"Managed retreat" is the use of disaster relief funding to incentive people to move from their homes to safer areas, permanently. In 2019, @milesobrien and I explored this pressing issue for a @MyRadarWX documentary after the fires in Paradise, CA. 1/
You will hear a lot about "managed retreat" in days to come. Our disaster management system was based on a premise that disasters were random and rare. That is no longer true, but we still pay people to return to where they were before. My take in 2016. 2/ democracyjournal.org/magazine/39/sm…
Our insurance system, and the stop gap of the publicly funded National Flood Insurance Program, are inadequate to protect homeowners and the underinsured are harmed in so many ways. And still, we do the same thing over and over. 3/ cnn.com/2022/09/30/bus…
I write and work on this; I even penned a book. Our disaster management system is not sustainable. I know it is hard to address after a tragic disaster. But. as a government policy, we continue to incentive risk, though the devil returns again and again. #managedretreat 4/4
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Soon, search and rescue efforts will end and recovery efforts will take lead. It can be a heart wrenching moment, an admission that those lost are not likely to survive, but it is necessary.* This next phase, recovery, also has its guidelines and priorities. #HurricaneIan@CNN
1/
Just b/c I find this interesting doesn't mean you do, but it might be helpful because all of it look so disorganized and ad hoc. It is less so than it appears. 40K power lineman don't just show up in FL; they are part of mutual aid for this next phase. 2/
The recovery efforts are always exceptionally political, and not just Dem v. GOP. Local entities will compete with the state. Locals will compete with each other for resources. The wealthy will get more than they should; poorer communities will get less than they need. 3/
Hurricane preparation is not to be taken lightly. It isn't simply to protect from the storm itself, though. In recent years, most people in the US who die "in" a hurricane actually perish after the storm passes. We call these "stupid deaths," or indirect deaths. #hurricaneian 1/
I write about how people die in THE DEVIL NEVER SLEEPS because knowing how can help prepare us for the next time. As Ian grows, a threat comes from carbon monoxide poisoning from emergency generators. 2020 Hurricane Laura had 0 fatalities; 28 still died from faulty generators. 2/
This is what years of hurricane preparedness have taught us. We get better. The storm passes, but the threat remains. Preparation isn't about water or wind, often, but about gasses. Knowing this can mitigate harm because we can focus on the correct threat, a different devil. 3/
To comment on the news from Buckingham Palace in the way I do I hope nobody takes it as morose or icky. This is what I do. Institutions prepare for things like this; it is sad, but anticipated. The notifications of a change at the House of Windsor are beginning. 1/
The Queen is Queen of a Commonwealth, and each country has expectations and requirements as this historic and rare event could occur momentarily. The Palace is notifying them not as some death watch, but to prepare. 2/
Banks, universities, and other public and private institutions across the globe will have a moment to respond to and the Palace is getting them ready. That is responsible conduct for the Crown (however you feel about it) and the monarchy (however you feel about it). 3/
Biden has been laying the groundwork for Th. speech, intended to isolate Trump from his voters. Less about a policy or a party, if you listen Biden is providing an off-ramp -- much like the January 6th Committee -- to the violence nurtured by Trump and his dwindling core. 1/
Biden's "semi fascist" remark treats Trump not as a political leader but as a violent anti-democratic force whose continuing stronghold is not pre-ordained. Biden began a similar narrative during his 1/6/22 speech, a year after the insurrection. 2/
Many will see this in the context of the midterms, and that may be true. It is also true that the threat of violence has increased as the election nears. But I would suspect this speech will be less red meat for Dem supporters, and more a way to further isolate Trump from his. 3/
Ok. Here we are.
Trump isn't hinting anymore about violence as an extension of politics. But I also think it is important to note that while this radicalizes some (who can be dangerous), it also repels many who no longer can pretend that there is a "good" and "bad" Trump. 1/
As I've written, I am not looking for a single "blow" to end MAGA incitement. Violent movements either grow or weaken. There are significant metrics suggesting that post-January 6th efforts have taken their toll. This is not wishful thinking; I am well aware of all the "buts." 2/
But terror and violent movements grow by the aura of a "win" and a capability to continue that myth. They also weaken when they can no longer convince new recruits or elites that there is anything but violence (in other words, they cannot moderate their stance). 3/
"[There is a] robust 'negative-lumping' effect. As problematic entities worked to better their ways, participants shifted to dismiss them if they fell short of categorical reform-despite distinctions in improvement."
Brilliant.
Ed O'Brien @UChicago. 1/ pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35920814/
This is such an important study by O'Brien. It documents how we tend to dismiss success, leading to a sense of futility and nihilism. It much better documents my less than scientific standard of "less bad" in studying disaster responses in THE DEVIL NEVER SLEEPS. 2/
But it is consistent in that the stories of incremental success -- did fewer people die, did the earth warm slower, was the destruction less destructive -- are tuned out when the goal isn't entirely met, which then puts into question the effort by even its proponents. 3/