Thread by @tparsi

🧵Difficult not to be struck by how the current #IranProtests2022 differ from those in 2009. The latter was about a stolen election and a fight within the current system re reform. They tended to be non-violent.

The anger and frustration today are FAR greater. >>

https://twitter.com/ErshadAlijani/status/1572320104200966144

2. For two decades, attempts at reforming the system have been stymied. The regime has responded with violence, stealing elections - and marginalizing and imprisoning those seeking peaceful reforms.
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3. The conclusion many young Iranian women and men appear to have reached is that attempts at reform from within should be abandoned. Two decades of failure is enough. They boycotted the last election. Their anger is immeasurable - and legitimate. >>

4. So while it took weeks before the slogans turned against the regime as a whole in 2009, the current protests called for the overthrow of the regime almost from the outset.

This is the regime's own doing. >>

5. By blocking reforms, making the political spectrum in Iran increasingly narrow, further limiting freedoms, all the while continuing the corruption, repression & mismanagement, the regime is literally pushing people to choose revolt over reform.
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6. But I fear we havn't seen anywhere near the repressive capacity of the regime yet. There are indications that the state held back a bit due to Raisi's presence in NY. He'll be back in Tehran today and the expectation is that things may get very bloody as we approach Friday.>>

7. Iranians learned 40 years ago that overthrowing a tyrannical regime through revolution is one thing, and establishing democracy is another matter altogether. The current protests may once again succeed with the former only to fail at the latter.
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8. Still, when millions of young women and men see no other way out, that is the path they will choose, come what may.
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9. But things could have turned out very differently. Iran's civil society is strong enough and democratic values run deep enough that had the regime tolerated reforms, Iran could have become increasingly democratic without bloodshed.>>

10. And as I wrote last year, had Trump not left the #IranDeal and reimposed sanctions, the reformist argument that compromising with the US would bring Iran prosperity and peace would not have been utterly discredited. >>

inkstickmedia.com/how-us-sanctio…

11. But here we are. The next two days may prove decisive. The ball is in the Supreme Leader's court. He can choose to shut down the "morality" police who beat and harass women. He can listen to the young women and men of Iran and allow meaningful change and avoid violence. >>

12. Or he can choose force and repression, and by that, make the population even more angry, frustrated - and desperate.

It should be noted that his choices over the past decades do not provide much hope...//