Hurricane preparation is not to be taken lightly. It isn't simply to protect from the storm itself, though. In recent years, most people in the US who die "in" a hurricane actually perish after the storm passes. We call these "stupid deaths," or indirect deaths. #hurricaneian 1/
I write about how people die in THE DEVIL NEVER SLEEPS because knowing how can help prepare us for the next time. As Ian grows, a threat comes from carbon monoxide poisoning from emergency generators. 2020 Hurricane Laura had 0 fatalities; 28 still died from faulty generators. 2/
This is what years of hurricane preparedness have taught us. We get better. The storm passes, but the threat remains. Preparation isn't about water or wind, often, but about gasses. Knowing this can mitigate harm because we can focus on the correct threat, a different devil. 3/
For those in #HurricaneIan path, be safe. Tie gasoline powererd generators down 20 feet from home. Test their safety features. Do not seek shelter in your car. Do not use stove or other appliances for heat. Keep rooms ventilated.
Minimize stupid deaths. #getready
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
To comment on the news from Buckingham Palace in the way I do I hope nobody takes it as morose or icky. This is what I do. Institutions prepare for things like this; it is sad, but anticipated. The notifications of a change at the House of Windsor are beginning. 1/
The Queen is Queen of a Commonwealth, and each country has expectations and requirements as this historic and rare event could occur momentarily. The Palace is notifying them not as some death watch, but to prepare. 2/
Banks, universities, and other public and private institutions across the globe will have a moment to respond to and the Palace is getting them ready. That is responsible conduct for the Crown (however you feel about it) and the monarchy (however you feel about it). 3/
Biden has been laying the groundwork for Th. speech, intended to isolate Trump from his voters. Less about a policy or a party, if you listen Biden is providing an off-ramp -- much like the January 6th Committee -- to the violence nurtured by Trump and his dwindling core. 1/
Biden's "semi fascist" remark treats Trump not as a political leader but as a violent anti-democratic force whose continuing stronghold is not pre-ordained. Biden began a similar narrative during his 1/6/22 speech, a year after the insurrection. 2/
Many will see this in the context of the midterms, and that may be true. It is also true that the threat of violence has increased as the election nears. But I would suspect this speech will be less red meat for Dem supporters, and more a way to further isolate Trump from his. 3/
Ok. Here we are.
Trump isn't hinting anymore about violence as an extension of politics. But I also think it is important to note that while this radicalizes some (who can be dangerous), it also repels many who no longer can pretend that there is a "good" and "bad" Trump. 1/
As I've written, I am not looking for a single "blow" to end MAGA incitement. Violent movements either grow or weaken. There are significant metrics suggesting that post-January 6th efforts have taken their toll. This is not wishful thinking; I am well aware of all the "buts." 2/
But terror and violent movements grow by the aura of a "win" and a capability to continue that myth. They also weaken when they can no longer convince new recruits or elites that there is anything but violence (in other words, they cannot moderate their stance). 3/
"[There is a] robust 'negative-lumping' effect. As problematic entities worked to better their ways, participants shifted to dismiss them if they fell short of categorical reform-despite distinctions in improvement."
Brilliant.
Ed O'Brien @UChicago. 1/ pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35920814/
This is such an important study by O'Brien. It documents how we tend to dismiss success, leading to a sense of futility and nihilism. It much better documents my less than scientific standard of "less bad" in studying disaster responses in THE DEVIL NEVER SLEEPS. 2/
But it is consistent in that the stories of incremental success -- did fewer people die, did the earth warm slower, was the destruction less destructive -- are tuned out when the goal isn't entirely met, which then puts into question the effort by even its proponents. 3/
Some takeaways after reading report: The training put the chief of the School District as head of the incident command. No command center was ever established (more below). The arriving police departments, understanding the chaos, did not assert control. 1/
Later in report, without an incident command addressing the confusion in communications, nobody questioned why the original decision to treat this as a "barricade" situation rather than an active shooter one is clear. Nobody approached the chief!!! 2/
This structural deficiency -- an incident command post which is truly response 101 -- then led to communications and response chaos and nobody, nobody of the 100s of law enforcement, challenged it because it wasn't clear what to challenge. 3/
THREAD: The Secret Service is just a government agency. It isn't magic. It has an important mission but it has gone on too long with no supervision or serious reform. It is simply not sustainable for it to go from crisis to scandal to crisis.
Thread on reforming agencies: 1/
Their mission is essential, but it failed in the most important one: supporting a successful and peaceful transition of power. The events of 1/6 are just exposing a much longer term need for non-partisan investigation and reform. 2/
I spend a lot of time working on fixing institutions so they are better prepared for a crisis, what we call "left of boom" planning in anticipation of the "boom," whatever it may be. This isn't rocket science as I say often in THE DEVIL NEVER SLEEPS. It just takes focus. 3/