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Editor of FPRI's Orbis

@FPRI_Orbis

Sep 30

@RadioFreeTom

I’m not disputing @RadioFreeTom here but would suggest an alternative of a method behind the madness. What Putin might think he can pull off … 1/

https://twitter.com/radiofreetom/status/1575886848135667712

☢️ posturing is designed to forestall greater intervention by the West if Putin believes he can escalate conventional strikes to further destroy infrastructure and hold on to at least some territory. While Zelensky’s government holds out vision of a modernized postwar European 2/

state, Putin is aiming for creating a “Moldova plus” where EU enthusiasm for footing a reconstruction bill has waned. And he seems willing to run the risk of Russian collapse by continuing the war for several reasons. 3/

Read 10 tweets

Editor of FPRI's Orbis

@FPRI_Orbis

Sep 30

Turning now to the Zelensky speech. Ukraine can only negotiate with a Russia without Putin. Whether this will end the Macron, MbS, Erdogan efforts to try and get a diplomatic process started is unclear. 🇺🇦 will also seek expedited NATO membership. 1/

Zelensky says 🇺🇦 has been de facto member. This of course is not a legal category but years of forging 🇺🇦-NATO ties paid off. Can’t imagine we’d see a similar response for 🇬🇪 🇲🇩 or 🇰🇿. 2/

NATO members will have to agree on what an expedited process would look like but also about long-standing principles that a candidate not be engaged in active hostilities and in control of territory. 3/

Read 6 tweets

Editor of FPRI's Orbis

@FPRI_Orbis

Sep 29

@JLPartnersPolls

Proposals for “economic NATO” & all sorts of supply chain and energy transitions have to face domestic #doorstep realities that @JLPartnersPolls did for #AFF22 (@FutureAtlantic) that such proposals are harder to move when majorities in both 🇬🇧 & 🇺🇸 feel financial insecurities 1/

both at the personal level (52% in 🇬🇧 & 66% in 🇺🇸) but also at the country-national level. This suggests major new initiatives for regionalization will face political headwinds. 2/

@Judah_Grunstein

Tying this to the ongoing discussion between @Judah_Grunstein @PatPorter76 & @EmmaMAshford about a U.S. global role and its link to the dollar, #AFF22 (@FutureAtlantic) convos must connect these expansive plans to domestic fault lines & skepticism about the #doorstep benefits. 3/

Read 5 tweets

Editor of FPRI's Orbis

@FPRI_Orbis

Sep 29

So at #AFF22 invocation of need for trusted supply chains, #allyshoring, etc. but also that this can be cost effective. But we need to tackle reality that Russia and China offered commodities and components at lower cost/greater quantities. To generate #allyshoring … 1/

we must squarely face the dollars and cents equation and WHO will pay the differential between shifting away from cheaper “autocratic” to more expensive democratic providers. 2/

20 years ago, we could argue increased integration with China & Russia not only made economic sense but seemed to aid them in their own internal liberalization & to take their places in the post-Cold War order. Today we must face reality that our economic & national security… 3/

Read 5 tweets

Editor of FPRI's Orbis

@FPRI_Orbis

Sep 28

@FutureAtlantic

UK ambassador Dame Karen Pierce, at #AFF22 (@FutureAtlantic): U.S.-UK tech partnership in 21st century could be just as significant as military cooperation was in 20th century. 1/

@ashjain50

And PM Liz Truss’s message to #AFF sounds themes @ashjain50 has stated: economic partnership of like-minded nations to advance an agenda of liberty. In other words the #DTEP (democratic trade and economic partnership). 2/

Sets the agenda for what they are terming #reglobalization … because of impacts if #fracturedglobalization - rethinking institutional arrangements and supply chains, and necessary items for securing this. 3/

Read 6 tweets

Editor of FPRI's Orbis

@FPRI_Orbis

Sep 10

https://twitter.com/business/status/1568599174660112385

Amidst this rapidly-developing story, some observations ... 1/ (A thread)

https://twitter.com/business/status/1568599174660112385

First, from the Ukrainian side, keep in mind Patton's dictum during the Battle of the Bulge that "we can still lose this war." Too many times, in the face of Russian reversals, twitterati are quick to proclaim that things are over. Major setbacks for Russia, yes ... 2/

but Ukrainian forces are recapturing areas that were lost this year, not the areas seized in 2014. For the Russian side, some very difficult questions. Russian social media is asking them. a) is this another massive intelligence failure? why was this offensive not detected ... 3/

Read 11 tweets

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