1/ Warren Buffett's buy-and-hold-strategy $BRKB is not for everyone. Buying great businesses & holding works over long investment horizons, but Buffett sometimes went years w/o positive returns (70s). He also didn't beat market for many years after GFC. Patience + high quality.
2/ The strategy only works when you buy top decile businesses (brand, IP, oligopolies, cash flow machines), not the "exciting" high multiple or high vol trash most on #fintwit buy. The problem is people trying to pretend to be Buffett and buy trash cos with no free cash flow.
3/ Chamath had the audacity to compare himself to Buffett, and tried to buy an insurance company like Buffett's GEICO $BRKB , but $MILE (Metromile) was a dumpster fire sold at a steep 90% discount to its original deal valuation to $LMND.
4/ Also, no investor or investment strategy is perfect. Buffett dumped airline stocks at the lows in 2020 ($4 billion worth) right before they turned around and rallied. He had recently purchased 10% of the world's four largest airlines $AAL $UAL $DAL $LUV...
5/ Buffett also admitted to overpaying for Precision Castparts $PCC, which contributed to a $9.8 billion write down in 2020.

"I was wrong, however, in judging avg amount of future earnings and, consequently, wrong in my calculation of the proper price to pay for the business."
6/ Buffett went from buying "cigar butts" (low multiple, no/low terminal value" early in his career to high cash flow growing businesses later on with the help of Charlie Munger. GEICO (bought for $23.5mn in 1976), would be worth ~$30 billion today at insurance peer multiples.
7/ Other examples of successful investments include Moody's $MCO, a duopoly, Apple $AAPL, American Express $AXP, and Coca Cola $KO.

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More from @SpecialSitsNews

Sep 22
Fertilizer plan shutdowns in Europe 🇪🇺... $ung $cf $ipi $cvr $ntr $most $ande Image
Due to skyrocketing natural gas prices, Europe this summer has lost about half of its ammonia production and 33% of its nitrogen fertilizer production, according to London-based research firm CRU Group.
Nutrien, Mosaic and CF industries are the world's largest sellers of nitrogen, phosphates and potash fertilizars
Read 4 tweets
Sep 21
1/ Key FOMC Takeaway Thread (including Powell speech):
-Fed raises its main rate 75 basis points, as anticipated, to a range of 3% to 3.25%, while new projections from officials show a median estimate of 4.4% at the end of 2022 and 4.6% at the end of 2023
2/ While Wednesday’s decision was unanimous, the dot plot shows 10-9 majority in favor of hiking above 4.25% this year, suggesting a fourth straight 75 basis-point increase in November is possible
3/ Policy makers expect rates will be cut in 2024, to about 3.9%, and to 2.9% in 2025

Statement identical to prior FOMC meeting in July; Fed says recent indicators “point to modest growth” in spending and production, compared with July’s language that the data had “softened”
Read 49 tweets
Sep 17
Lane is grasping at straws

ECB'S LANE: THERE ARE SIGNS THAT GOODS INFLATION WILL DECLINE, BUT NOT YET.
ECB’S LANE: THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INTEREST RATE INCREASES THIS YEAR AND EARLY NEXT YEAR.
ECB’S LANE: WE CAN'T RULE OUT A MILD RECESSION.
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Sep 16
$FDX sell-side thoughts, reflection on economy:

“Global volumes declined as macroeconomic trends significantly worsened later in the quarter (August), both internationally and in the U.S." Energy crisis in EU and China slowdown contributed. $UPS
2/ Lack of $FDX “freight wave” from China’s reopening seems to have impacted FedEx first due to its status as the leading airfreight carrier in the Asia-Pac region

3/ Results are the start of a post-pandemic unwind
$UPS
4/ Key ocean and air freight pricing benchmarks have mean reverted back to levels seen in 2020, showing that an “industry wide unwind is underway”
Cost inflation remains a risk as revenue mean reverts to pre-pandemic levels for $FDX $UPS
Read 6 tweets
Sep 14
1/ While two more rail unions reached tentative agreements with railroad management on new contracts Tuesday, the two most important unions — representing the engineers and conductors who make up the two-person crews on each train — remain at loggerheads in negotiations.
2/ If they don’t resolve their differences, the first national rail strike in 30 years could start early Friday. Those engineers and conductors unions represent roughly half of the more than 100,000 unionized workers at the nation’s major freight railroads.
3/ Without them on the job those trains will not run, nor will many commuter and Amtrak trains that run over freight rail lines. Indeed, Amtrak has already suspended some of its routes.
Read 20 tweets
Sep 12
1/ $TWTR said Elon Musk’s latest move to cancel his agreement to buy the social network is invalid after the billionaire said the company’s treatment of a whistle-blower gave him another reason to walk away. 

“Twitter has breached none of its representations or obligations.”
2/ Zatko is due to testify this week about his whistle-blower report, in which he raised concerns about lax security, privacy issues and the number of bots on the platform. He has been subpoenaed to testify in the Twitter lawsuit, as well. $TWTR
3/ Delaware Judge McCormick has allowed Musk to add Zatko’s allegations of “egregious deficiencies” at Twitter to his legal arguments, permitting the billionaire to argue a material adverse effect on the acquisition through Twitter’s failure to disclose Zatko’s statements. 
$TWTR
Read 4 tweets

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