I have just read the ruling of Russia's Constitutional Court approving the annexation treaties of "DNR"/"LNR", Kherson & Zaporizhzhia. The justification is bonkers, will leave it to lawyers to unpack. But the ruling is interesting because it discloses details of the "treaties."
There are four rulings, they are largely similar. The following will be on "DNR": Art. 1 is crucial because it states Russia acknowledges "DNR" as a Russian federal subject since the treaties were signed, i.e. since Sept 30, i.e. before ratification by Russia's parliament next
week. In other words, Russia *already* considers Lyman in Donetsk region that was retaken on October 1 by Ukraine as its own territory and should be obliged to protect it "with all available means" as stated by Putin on Friday.
Art. 2 of the treaty states a new Russian federal subject is created. "DNR" & "LNR" will become "republics," and Kherson and Zaporizhzhia "oblasts.
Art. 3 stipulates that Russian will be the official state language. But other languages (read: Ukrainian) can be kept, studied, and developed. Comment: Same provision was in the Crimean annexation treaty, but practice showed discrimination & erasure of Ukrainian/Tatar identiy.
Art. 4 is on state border, but it still remains unclear in which borders Russia will annex the four territories (de facto control by occupation force vs. de jure claims of whole Ukrainian regions pre-2014). But Russia obliges itself to protect the integrity of annexed territories
Art. 5 stipulates "automatic naturalization" of all residents as Russian citizens with opt-out period of 1 month. This creates discriminatory double-bind: Opt out of Russian citizenship = enemy of state/foreigner in own country. Accept RU citizenship: all repressive laws apply.
Art. 6 establishes a transition period for "integration" until January 1 2026. This is long, for Crimea it was <10 months. For Kherson/Zaporizhzhia esp. military service/mobilization will be extremely crucial as all men residing there are automatically recognized as RU citizens.
Art. 7 states "parliamentary elections" for "DNR" (essentially regional elections) are to be held in September 2023. The Russian president appoints the chief executive (of the occupation administration) until (direct/indirect?) governor "elections" are held.
Art. 8 regulates the "legal" framework of "integration." Local "legislation" by occupation admininistrations is only valid if it does not contradict RU constitution (e.g. death penalty). This necessarily will lead to huge confusion at best, and in practice to arbitrary rule.
Needless to say that these treaties will be recognized by Russia only. But they have real-life, de facto implications for Ukrainians living there, that is why it is important to know the details (some of which are still unclear at this point).

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More from @fa_burkhardt

Sep 28
The early resignation of Constitutional Court judge Konstantin Aranovskii is one of the most notable elite defections since Feb 24. It has to be seen as a protest against the annexation of further Ukrainian territories that the CC is going to "approve." bbc.com/russian/featur…
Constitutional Court judges never resign early, they serve until retirement due to age restrictions. Aranovskii was the youngest CC judge appointed by Medvedev in 2010. Aranovskii is systemic: he's a law school buddy of Medvedev, and he approved the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Aranovskii was known for dissenting opinions. I recommend @khalikovayu's @RiddleRussia piece for context: Dissenting opinions were frequent in the 1990s, but under Putin the case load of the Constitutional Court increased, dissent became less frequent.
ridl.io/russia-s-censo… Image
Read 6 tweets
May 16
This is an incredibly insightful piece on why Putin started this war against Ukraine written by Roman Anin. The most important insight: It is wrong to assume there are two Putins, a pro-Western Putin before the 2007 Munich speech & an anti-Western after.
istories.media/opinions/2022/…
The core characteristic Putin shares with inner circle of "elderly Chekists" (the average age in Russia's Security Council is 65) is a "Versaille syndrome due to the collapse of the Soviet Union." The main conviction they share is not communism (capitalism enabled corruption).
Their core conviction is that the humiliation the West inflicted on Russia with the collapse of the Soviet Union needed to be revenged. And the thirst for revenge grew with rising oil prices. Putin just as these Chekists lives in a world of conspiracy theories and warped reality.
Read 8 tweets
Apr 23
The Kremlin wants to increase control over #Russia's public sector by introducing deputies in ministries, federal executive bodies & state companies directly subordinate to the Presidential Administration's domestic politics department. This neo-Soviet...
kommersant.ru/doc/5326305
practice mirrors Soviet party control over the executive. Kirienko has reputation as fan of modern corporate governance as former Rosatom chief (KPIs). But his "Leaders of Russia" competition already had the flavor of the Soviet nomenklatura. Kremlin-controlled deputies in the...
federal executive indicate the Kremlin is wary of lack of loyalty in excutive bodies subordinate to the Prime Minister. Russia has a dual executive with "siloviki" subordinate to the President and all other to the PM. The 2020 constitutional reform... ssoar.info/ssoar/handle/d…
Read 8 tweets
Mar 2
Lots of speculations Russia might introduce martial law on Friday Mar 04 as the Federation Council - the upper chamber of parliament - convenes for an emergency session. Some arguments for the sake of discussion why the rationale for introducing martial law remains unclear 👇
Martial law is introduced by presidential decree. Putin has to inform State Duma & Federation Council immediately. The Federation Council must approve martial law within 48 hours to become effective. I.e. we should see the presidential decree before or on Friday. Historically...
this would be the first martial law in post-Soviet Russia. Even in 1990s, the "state of emergency" was declared only a few times due to territorial conflicts in North Ossetia & Ingushetia. The 2 wars in Chechnya were conducted without state of emergency. The martial law states...
Read 10 tweets
Mar 2
Further evidence that Putin kept most of civilian bureaucracy in Government, Presidential Administration, state companies in the dark: The government made preparations for sanctions after recognition of DNR/LNR, but not for full-scale war against Ukraine.
t.me/wwwagentsmedia…
As one interlocutor close to the Kremlin told the journalists: Many are shocked, but officials cannot step down, this would be seen as treason. Resigning from top position now would essentially mean to go straight into prison.
This obviously doesn't mean that they do not bear full responsibility, they do. Moreover, this could be a strategy of blame-shifting to military. Nonetheless, evidence is mounting that the circle of decision-makers was even narrower than with regard to annexation of Crimea 2014.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 1
Deep dive into how #Russia's state bureaucracy sees Putin's decision to got to full-scale war with Ukraine by well-connected @faridaily_ :
tl;dr: Only few were in the loop, there's little public outrage now, but sizable despondence or even discontent.
faridaily.substack.com/p/-?utm_source…
This largely squares with sources of @kgaaze and Pertsev as summarized in their podcast, i.e. most didn't have a clue or simply didn't want to believe in war beyond the Donbas. A short summary of their latest podcast by @scharap here:
Who knew about Putin's decision according to Rustamova: MoD Shoigu, General Staff Chief Gerasimov, leadership of counterintelligence (assuming she refers to FSB, Bortnikov). Even the Kremlin's chief of staff Vaino was kept in the dark, also due to a protracted Covid sickness.
Read 8 tweets

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