So at #AFF22 invocation of need for trusted supply chains, #allyshoring, etc. but also that this can be cost effective. But we need to tackle reality that Russia and China offered commodities and components at lower cost/greater quantities. To generate #allyshoring … 1/
we must squarely face the dollars and cents equation and WHO will pay the differential between shifting away from cheaper “autocratic” to more expensive democratic providers. 2/
20 years ago, we could argue increased integration with China & Russia not only made economic sense but seemed to aid them in their own internal liberalization & to take their places in the post-Cold War order. Today we must face reality that our economic & national security… 3/
interests are in conflict, we have to make choices and accept the costs. 4/
Adding this from @ABaerbock’s speech earliest this month …
☢️ posturing is designed to forestall greater intervention by the West if Putin believes he can escalate conventional strikes to further destroy infrastructure and hold on to at least some territory. While Zelensky’s government holds out vision of a modernized postwar European 2/
state, Putin is aiming for creating a “Moldova plus” where EU enthusiasm for footing a reconstruction bill has waned. And he seems willing to run the risk of Russian collapse by continuing the war for several reasons. 3/
Turning now to the Zelensky speech. Ukraine can only negotiate with a Russia without Putin. Whether this will end the Macron, MbS, Erdogan efforts to try and get a diplomatic process started is unclear. 🇺🇦 will also seek expedited NATO membership. 1/
Zelensky says 🇺🇦 has been de facto member. This of course is not a legal category but years of forging 🇺🇦-NATO ties paid off. Can’t imagine we’d see a similar response for 🇬🇪 🇲🇩 or 🇰🇿. 2/
NATO members will have to agree on what an expedited process would look like but also about long-standing principles that a candidate not be engaged in active hostilities and in control of territory. 3/
Really enjoyed meeting @FirstSeaLord at #AFF22 (@FutureAtlantic) & to hear his assessments. Earlier in the day @Jesse_Norman laid out an expansive vision of a trading network of democratic states across the Pacific, Indian & Atlantic #transoceanic regions. 1/
These supply chains running across the maritime domain need to be secured. The #Nordstream incidents show the challenges of securing all of this infrastructure. Allied navies including @RoyalNavy & @USNavy will have to do more and be able to dynamically shift across regions. 2/
Platforms intended to endure for decades must be able to field iterative, agile capabilities to respond to these new challenges. Something we also teach at @NavalWarCollege to rising national security leaders is importance of a mindset that emphasizes resilience & adaptation. 3/
Proposals for “economic NATO” & all sorts of supply chain and energy transitions have to face domestic #doorstep realities that @JLPartnersPolls did for #AFF22 (@FutureAtlantic) that such proposals are harder to move when majorities in both 🇬🇧 & 🇺🇸 feel financial insecurities 1/
both at the personal level (52% in 🇬🇧 & 66% in 🇺🇸) but also at the country-national level. This suggests major new initiatives for regionalization will face political headwinds. 2/
UK ambassador Dame Karen Pierce, at #AFF22 (@FutureAtlantic): U.S.-UK tech partnership in 21st century could be just as significant as military cooperation was in 20th century. 1/
And PM Liz Truss’s message to #AFF sounds themes @ashjain50 has stated: economic partnership of like-minded nations to advance an agenda of liberty. In other words the #DTEP (democratic trade and economic partnership). 2/
Sets the agenda for what they are terming #reglobalization … because of impacts if #fracturedglobalization - rethinking institutional arrangements and supply chains, and necessary items for securing this. 3/
First, from the Ukrainian side, keep in mind Patton's dictum during the Battle of the Bulge that "we can still lose this war." Too many times, in the face of Russian reversals, twitterati are quick to proclaim that things are over. Major setbacks for Russia, yes ... 2/
but Ukrainian forces are recapturing areas that were lost this year, not the areas seized in 2014. For the Russian side, some very difficult questions. Russian social media is asking them. a) is this another massive intelligence failure? why was this offensive not detected ... 3/