor has not been under 55 2PP est in any public poll by anyone since June last year.
OK, average age of the data in this one is 3 months between election day so for 2010 Newspoll comparisons that would put it between the 55-45 (4 months average age) and the 52-48 (2 months).
https://twitter.com/rippinghottakes/status/1572709350946537475
That said the 55-45 July-August 2010 Newspoll was an outlier.
If the Coalition can manage a similar recovery from this one there is still time for them to lose 44-56!
If the Coalition can manage a similar recovery from this one there is still time for them to lose 44-56!
"Reed said there was a “federal overhang” at play, with damage to the Liberal brand as a result of integrity issues further reducing Guy’s chances [..]"
They would be about the first opposition ever to be dragged by a federal government that no longer exists.
They would be about the first opposition ever to be dragged by a federal government that no longer exists.
I go through the usual motions here:
1. Resolve's good performance in final federal poll was with a CATI-boosted sample, not the same as this one.
2. Resolve's polls are volatile and this appears over the top.
3. Large leads usually narrow (though at state level not so much)
1. Resolve's good performance in final federal poll was with a CATI-boosted sample, not the same as this one.
2. Resolve's polls are volatile and this appears over the top.
3. Large leads usually narrow (though at state level not so much)
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