Thread by @jimtankersley

In every recession since the 1970s, U.S. factory employment has fallen permanently -- the ensuing recovery doesn't bring enough job growth to make up for what was lost. This recession broke that trend, @arappeport @AnaSwanson & me: nytimes.com/2022/09/26/bus…

Inside those #s... 1/x

@arappeport @AnaSwanson First, there seem to be some people on this site today noting (correctly) that the US is still millions of factory jobs short of where it was when the automation/outsourcing trend took off in the late 70s. That's true. Hard to overstate how brutal the early 2000s were... 2/

@arappeport @AnaSwanson What makes this recovery different is speed and size of job growth. Usually factories lay off more workers than other industries in a recession. Didn't happen this time. Usually they're slower to rehire. Also didn't happen. 3/

@arappeport @AnaSwanson From the trough of the pandemic recession, manufacturing job growth is averaging 51k/month, on par with the recovery from the 1975 recession, the last time factories made up all the jobs they lost in a downturn.

In the 90s recovery, the average was -1k/mo. 2000s were worse. 4/

@arappeport @AnaSwanson Even if exclude the quick snap-back of May/June 2020, and just focus on the steady recovery since then, factory jobs have been growing by 33k/mo.

That's triple the growth rate under post-recession Obama and pre-recession Trump.

This chart is helpful: 5/

@arappeport @AnaSwanson Quick aside: Obama and Trump have remarkably similar career stats on factory jobs. Obama average -2k/mo over his presidency. Trump averaged -4k.

If you just measure Obama's record from the factory job trough of the '08 recession vs. Trump's pre-pandemic, it's abt 11k/mo each 6/

@arappeport @AnaSwanson Also notable that the pace of factory job creation has been fairly constant through the Trump/Biden parts of the pandemic recovery, if you exclude those first two snap-back months. 28k/mo for Trump, 33k/mo for Biden. 7/

@arappeport @AnaSwanson And yep, there's a long way to go. Just to get back to January 2008 levels, at the rate of factory job growth under Biden, would take a little more than two years.

Lots of challenges face the sector, including weakening global currencies, recession worries, etc. 8/

@arappeport @AnaSwanson Which is why the next few years will be a huge test of industrial policy. Biden admin believes it has the $$ and reg environment to change the calculus on where companies locate factory jobs. That's not a huge factor in the recovery thus far. We'll see if it is going ahead. fin/