The #ERM Crisis still haunts the BOE, which back then was controlled by the HM Treasury and Chancellor of the exchequer.
George Soros's Quantum Fund has now been replaced by countless Quantamenal FX Algo and HFT Funds and Specialized Investment Vehicles, backed up by Ai/ML.
Once the currency and money market decline precipitates, conjointly, then open market mechanisms turn financial markets into a Darwinian jungle dominated by herd instincts and other complex emerging risks which pave the way forward for a Systemic Risk Meltdown. #PoundSterling
No wonder the UK Sovereign Bond Market is so jittery!!
They know higher inflation expectations will make rates go up even more.
Tax cuts are not helpful in that sense.
Also, C/A Deficit number is not helpful with a tax cut incentive, which will nullify the trade competitiveness
Going back to the arguments made by Roy Jenkins in 1968 after the Wilsonian and Callaghan perpetuated the Devaluation of Sterling.
The currency price can help restore external competitiveness only and only if aggregate demand and domestic consumption including wages are slowed
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What you will not learn at the best business school or university is how to manage people!
Personnel management or people management skills can only be learned at the practical work desk.
That is what will make all the difference btw failure and success.
Good luck with your MBA!
I have seen brilliant Students with a GPA of 3.9/4 failing in the real world.
Degrees, Exams, Diplomas, and Certificates don't make much out of anyone.
They are bureaucratic measures used by policymakers and scholars to delay the supply of labour and as a tool of social closure.
I seriously feel sorry for some of my PhD students.
They are discriminated against by those who have Ivy League & UOL Lead school MBAs.
And when they would like to join academia, they are pushed deeper into the abyss by being forced to do #Postdocs to continue the agony.
The potential #criminal or perpetrator of protruding any suspicious action or decision based on heinous or harmful activity can be deterred by forcing them to weigh the consequences of mens rea & actus reus against the weight of punishments based on odds. #bankers#roguetraders
Bad bankers are akin to criminals in any other walk of life.
We must broaden the domains of criminology and sociology, including psychology, to understand rogue and kleptomaniac behaviour among money managers in both the public and private sectors. #Fincrime is ubiquitous
The most potent cocktail of crime is when Financial crimes aka #Fincrimes and Social Engineering taxonomy comes together, such as #Cybercrimes, to threaten legacy Management Information, Technology, Computer Engineering, Networking, and Private Data Systems Securities. #Hazards
What kind of books, and academic manuscripts and other published texts should we add to a risk manager's library ecosystem?
Information is not just what Is stored inside IoT Devices, software programs, etc.
There should be a reading room in which one can enter & meditate?
Call me old-fashioned, but I still need to take printouts of didactic reference materials and other educational documents to read before I begin to understand.
Just browsing on the web and downloading is not good enough for me.
Touching and turning the texts fortifies my memory.
For e.g. nowadays, @FT, @business@TheEconomist and many other economic publications and news media groups have moved into the digital subscription space, thereby relying less on printed circulation.
I still enjoy picking up the physical newspaper or the magazine to read.
No wonder the bad memories survived.
During the 1970s Manley introduced Democratic Socialism in Jamaica which was a reactionary political movement against the injustices committed by the colonialists against the Jamaican People.
Economic historians confuse that with capitalism.
Free Enterprise & Free Market Economy, with Free movement of factors of production across markets, the freedom of choice exercised in terms of either consumption or occupation, and other matters pertinent to production, prices, and distribution are value-fact dichotomy hypotheses
The LTCM Crisis taught #Quants one thing in common.
Never trust the risk pricing/hedging models blindly.
The Black Scholes option model assumptions and the Value at Risk Metric both failed miserably.
The liquidity assumptions of the #VaR Model provided a false sense of security.
The most worrying thing is that if #LTCM which was a hedge fund managed by two @NobelPrize winners in Economics could not get things right, then what should one expect from humble risk practitioners like myself!?
imagine the amount of risk that is concealed by Black Box Models.
Always backtest and stress test your #risk models.
Not just the mathematical components, but also the semantics, the #hermeneutics, the syntax that is used for coding the automata, and the symbols which are shown on the analytical dashboard.
It is a big #CON industry at work!
Faster economic growth does not make the economy stable and strong.
Whereas, only focussing on the quantity of growth does not imply the quality derived is equally beneficial for the masses
Nordic nations have much smaller economies with slower growth rates compared to India, etc
A prime example of this argument is the Chilean Economy before the military coup d'état of September, 11th of 1973.
The aggregate demand expanded rapidly, and the economy boomed for a year or so under Allende.
Later runaway rate of inflation took all the benefits away. #shocks
This QE Quantitative Easing we have seen since the GFC has now devastated the Western World.
Inflation rates are at an all-time high since the 1970s.
Reflationery Economics has not helped the West to understand that expectations affect monetary policy more than the central bank