Thread by @vlarcinese

#italyelections #ITAelections22 🇮🇹
A short thread
1/ Meloni reaps the benefit of being the only opposition to Draghi’s technocratic government. All the parties which supported Draghi (including Berlusconi and Northern League, now in coalition with Meloni) have lost votes.

2/ The party most vocally advocating a return to technocracy (Renzi-Calenda) has obtained a decent but modest result (much less than Monti in 2013, for ex). Draghi’s technocratic gvt was obviously less popular than what most mainstream media believed (or wanted you to believe)

3/ The winning coalition is basically the same which has already governed three times with Berlusconi. The overall result of the coalition is modest if compared with Berlusconi’s heydays. But 2/3 of coalition votes go to the far right this time. This is victory of the far right.

4/ The 5 Star Movement (also in the Draghi's coalition), 32% in 2018, comes out substantially diminished. But is still alive and the third party in Italy. Nobody would have bet a cent on this result (about 15%) a few months ago. This is also a personal success of former PM Conte

5/ A coalition of centre-left parties could have won this election or at least substantially reduced the success of the right . PD refused to coalesce with 5SM (with which it had governed for most of the legislature). A political failure of epic proportions for PD leadership.

6/ Nevertheless, PD are masters at losing elections and winning governments. No doubt they bet on instability within the right-wing coalition to create the opportunity for a new technocratic government (after all, the parties which supported Draghi would still have a majority).

7/ For this reason, although the next prime minister will be far right and from fascist roots, she will likely be more moderate than she would wish. Coalitions are just electoral cartels, no commitment. A (credible) threat to break away makes Berlusconi the kingmaker /end