Very important thread by @JeremyCliffe on the normalisation of far-right parties in Europe and its cooperation with the centre-right.

I would, however, add two important points:
@JeremyCliffe First, it's not just centre-right parties moving further to the right (like the US republicans), but also far-right parties becoming more moderate, especially on EU policy. See Meloni, Salvini, Le Pen et al all moving away from calling for their version of either Euro or EU-exit.
@JeremyCliffe Instead, as @APHClarkson, these far-right parties have become 'Europeanised' - they know voters don't want to leave the EU, so instead they want to remake the EU in their image, with hard migration, a 'Europe of nations' w/o rule of law protections.

@JeremyCliffe @APHClarkson 2nd, in this sense, the German AfD is still an outlier - unlike Le Pen, Meloni & Co it has become more radical, moved from Conservative to far-right territory. This is why - despite today's Merz rhetorical disaster - they are further from power than their European peers.
From an EU point of view, this is both good and bad.

Good, because it means that not every national elections is a fight for the survival of the Union. Meloni as Italian PM is no longer seen as the preface to an Italian Euro or even EU exit. This is largely thanks to #Brexit.
However, this also means that the struggle for the values of the EU and where its political power centres are, is real. Does the EU want to be a liberal, open Community based on the rule of law, or one tolerating a growing number of countries with far-right parties in power?

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Nicolai von Ondarza

Nicolai von Ondarza Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @NvOndarza

Sep 23
Today's massive tax cuts in the new UK budget also mark a turning point in the economics of #Brexit which will decide how the success or failure of Brexit will be judged in the future.

A thread.
First, at the heart of Brexit was always an economic inconsistency. Some Leavers supported it to protect the UK from globalisation, attacking the EU for being a vehicle of liberal policies.
Many of those ended up as first time Tory voters for Boris Johnson, i.e. the ‘red wall’.

They wanted Brexit for a culturally conservative, but economic left-wing policies.
Read 10 tweets
Sep 9, 2021
The almost complete absence of any EU discussion in the German #btw2021 election campaign is bordering on the absurd.

This will be a key election for the EU, but also for determining German policies. But you really need a magnifying glass to find any discussion on EU policies.
The 'Wahl-O-Mat', a vote adviser tool, has only a single question on the EU - "Should Germany leave the EU". This is absolutely irrelevant for German policy and resembles on one extreme party. No question on fiscal policy etc. that could provide nuance betw the major parties.
Today the height of absurdity was reached by an accusation that a chancellor Olaf Scholz 'could lead to the break-up of the EU', both trivalizing real threats to the Union and misrepresenting where the discussion on social policy in the EU is or could lead to.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 5, 2021
Pre-Weekend thought on #Brexit, Northern Ireland Protocol and what it means for the EU-UK relations.

To me, part of why the UK is escalating again is due to very different lessons learned from the Internal Market Bill and its effect on the trade negotiations last year.
From a Brexiteer perspective, the Internal Market Bill is often regarded as a successful negotiation ploy. It seemingly showed the EU what a risk no deal would also be to the EU, and how serious the UK was about no deal. It thus helped getting more concessions out of the EU. /2
Following this, escalating now on NI is seen as giving the UK negotiation leverage. It forces EU attention on the difficult situation in NI, gives the UK gov the support from ERG+DUP and is expected to help generate pressure on the EU to cave on demands for change of NI protocol.
Read 9 tweets
Feb 26, 2021
High time to think about how a possible 'reset' of EU-UK relations can be politically achieved. The EU should be open for this, but I fear the political commitment to make post-#Brexit relations work needs to come from both sides, including the UK government.
In January, in an (for me) unusual optimistic take, I wrote how the TCA could be the foundation to rebuild the EU-UK relationship:

swp-berlin.org/en/publication…

5 factors were crucial, incl the dynamic nature of the TCA, still close economic links and the co-responsibility for NI.
Others, like @Mij_Europe and @CER_Grant, were far more sceptical, stressing the pol dynamics at play in London (and to a lesser extent the EU) would continue to burden the relationship. So far, they have been proven right, with a confrontational rather than a cooperative dynamic.
Read 7 tweets
Feb 3, 2021
UK public discourse seems to be even growing in furore over the Art. 16 debacle. But even if you acknowledge the EU Commission made a mistake, it is time for much needed perspective:
The EU Commission got under quick pressure from Ireland and corrected the mistake within a few hours. Further internal pressure will now lead to safeguards around the NI protocol.
While the UK gov is today threatening to trigger art. 16, last year threatened to violate the NI protocol with the Internal Market Bill and got the House of Commons to vote twice for that explicit violation of the UK's legal commitments.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 3, 2020
Rumours are flying wild on how close we are to a #Brexit deal. My sense is that a deal is still possible, but the necessary compromises have yet to be made and time is running out soon.

To me it is therefore high time to think also about the political ramifications of no deal.
In this analysis, I look at three political scenarios:
1. Friendly no deal - in which EU and UK seemlessly continue negotiations and try to limit no deal fallout via unilateral actions and mini deals. Ruled out by the EU, though the temptation will be there in some member states.
2. A 'grown-up no deal' - in which the no deal consequences come, but after some confrontations both sides get back to negotiation table quickly. Preferred by EU, likely will be supported by US, but does not square with UK politics which will need to blame EU for no deal fallout.
Read 8 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(