75 shelling locations were reported by GSUA today.
FIRMS Data: 2022-09-25_18:20
Added 31 locations to kml
Filtered 30 locations by proximity to other fires
Removed 57 false positives
Kup'yans'k
Based on shelling locations, I believe the AFU has established 2 bridgeheads in the Kup'yans'k area.
Lyman.
I belive the AFU has established atleast 5 crossings over the Oskil and SD river. The reason the russians are prepared to defend Lyman until the last man, is it's a key blocking positions for the axis of advance east of the Zherebets river.
Once Lyman falls, the axis west of Zherebets will have their flank protected by the eastern axis and they can start advancing towards Svatove.
RuAF have moved some reinforcements to the Siversk-Soledar area, but i do not think they will pose a threat to the AFU offensive.
Bakhmut
The AFU repulsed RuAF attacks in the area of Vymika, Soledar, Zaitseve and Kurdyumivka. It seems like RuAF have spread their forces more evenly along the line rather than focusing on the south side of Bakhmut.
I do not see any risk of Bakhmut being captured by RuAF in the foreseeable future.
Donetsk
RuAF tried to advance in the area of Pervomais'ke, Novomykhailivka and Pavlivka. They were plagued by smoking accidents and had to turn around.
Kherson
Not a lot of news is coming out of here. Kherson police reported the Russians are shelling the town Arkhanhel's'ke (not close to/in the area of). I think this indicates the AFU are in the town, but RuAF might also be in the other part of the town.
Russian hero. I'm sorry I forgot where I found it, so I can not give credit.
I was asked to draw why Lyman is important to the Russians. I hope this explains it.
With Ru in Lyman, the southern axis of advance towards Svatove will vulnerable.
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According to RU channels UA withdrew from the Filtration Plant in the east and Zenith in the south. This is good news, since avoiding an encirclement should be a priority at this point. It seems the coke plant and Kvartal high-rises are the current UA strongholds.
RU forces continue to try to fully encircle Avdiivka pushing mainly from 3 directions.
It remains to be seen if Ukraine are planning to withdraw from the east side of the city, but I think it's a pretty good idea to do so.
UA might chose to fight for the coke plant and Kvartal for a bit, but the gap for the gloc is only 3km and consists of 2 windbreaks.
I frequently get questions like:
"Are you ok?"
"What happened?"
"Why did you stop posting?"
So here we go⬇️
Yes I'm ok.
(This post is sponsored by Ramzan Fragglerov)
Time.
I have less time to follow Ukraine. I usually spent about 3-4 hours a day to just make my daily threads and going through all the information channels. To be able to keep the information reliable, I have to put in 6-10h per day. I dont have that kind of time anymore.
I lost my best friend in March, so I had go get a new one. He is getting a lot of my attention now.
🧵During the last week, Ukrainian forces have advanced 32km2 in the Robotyne direction. They are expanding their penetration of the Surovikin and have reached the outskirts of Verbove and Verbove.
The AFU are slowly establishing positions on the opposite side of the "river" in Kam'yans'ke, Zaporizhzhia. It's worth mentioning the "river" is probably pretty dry at this point.
This is what it looked like on July 17th when they were first geolocated on that side of the "river".
This morning multiple RU channels reported a UA offensive around Novodonets'ke, Novomaiors'ke and yesterday there were reports about activity around Shevchenko.