A significant cog in the global supply chain now gone, due to what I've previously termed as the shifting global political (& economic) order, and yet another example of the Precarity of Supply. Sustained inflation seems inevitable. reuters.com/business/maers… Previous thoughts; - A New Megatrend - valuesits.substack.com/p/weekly-bulle…

On Monday, I published a new watchlist idea that is a quality-value compounder & serial acquirer that has outperformed many of the best regarded acquirer/platform companies including TransDigm $TDG, Halma Plc $HLMA.LN & Danaher $DHR - furthermore this name is a "Buffett Stock" - - in the sense that this idea meets all of Berkshire's Acquisition Criteria as outlined in $BRK shareholder letters over the years (from 2014 Letter below) -

#highyield credit watch 👀 - cracks starting to show? "Credit stress nearing critical zone (BofA) .. Investors fled risky assets over fears of a recession, pulling $3 billion from high-yield bonds & $1.9 billion from leveraged loans in the wk ended Sept. 28"; liquidity drying up?

https://twitter.com/business/status/1575928735114592275

Investors Balk at Risky Buyout Debt - bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Commodity prices can still rise as economic growth & demand declines if there's not enough of *existing* basic supply. I think supply matters more than demand right now #precarityofsupply -->

https://twitter.com/business/status/1561610394883563521

Constrained power supply =constrained production of critical materials for which their remains strategic demand - ft.com/content/0906df…

@Edark94 @MadThunderdome @Josh_Young_1 evening gents, just catching up on this discussion thread now; first off, to be clear, yes this is NOT a good biz or even a good industry, E&C/EPC historically terrible and $SPM in particular has been (and remains) a BASKETCASE, BUT -

https://twitter.com/Edark94/status/1558069456915537921

I simply highlighted $SPM recently as an interesting special sit torque play on the energy security theme following its capital raise (bail out) - I see it effectively as a quasi-distressed sit or an option on a new energy security bull mkt, AND it's cheaper than it seems -

There has been much discussion about how the recent rollover in commodity prices is due to recessionary fears and demand destruction from already high prices - but there is a class of commodity that appears to be bucking the trend - titanium feedstocks, namely ilmenite

https://twitter.com/FT/status/1544704651269906435

Ilmenite is a mineral sand that is the main input for titanium dixoxide and titanium metal; Kenmare Resources Plc $KMR #KMR, the world's largest ilmenite producer (~8%-10% global mkt share) this wk reported H1 results, which noted record pricing for its products AND -

After ~15 months, I've just passed 10k followers on Twitter / #fintwit. My sincere thanks to all who follow me & who read the Value Situations newsletter. I am working through a pipeline of very interesting, idiosyncratic equity ideas & I look forward to sharing these w/ readers; You can read about my approach and newsletter offering here - valuesits.substack.com/about

Market Risk & A Buffett Special Sit🧵- Of all the coverage of the Berkshire $BRK annual meeting over the weekend, what I found most interesting was the news of $BRK 's ENORMOUS special situation trade via a merger arb play on the $MSFT / $ATVI deal –
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Is this one of the largest $ merger arb trades ever? – based on media reports, $BRK acquired an incremental ~7.6% or ~59.5m shares of $ATVI post-31 Dec-21, which at avg. price of ~$80 post deal announced = a ~$4.76bn investment -

The Russian army’s assault on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine is alarming, and has triggered a sell-off in uranium equities on ASX that is expected to flow through to Euro & US names today; however this sell-off seems misplaced considering the facts- Rather than rehash others’ analysis of the situation I thought I’d compile a short thread of why this (abhorrent) attack on Zapprizhzhia is NOT a nuclear disaster scenario, based on informed sources -

Hibernia REIT Plc $HBRN #HBRN is possibly the cheapest office REIT in Europe, at 0.66x NAV w/ a 4.7% dividend yield. HBRN owns a prime Dublin office portfolio, v. lowly geared at ~20% LTV - $HBRN's valuation seems truly anomalous when one considers the quality of it's portfolio, comprising prime city offices leased to sticky government/tech/ blue chip tenant base, which had one of the strongest rent collection rates of any REIT across Europe through COVID lockdowns

Pantheon Resources $panr $pthrf CEO Jay Cheatham gave a brief update interview yesterday with @EdAtProactive - Here are the key takeways IMO:

proactiveinvestors.co.uk/search/advance… 1. Valuation – it was highlighted that over last 12 months $panr shares have gone 2x to a mkt cap of ~$550m (at time of interview recording) since the last fundraise when $30m was placed in Nov-20 at £0.31/share -

I'm a fundamental analyst and don't subscribe to technical analysis, but sometimes a chart can tell an interesting story better than words can - I've been looking at energy commodity charts while studying $panr and some observations - #Oil is a real laggard vs. #natgas and #coal - despite being up ~55% YTD it hasn't really participated in the energy price surge to same extent as its fellow fossil fuels - here's the price lag YTD, showing oil is well behind:

Oil in the news again this morning as global energy concerns increase - oil now at a 3 year high above $80/barrel, and $panr is up ~5.5% on the London AIM market this morning - bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Great investment ideas are found by turning over lots of rocks. In my newsletter today I wrote about how creative thinking is essential to finding which rocks to look under for ideas.
How about a thread on how Dr. Michael Burry used creative thinking to find a great idea?👇👇👇 1) Burry recognised that he needed to find unorthodox ways to tilt the market to his advantage, and that usually meant finding unusual situations the world might not be fully aware of. This led him to think creatively about how he searched for new ideas.

In my latest weekly newsletter I wrote about companies and industries undergoing structural change as a source of ideas for equity investing. This was inspired by something Seth Klarman wrote about in a letter to Baupost investors back in 2014.
How about a thread –👇👇👇 1/ In his Q2 2014 investor letter, Klarman mentioned how Baupost’s analysts look out for structural changes in companies, and mentioned Baupost’s then new position in $MU which became one of Baupost’s largest longs for a time -