As of Sunday evening, it's looking more likely that the Carolinas won't have to worry about #Ian slipping back into the Atlantic for more East Coast mischief.
That doesn't mean portions of the Carolinas will escape unscathed, however. Why? Let's take a look ... 🧵1/x
That doesn't mean portions of the Carolinas will escape unscathed, however. Why? Let's take a look ... 🧵1/x
This evening, the models are still uncertain about just where in Florida or just when #Ian will land. The further up the west coast it goes, the later the arrival. But once there, it looks like the storm will remain inland. 2/x
There are some outliers among the models that still steer a weakened Ian back into the Atlantic. Given the projected steering as the storm reaches Florida, I don't see it. If #Ian reaches NC, it's likely taking an inland route. 3/x
As long-time #Weatherhounds know, however, that doesn't mean we won't potentially get smacked in the Sandhills. In fact, some modeling dumps as much or more more rain in North Carolina than along #Ian's path in Georgia. 4/x
Hmmm: Let's try that again ... the CMC, GFS and NWS models for rain from Ian. 5/x 
The reason isn't the storm itself but the moisture it's dragging along. As Ian slides north it's pinwheeling a river of moisture up from the tropics into the Carolinas. You can see the tail of tropical moisture streaming into the Sandhills here as PWATs top 2.2 inches. 6/x
To the north, a decent ridge is projected to move overhead. This would "cap" the moisture, super-saturating the air. When air can't hold any more water .... rain, possibly heavy. Watch the moisture "tail" draw more showers into the Carolinas on the CMC model. 7/x
We were going to see showers anyway, but this setup could produce some problematic soakers. I'll let the NWS address that when the time comes. For now, just be aware of the potential -- even with Ian down in Florida. 8/x
The timing of all this is uncertain, but the best guess is scattered showers after lunch Friday. Heavier rain in the Sandhills would likely begin Friday night into Saturday, tapering off in the late afternoon. If Ian dallies, Sunday morning rain is possible. 9/x
Winds could be surprisingly gusty as well. The Sandhills could see gusts up to 50 mph in the southern region Friday afternoon/evening. I have a feeling we're going to see some prep football reshuffling. 10/x
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