#highyield credit watch 👀 - cracks starting to show? "Credit stress nearing critical zone (BofA) .. Investors fled risky assets over fears of a recession, pulling $3 billion from high-yield bonds & $1.9 billion from leveraged loans in the wk ended Sept. 28"; liquidity drying up?
Investors Balk at Risky Buyout Debt - bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Even private credit direct lenders are pulling back from market - bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
As a reminder, u/w standards this past cycle were poor, e.g. ~90% of US leveraged loan issuance is cov-lite; the trip wires to warn lenders aren't there this time - so as slowing growth + cost inflation => margin compression & declining FCF, no warnings before defaults occur Image
The BDCs are where some of the really problematic lending has occurred , and performance over past month as credit mkt turmoil picked up indicates as such - 6 largest BDCs down 9% - 21% over past month vs. 3% - 5% across $HYG $JNK $SRLN $BKLN - Image

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More from @ValueSituations

Aug 22
Commodity prices can still rise as economic growth & demand declines if there's not enough of *existing* basic supply. I think supply matters more than demand right now #precarityofsupply -->
Constrained power supply =constrained production of critical materials for which their remains strategic demand - ft.com/content/0906df…
Declining demand due to recessionary concerns won't change the weather to the betterment of basic supply of key commodities across materials, agriculture and energy - wsj.com/articles/droug…
Read 4 tweets
Aug 19
@Edark94 @MadThunderdome @Josh_Young_1 evening gents, just catching up on this discussion thread now; first off, to be clear, yes this is NOT a good biz or even a good industry, E&C/EPC historically terrible and $SPM in particular has been (and remains) a BASKETCASE, BUT -
I simply highlighted $SPM recently as an interesting special sit torque play on the energy security theme following its capital raise (bail out) - I see it effectively as a quasi-distressed sit or an option on a new energy security bull mkt, AND it's cheaper than it seems -
- as I commented before in the tweet @Edark94 highlighted it's debt/cash neutral now & trades at ~2x on PF basis; I set out some thoughts on it before for those interested; ALSO - valuesits.substack.com/p/weekly-bulle… -
Read 10 tweets
Aug 19
There has been much discussion about how the recent rollover in commodity prices is due to recessionary fears and demand destruction from already high prices - but there is a class of commodity that appears to be bucking the trend - titanium feedstocks, namely ilmenite
Ilmenite is a mineral sand that is the main input for titanium dixoxide and titanium metal; Kenmare Resources Plc $KMR #KMR, the world's largest ilmenite producer (~8%-10% global mkt share) this wk reported H1 results, which noted record pricing for its products AND -
reported recent price increases are continuing into Q3 (as other commodity prices have fallen), attributable to tight global supply & low inventories -
Read 6 tweets
Aug 16
After ~15 months, I've just passed 10k followers on Twitter / #fintwit. My sincere thanks to all who follow me & who read the Value Situations newsletter. I am working through a pipeline of very interesting, idiosyncratic equity ideas & I look forward to sharing these w/ readers;
You can read about my approach and newsletter offering here - valuesits.substack.com/about
For a cost of $500/year or $50/month, paid subscribers receive 2 - 3 actionable public equity ideas per quarter, presented in a buy-side investment memo format -
Read 7 tweets
May 3
Market Risk & A Buffett Special Sit🧵- Of all the coverage of the Berkshire $BRK annual meeting over the weekend, what I found most interesting was the news of $BRK 's ENORMOUS special situation trade via a merger arb play on the $MSFT / $ATVI deal –
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Is this one of the largest $ merger arb trades ever? – based on media reports, $BRK acquired an incremental ~7.6% or ~59.5m shares of $ATVI post-31 Dec-21, which at avg. price of ~$80 post deal announced = a ~$4.76bn investment - Image
Merger arb is a classic special sit strategy, and many are unaware that it was a key one for Buffett in his pre-Berkshire days managing the Buffett Partnership funds, when “Workouts” as Buffett called merger arb comprised 30%-40% of his portfolio;
Read 16 tweets
Mar 4
The Russian army’s assault on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine is alarming, and has triggered a sell-off in uranium equities on ASX that is expected to flow through to Euro & US names today; however this sell-off seems misplaced considering the facts-
Rather than rehash others’ analysis of the situation I thought I’d compile a short thread of why this (abhorrent) attack on Zapprizhzhia is NOT a nuclear disaster scenario, based on informed sources -
Read 8 tweets

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