White House Correspondent, The New York Times. Econ policy nerd. Dad. Backpacker. Cardinal🌲 Oregonian eternal.
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Feb 2, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
NEW: @BrianDeeseNEC -- President Biden's first and last call on big economic decisions -- will officially depart in mid-Feb. No new gig lined up. Leaving with a long policy legacy, including key roles in passing infrastructure & saving IRA from the ashes.
In every recession since the 1970s, U.S. factory employment has fallen permanently -- the ensuing recovery doesn't bring enough job growth to make up for what was lost. This recession broke that trend, @arappeport@AnaSwanson & me: nytimes.com/2022/09/26/bus…
Inside those #s... 1/x@arappeport@AnaSwanson First, there seem to be some people on this site today noting (correctly) that the US is still millions of factory jobs short of where it was when the automation/outsourcing trend took off in the late 70s. That's true. Hard to overstate how brutal the early 2000s were... 2/
Mar 25, 2021 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
Quick thread on the very brief part of the Biden presser that touched on economic policy, and what it tells us about the president's economic agenda thus far. Haven't done this in a while. Buckle up! 1/
First, looking backward: Biden started the presser with another touchdown dance on the $1.9T ARP. Celebrated 100m payments going out and UI claims falling to lowest point of pandemic.
Most notably, he embraced a consensus GDP growth forecast for 2021: 6%!!
2/
Aug 11, 2020 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
"The Riches of This Land" is out today. It's the story of the workers who really built the great American middle class, and a roadmap for rebuilding it now from the rubble of our crisis.
Now, if you'll indulge me, a quick thread...
I grew up in Oregon, in what used to be a timber county. In the 1980s and 90s I saw good jobs in the mills and the woods vanish. With them went the promise of a middle-class life for a lot of my schoolmates. I wondered: When will the economy start working for them again?
Jul 22, 2020 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
Remember back in January, when the Commerce secretary speculated that the coronavirus might bring jobs back to the United States? Well ... there's no sign it has. @AnaSwanson & I have the details today: nytimes.com/2020/07/22/bus…
There's a pattern here (quick thread)... 1/@AnaSwanson The Trump administration has repeatedly claimed that its policies are creating -- or will -- a wave of new "reshoring" of jobs. It's one of the central promises Trump made on the economy in 2016. He was going to bring jobs back. 2/
Jul 7, 2020 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
A brief thread on justice, and open debate:
They are, indeed, "the lifeblood of a liberal society". But the idea that they are only now, in today's climate, under attack, neglects the full experience of American history. 1/
It neglects the experience of women and men who were not tolerated, who were ostracized, whose rights were denied by the "blinding moral certainty" of the powerful white men who set the rules for the country. 2/
Jul 2, 2020 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
Ok friends. It's a Thursday afternoon of a holiday-shortened week, and it's 16 weeks since my household was first told not to come into the office anymore, and now seems a good time for a "where are we in this economic recovery" thread. So let's go. 1/
Back in March, huge parts of the American economy shuttered, as the coronavirus spread rapidly and gov officials moved to restrict economic activity. The idea then was, turn the economy off until it's safe to turn it back on again. nytimes.com/2020/03/22/us/… 2/
Mar 14, 2020 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
Quick Saturday thread, stepping back from all the whirlwind developments of this week and trying to make sense of a fundamental tension right now in Washington (and the country) on COVID-19 response. 1/
The tension really boils down to: How many people should the federal government be paying to stay home for the next several weeks, who otherwise would be working? 2/
Dec 5, 2019 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Today's numbers from the OECD are a window into:
*The effects of the Trump tax cuts
*The wide gulfs in policy among Democratic presidential candidates
*And a brewing revolution in economic thinking.
