The NHC's forecasting for #HurricaneIAN remains tricky. Inching closer to the North/South Carolina border. And from satellite data, it looks possible that the center of #HurricaneIan is east of the current line.
The specialist HRRR model, which proved more accurate than the main models in predicting the path across Florida is now in agreement with ECMWF, GFS and NAM-CONUS on the location of landfall, but there is a broad range of intensity from 973-984 mb.
There is also a 6 hour range in arrival time among the four models from 1pm to 7pm. Due to the size of the storm, the impacts of #HurricaneIAN on the Carolinas & beyond are already well and truly underway over night local time.
So lets look at the satellite imagery. For this I am using the CMISS tool suite - an open source suite that utilises the live satellite floater data feeds - and highlights the important features - location and strength of convection and rotation.
Whilst #Hurricane Ian has strengthened a little the extent of the shear it is experiencing is very very high - which you can see as the center of circulation is only has convection to the north. Remarkably though it is still comitted to turning to the North West regardless.
From what I can discern the actual center of circulation is now considerably south of the the pointy cloud element on the LHS.
CONCLUSION: On that basis of this I think #HurricaneIAN is moving slower than expected - and East of where forecast therefore not on the current track. Landfall may therefore be further East of forecast in the direction of to Myrtle Beach/Wilmington.
Given this, I think it is important for the NHC to provide media with a live stream of accurate positioning data, as the graphics which have been broadcast throughout this storm since landfall in Florida, have often been wrong.
In this - latest live satellite image - it is clar that the storm is continuing to move north eastwards (the land is moving South West) and by now according to the track #HurricaneIAN is supposed to be moving North.
The Radar imagery here is a tell. #HurricaneIAN mayhave even stalled - which would explain its ability to develop rain bands in a circle - their appearance on sunrise also makes sense.
This is not good news as the longer the storm spends over water the stronger it is able to become. Its ability to do so whilst experiencing 50knots of shear is extraordinary.
These are all Israeli IDF army officers who were trained in the uk
Source: - Declassified -
NEW | Declassified has obtained a list of Israelis who graduated from the Royal College of Defence Studies in London.
Israeli officers fighting in Gaza have received training at Britain’s prestigious Royal College of Defence Studies (RCDS), Declassified reveals. /1
At least 32 Israeli military figures, including senior commanders such as Colonel Yaniv Asor, head of the Israeli occupation forces Southern Command, and director-general Amir Baram, are RCDS alumni, 6 more trained at the UK’s Advanced Command & Staff Course-Oxfordshire. /2
The Gaza flotilla is intending as I understand from informed sources in contact with the flotilla intending to pause again and regroup in Malta on its trip to Israel to break the seige in Gaza.
The flotilla is in my view on very grave danger and ought to be being escorted by European naval vessels.
Sources close to the flotilla inform me that there is evidence of internal sabotage of the planned humanitarian mission and may have been infiltrated by bad actors.
Some media participating in the flotilla were expelled in Tunisia and it seems possible that Israel is involved.
At this point following the Qatar obscenity Israel is now breaking the internet and the world.
something decisive is needed to break Israel - a peaceful action that will work and show the world that justice still exists and that peace is possible.
A wise friend proposed a brilliant idea. Every nation on earth which is willing and able should send a frigate to the Mediterranean Sea and take a message to Israel that it cannot ignore.
The foundations of the United Nations itself are now crumbling under the weight of the Gaza Obscenity and nations like Britain that seem to have been turned are facing protest and resistance of epic proportions from their citizens.
I’ll be posting videos and news here on Twitter from the flotilla which is about to depart from Majorca for Tunis on the first leg of the journey to Gaza.
More boats are expected to join the flotilla from Europe and North Africa along the way as it moves west across the Mediterranean. @GretaThunberg is making the voyage again and Israel will not be able to contain or stop this flotilla most likely. And definitely not the publicity.
This first video is of a wind squall hitting one of the boats as it departs Barcelona.
Netanyahu has proposed a pathway to end the war in Gaza under pressure primarily from the U.S. UK, France & Germany. Spain and Ireland and several other European nations & the European Commission.
The @israelipm sounds defeated. Hopefully this is the beginning of the end. The deal being offered to Gaza is far from perfect but it sounds workable in Netanyahus outline.
@IsraeliPM Whether it will be approved by Hamas however is unclear and rather complicated - as it’s unclear who inside Gaza would be in a position to respond to the offer. Many of Hamas’s fighters may prefer to die as martyrs also than to agree to any deal.