I don't see evidence #Putin is in trouble yet, but there is something different about dissatisfaction and protest this time. A quick thread on #Russia🧵
I've argued over the years that prior waves of dissatisfaction and protest lacked something critical: universality. 2012 was geographically concentrated, trucker protests dispersed, environmental protests inherently local, Navalny protests limited demographically, etc.
We've now met that condition. #Mobilization touches many people in many places, all at once (especially the ethnic republics it appears to be concentrated in). But there are two other factors here.
Literature on protest has focused on events/problems that disrupt the quotidien -- daily routine and way of being -- as a major driver of popular action. This is why local environmental issues have gathered steam: a bad smell spurs action, a stagnant economy... less so.
Having your brother issued a draft notice at work (happened to a friend of mine), having the men in your life plucked away and sent to potentially die in a war (let alone a war of choice outside of Russia) is disruptive.
There's also prospect theory here: humans (and primates) are risk averse when comfortable (winning) and risk taking when we perceive we're losing. As @DAlperovitch pointed out recently, repressive means that ordinarily hold back protest are now contrasted with the risk of death.
Taken together, I think we have three pieces of the equation this time that we didn't before. I don't know if this is sufficient for a serious risk to Putin, but it is certainly different.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