First, as @RichardRubinDC notes, the OECD data show US tax revenues (at all levels of government) falling from 25.9% of GDP in 2016 to 24.3% in 2018. The Trump tax cuts are the big driver there. 2/
Sep 6, 2019 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Quick story from a #BPEA on-record reporter lunch today discussing a new @gabriel_zucman & Saez wealth tax paper. One of the discussants was Greg Mankiw, Harvard economist and former Bush CEA chair, who is a critic of the wealth tax proposal. 1/@gabriel_zucman One of the Zucman/Saez arguments is that a wealth tax will help the US by reducing the influence of the ultra-wealthy on politics. Mankiw -- who had already critiqued the proposal on several fronts, including efficacy -- was responding to that argument. 2/
Apr 29, 2019 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
The White House is reviewing Fed nominee Stephen Moore's past writings: nytimes.com/2019/04/29/us/…
As Larry Kudlow noted last week, Moore has a long paper (and video) trail. Which means new statements and writings keep being unearthed. A couple new examples follow:
Apr 16, 2019 • 16 tweets • 7 min read
So @bencasselman & my mentions have been a raging inferno the last 36 hrs, thanks to this story -- nytimes.com/2019/04/14/bus… -- (and the president who just read its headline, among others who shared it), and I actually think we can all learn something from the ashes. Thread. 1/@bencasselman The story is about the wide disconnect between the # of Americans who got a tax cut this year from the 2017 Trump tax law, and the much smaller # who *think* they got a tax cut. It made people angry. 2/
Mar 18, 2019 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Other bleak findings from the newly released American Economic Association survey of its members, which @bencasselman & I write up here: nytimes.com/2019/03/18/bus… 1/@bencasselman Sexual assault, attempted assault and unwanted touching are distressingly common for women in econ. Ben summarizes here:
Five years ago, when I was hiring for what would become Storyline (RIP) at WaPo, a young reporter at an alt-weekly in LA emailed me to apply for a job. She told me something to the effect of, "I just love telling stories so damn much."
In honor of the now-departed @Wonkblog (RIP), a brief wonk-thread about economic projections, tax cuts and two rapidly diverging theories of the economy. Also, the Trump re-elect. 1/
Last year, after the passage of President Trump's signature tax cuts -- and a bipartisan bill to boost defense and other fed spending -- the White House projected 3.1% growth for 2018. @USCBO projected 3.3%. We don't have final numbers yet, but it's looks like they were ~right 2/
Jan 9, 2019 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
This is a chart of Q1 tax revenues (personal+corp+payroll) by fiscal year. Not adjusted for inflation.
FY 2019 is the first period when the Trump tax cuts were fully in effect.
No, the cuts aren't "paying for themselves."
Allow me one more chart on this.
Nov 19, 2018 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
So Robert Samuelson has a column today arguing that wage stagnation is a myth -- not because of inflation measurements, but bc CBO shows strong post-tax/transfer income gains for the bottom quintile in recent years. Is he right? Let's go to the charts! 1/
First, here's his argument: That actually, income gains have been broad based. (He toggles between 1980 or 2000 as the starting point) 2/
Jul 27, 2018 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
The economy is booming. Hardly any congressional candidates -- anywhere, from either party -- are bragging about it in ads. Me, from Ohio (with data): nytimes.com/2018/07/27/us/…
In OH-12, btw, Danny O'Connor is showing us the Dem blueprint for talking abt the tax bill in R-leaning districts this fall:
*Rip into corporate cuts
*Raise concerns about the deficit
*Warn abt cuts to Social Security
*Say they'll keep middle class cuts (but don't dwell on it)
Jul 10, 2018 • 8 tweets • 1 min read
"Tunas, not elsewhere specified..."
Lotta fish in the next wave of proposed Trump tariffs on China: ustr.gov/sites/default/…
"Boat or dock fenders, whether or not inflatable, of noncellular vulcanized rubber other than hard rubber"
Jun 22, 2018 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
OK, I've now done the math on Storey County, Nevada's newest opportunity zone. My quoted tweet, here, is incorrect. I'm going to correct it in a stream. Treasury didn't change the OppZone rules. Nevada officials took advantage of rules already on the books. 1/
...And it's notable that this came at the very end of the designation process. We saw the opposite in the early designations: Some really suspect choices (Stanford campus!) that were reversed by states before final list.
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