Risk Manager(ERM/Actuarial Sciences/Quant) Profile picture
STEM Risk Mgmt, Actuarial Finance, Macroeconomics, BIG DATA, ML, Fintechs, Derivatives, Climate & Analytics. Philosophy, Neuroscience, Psychology & Evolution
@RobsonReis_®️ Profile picture 1 added to My Authors
Nov 29 10 tweets 2 min read
How much maths is needed in private equity (also when compared to hedge funds or investment banking, for example)?
@CAIA_Blog Private Equity requires a good understanding of Finance and especially sector-specific finance such as Real Estate Finance Investments and so on.
In my opinion, the techniques used to model PE transactions have a lot in common with those that are applied to Listed Equity.
Nov 7 14 tweets 3 min read
The economic Potential of a nation can only be realized once its #microenterprise and its management make the right decisions, take the right actions based on the right sets of information derived from observations.
This Planning mindset cripples the market's ability to tweak Some countries still have Planning Commissions, Boards, and whatnot!
Fancy Soviet-style Archetypical Nomenclatures and institutions won't help in the digital age!
Macro-Resource Allocation should not be planned at all.
Price signals should direct the economic dialectic.
Nov 4 5 tweets 2 min read
The identity crisis in the USA has grown.
What is American?
An Immigrant Society?
The definition is now regarded as inundated.
It's predicted that people of colour, blacks, and Hispanics will overtake the White skin English Speaking People in the next 50 years or so. This has given rise to white supremacists, evangelical extremism in the bible belts, and narrow nationalism which is now come to be known as Populism;
Nov 3 17 tweets 2 min read
What maths does finance and risk management require?
Mathematics is the Queen of all Natural Sciences.
However, its applications in Social Sciences and its sub-fields such as Economics and Business Studies are growing all the time. Finance and Risk operating in conjunction are broadly categorized as subfields of Actuarial Sciences and Microeconomics.
That's my opinion.
I mean no offence to Accountants ;)
Nov 2 5 tweets 2 min read
The economic growth of the Blair-Brown duo years preceded the trend rate of the past.
The UK economy was largely in equilibrium, the Pound was stable and markets stabilized, avoided the trappings of boom-bust cycles, and the minimum wage helped reduce income inequality a little. The problem which economists at that time overlooked was that #Brown, who was the architect of the #UK's economic mirage, was based on the "soft touch" approach to financial risk regulation and supervision.
That backfired!!
GFC typified how wrong growth models hurt.
Oct 27 6 tweets 2 min read
Ever heard the old adage? Money goes where it grows.
That is why global capital flows to China and SE+NE Asia have become gargantuan over the last 70 years or so, especially after Deng introduced the Open policy in China in 1979. It worked for them for multiple reasons, but, the thing which differentiated the Asians from the Europeans was the progressive work ethic that promoted both smart and hard work together.
Oct 26 13 tweets 3 min read
As a manager, you have to make a choice.
Whether to transfer skills to someone who is not a loyal co-worker, or to adopt avoidant behaviour and let things come to pass.
This is both morally and managerially the most difficult trade-off one makes in a position of responsibility. Most of the time, we regret training subordinates who are disloyal and backbiters.
I have trained many people in my life who gave negative feedback to HR.
Dealing with such rogue elements in a firm tests the type of leadership and decision-making model employed.
Oct 25 6 tweets 2 min read
You know that an academic institution is in financial trouble when it goes overboard in selling/ marketing some or all of its pedantic programmes.
Some of the best universities in the world now send two to three emails a day to attract potential students.
#Covid has consequences If you have to make a choice between a lowly ranked UK university and its EU Counterpart, I would prefer the latter against the former!
The standard of education in Continental Europe is superb, and academic institutions have a reservoir of PhDs who are willing to supervise.
Sep 26 4 tweets 2 min read
The #ERM Crisis still haunts the BOE, which back then was controlled by the HM Treasury and Chancellor of the exchequer.
George Soros's Quantum Fund has now been replaced by countless Quantamenal FX Algo and HFT Funds and Specialized Investment Vehicles, backed up by Ai/ML. Once the currency and money market decline precipitates, conjointly, then open market mechanisms turn financial markets into a Darwinian jungle dominated by herd instincts and other complex emerging risks which pave the way forward for a Systemic Risk Meltdown.
Sep 26 9 tweets 2 min read
What you will not learn at the best business school or university is how to manage people!
Personnel management or people management skills can only be learned at the practical work desk.
That is what will make all the difference btw failure and success.
Good luck with your MBA! I have seen brilliant Students with a GPA of 3.9/4 failing in the real world.
Degrees, Exams, Diplomas, and Certificates don't make much out of anyone.
They are bureaucratic measures used by policymakers and scholars to delay the supply of labour and as a tool of social closure.
