With TD-09L initiated by NHC, we can now focus on impacts to Florida next week.
ECMWF ensembles (06z @weathermodels_) show some variability in the speed/forward motion, but the mean is into SW Florida. Intensity near major hurricane strength. #TropicalUpdate
@weathermodels_ The 5-day NHC forecast position of 09L w/intensity of 95-knots puts an almost major hurricane (1-knot less) right off the Florida coastline just west of Naples at 2 AM Wednesday.
Landfall pegged for Wednesday of strong Category 2 or major hurricane (Category 3) in SW Florida ...
@weathermodels_ However, there is uncertainty in the landfall location, intensity and timing.
We have only just begun the process of forecasting the position and strength of 09L -- likely Hurricane Hermine.
Please keep tabs on the weather models and NHC. Humans and machines working together.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
GFS 12z update has a slow-moving major hurricane in the central Gulf of Mexico mid-next week.
Still uncertain if/when landfall will occur, but interests along Gulf Coast from SE Lousiana to Key West should keep close 👀
GFS has been on the western edge of the track spaghetti, but there are EPS 06z ensembles that take the system into the Yucatan, more than at 00z. #TropicalUpdate
Next assessment around 4 PM ET when EPS 12z finishes up. 🌀
What do the humans think?
NWS WPC position of likely hurricane next Thursday morning.
On a big planet like Earth, extreme weather or climate events are always happening somewhere people live. Resiliency to the climate throughout history has determined the rise and fall of civilizations and empires.
For centuries, bountiful harvests vs. pestilence & famine was seen as result of divine providence.
Today, we look back upon such accounts in the 17th Century as witchcraft or astrology.
Yet, farmers obviously had working knowledge of climate to survive.
Today's comments on weather and climate from scientists are strikingly similar to priests of 500 years ago:
• Humans are responsible for worsening bad weather.
• We scientists predicted this, and you didn't listen.
• Decarbonize to prevent future extreme weather disasters.
Things were going pretty well with Earth's climate in the 13th century. Then, the Samalas volcano on Indonesia island of Lombok exploded in 1257, with incredible violence injecting enormous amounts of sulfur into the stratosphere. 🌋
It wasn't until 2013 that scientists figured out the origin of the massive 1257 eruption. Geo/volcano/paleo/climate/cryo/glacier detectives unraveled the mystery eruption source from Indonesia.
"Estimates of its stratospheric sulfate load are around 8- and 2-times greater than those of Krakatau in A.D. 1883 and Tambora in A.D. 1815, respectively, ranking it among the most significant volcanic events of the Holocene."