Ryan Maue Profile picture
Sep 23 3 tweets 2 min read
With TD-09L initiated by NHC, we can now focus on impacts to Florida next week.

ECMWF ensembles (06z @weathermodels_) show some variability in the speed/forward motion, but the mean is into SW Florida. Intensity near major hurricane strength. #TropicalUpdate
@weathermodels_ The 5-day NHC forecast position of 09L w/intensity of 95-knots puts an almost major hurricane (1-knot less) right off the Florida coastline just west of Naples at 2 AM Wednesday.

Landfall pegged for Wednesday of strong Category 2 or major hurricane (Category 3) in SW Florida ...
@weathermodels_ However, there is uncertainty in the landfall location, intensity and timing.

We have only just begun the process of forecasting the position and strength of 09L -- likely Hurricane Hermine.

Please keep tabs on the weather models and NHC. Humans and machines working together.

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More from @RyanMaue

Sep 22
GFS 12z update has a slow-moving major hurricane in the central Gulf of Mexico mid-next week.

Still uncertain if/when landfall will occur, but interests along Gulf Coast from SE Lousiana to Key West should keep close 👀 ImageImageImage
GFS has been on the western edge of the track spaghetti, but there are EPS 06z ensembles that take the system into the Yucatan, more than at 00z. #TropicalUpdate

Next assessment around 4 PM ET when EPS 12z finishes up. 🌀 ImageImageImage
What do the humans think?

NWS WPC position of likely hurricane next Thursday morning. Image
Read 4 tweets
Sep 22
Anomaly fields are invaluable for determining various events like extratropical transition.

The 500-hPa temperature anomaly (vs. climatology) shows the trough and Fiona, but it's not a merger. More like a capture.
The warm-core sticks around until the bitter end.
850 hPa temperature anomaly. #HurricaneFiona

The tropical warm-core will survive, remain coherent, up until it doesn't, then it blinks/poofs as midlatitude air wipes it out.
Sequence of 4 maps of 500 hPa height anomaly.

Hurricane Fiona retrogrades into the well of the trough but deepens considerably and matches the scale.

Extreme extratropical transition (EET)
Read 4 tweets
Sep 22
ECMWF model provides "simulated satellite" of water vapor forecasts.

Easy way to visualize the "extratropical transition" process as Hurricane Fiona encounters the middle-latitude jet stream.

The resulting post-tropical storm becomes even stronger and more damaging.
Larger view including North America to show weather patterns over the next 3-4 days.

ECMWF 12z simulated water-vapor satellite (@weathermodels_)
@weathermodels_ And the full 10-days*

Weather systems going in all different directions.

*Caribbean/Gulf hurricane development is only one of many possible scenarios. Position/forecast after 5-days is highly uncertain.

Should give you appreciation for why hurricane forecasts are hard.
Read 5 tweets
Sep 19
On a big planet like Earth, extreme weather or climate events are always happening somewhere people live. Resiliency to the climate throughout history has determined the rise and fall of civilizations and empires.
For centuries, bountiful harvests vs. pestilence & famine was seen as result of divine providence.

Today, we look back upon such accounts in the 17th Century as witchcraft or astrology.

Yet, farmers obviously had working knowledge of climate to survive.
Today's comments on weather and climate from scientists are strikingly similar to priests of 500 years ago:

• Humans are responsible for worsening bad weather.

• We scientists predicted this, and you didn't listen.

• Decarbonize to prevent future extreme weather disasters.
Read 12 tweets
Sep 17
Two cars just "caught fire" in front of Whole Foods here in Atlanta. Anyone want to guess what kind?
Video footage.
More.
Read 6 tweets
Aug 20
Things were going pretty well with Earth's climate in the 13th century. Then, the Samalas volcano on Indonesia island of Lombok exploded in 1257, with incredible violence injecting enormous amounts of sulfur into the stratosphere. 🌋
It wasn't until 2013 that scientists figured out the origin of the massive 1257 eruption. Geo/volcano/paleo/climate/cryo/glacier detectives unraveled the mystery eruption source from Indonesia.

pnas.org/doi/full/10.10…
How big was the 1257 eruption? Huge. VEI 7+ 🌋

"Estimates of its stratospheric sulfate load are around 8- and 2-times greater than those of Krakatau in A.D. 1883 and Tambora in A.D. 1815, respectively, ranking it among the most significant volcanic events of the Holocene."
Read 8 tweets

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