Sep 24 11 tweets 4 min read
The potential #criminal or perpetrator of protruding any suspicious action or decision based on heinous or harmful activity can be deterred by forcing them to weigh the consequences of mens rea & actus reus against the weight of punishments based on odds.
#bankers #roguetraders Bad bankers are akin to criminals in any other walk of life.
We must broaden the domains of criminology and sociology, including psychology, to understand rogue and kleptomaniac behaviour among money managers in both the public and private sectors.
#Fincrime is ubiquitous
Sep 23 4 tweets 2 min read
What kind of books, and academic manuscripts and other published texts should we add to a risk manager's library ecosystem?
Information is not just what Is stored inside IoT Devices, software programs, etc.
There should be a reading room in which one can enter & meditate? Call me old-fashioned, but I still need to take printouts of didactic reference materials and other educational documents to read before I begin to understand.
Just browsing on the web and downloading is not good enough for me.
Touching and turning the texts fortifies my memory.
Sep 11 13 tweets 6 min read
I am listening to #Starky, the #historian, who is trying his level best to defend slavery and #English #Buccaneer #William #Beckford.
William owned some 40,000 acres of #sugar plantation growing land and had thousands of enslaved #workers working on his property in #Jamaica. No wonder the bad memories survived.
During the 1970s Manley introduced Democratic Socialism in Jamaica which was a reactionary political movement against the injustices committed by the colonialists against the Jamaican People.
Economic historians confuse that with capitalism.
Aug 24 9 tweets 4 min read
The LTCM Crisis taught #Quants one thing in common.
Never trust the risk pricing/hedging models blindly.
The Black Scholes option model assumptions and the Value at Risk Metric both failed miserably.
The liquidity assumptions of the #VaR Model provided a false sense of security. The most worrying thing is that if #LTCM which was a hedge fund managed by two @NobelPrize winners in Economics could not get things right, then what should one expect from humble risk practitioners like myself!?
imagine the amount of risk that is concealed by Black Box Models.
Aug 23 4 tweets 1 min read
Faster economic growth does not make the economy stable and strong.
Whereas, only focussing on the quantity of growth does not imply the quality derived is equally beneficial for the masses
Nordic nations have much smaller economies with slower growth rates compared to India, etc A prime example of this argument is the Chilean Economy before the military coup d'état of September, 11th of 1973.
The aggregate demand expanded rapidly, and the economy boomed for a year or so under Allende.
Later runaway rate of inflation took all the benefits away.
Aug 16 7 tweets 2 min read
I am for education leading to human capital development, knowledge capital formation, talent management, and skill development, etc.
My views have adjusted slightly.
Most of the countries which have found themselves to be in trouble did include those with high literacy rates. Look at the Former GDR, now defunct Yugoslavia, USSR, and Somalia.
Other Warsaw Pact Nations provided compulsory education.
Shah's Iran was well educated.
Those states &/or regimes don't exist anymore.
Srilanka which had recently defaulted has an above 90% literacy rate.
Aug 14 13 tweets 3 min read
The #Wirecard Scandal once again highlighted the incompetence of external #auditing firms.
That is why firms must invest in setting up proactive Corporate Governance, Risk Management and Compliance desks.
These are very important silos in a company, which must work together. The best and most sought-after professionals should be working in these areas, especially after the #ENRON and Arthur Anderson Fiasco led to the naming and shaming of the audit and financial reporting professions.
Jul 24 16 tweets 3 min read
Will data science overcome quantitative finance in terms of employment and salary?
@CQFInstitute @datafitter Well, I think you are asking a relevant question.
It can be explained using a Social Darwinian Perspective.
First, the Simple answer =>
YES, => Quantitative Finance, will get absorbed into Data Sciences and Machine Learning Areas as a sub-field.
Jul 24 6 tweets 5 min read
Some of the best universities/ business schools to do a #PhD in #Finance =>
1. @LBS
2. @Wharton
4. @ChicagoBooth
5. @MIT
6. @LSEfinance
7. @BerkeleyMFE (Quantitative Pathway)
8. @StanfordGSB
9. @NYUSternRisk
10. Columbia Business School (Financial Engineering) This is not an exhaustive list.
I am just sipping coffee and writing this tweet.
There are many other institutions which might be damn good.
@Harvard Business School is the best for Business econs / #DBA.
Other Ivy League universities not aforementioned have superb PhD programs.
Jul 23 5 tweets 2 min read
MSMEs do not have the technical acumen or the human resource expertise to produce documents which are required by financing institutions.
The most difficulty comes to producing and presenting cash flow statements.
Some potential borrowers cannot compute cash projections Especially Micro and Small Firms, which are managed informally by households, usually do not maintain proper book-keeping and accounting systems.
Banks have to use their own historical loss databases to compute credit metrics such as PD, LGD, EAD,etc.
And most of them have errors