#Russia's Wagner has released a new propaganda documentary "Best in Hell" produced by Prigozhin, who has been on something of a PR campaign
Far from framing Wagner as the saviors or just in their actions, they acknowledge "We know that we will go to hell"
1/13
The opening of the video notes the recent death of Alexie Nagin - Prigozhin attended the funeral
It's part of a concerted effort to elevate Wagner mercs to hero status in RUS. Increasingly they are awarded state medals - including Nagin & Prigozhin
Worth noting that the video includes the line "We have a contract with our homeland"
Despite the open secrete that is Wagner, private military contractors are illegal in Russia & this has been seen as Kremlin leverage over Prigozhin & his contractors
Now it is in the open
3/13
To that point, Prigozhin has, for the first time, admitted his role in the creation of Wagner
This is not the first time RUS has used PMCs (Slavic Corps) nor the only one currently active, but they have become the largest & the most notorious
Beyond glorifying Wagner, it also shows their mercs operating artillery, armor, & jets
Prigozhin et al are eager to elevate & exaggerate Wagner's role. They are the first to publish their successes like Popasna
This may play into their repeated attempts at taking Bakhmut
5/13
Prigozhin, who has always tried to keep a low profile & has often gone as far as to sue those who try to bring his connections with Wagner to light, has emerged from the shadows & into the spotlight
Wagner drastically increased their recruiting efforts, including targeting Russian prisoners, early in the war
Instead of denying these reports, Prigozhin allowed himself to not only be filmed but for the footage to be published
This is not the standard GRU>Wagner pipeline
7/13
Recently, Prigozhin made a point of attending Wagner Commander Alexie Nagin's funeral, as mentioned above
This was reported in Russian media & likely orchestrated for publicity. Nagin was posthumously awarded the hero of RUS Star & Prigozhin made sure he wore his own on cam
8/13
Prigozhin is not alone in attempting to use the war to raise his profile - Kadyrov has been vocal from the start. Both have shown a recent willingness to criticize the Kremlin
RUS mil bloggers have made note. The question is, what are their end goals
A withdrawal from Burkina Faso would be another blow to operation Barkhane and further limit the missions capabilities in the triborder region
If ISGS & AQIM take advantage of the situation, the new government will face significant challenges improving the security situation
A junta that gains power due to insecurity will be on shaky footing if they can’t deliver on those promises - as we saw with Dambia who took power just 8 months ago
Now there is likely concern that spill over into Niger may destabilize their government as well
In 1981, a court in Leningrad sentenced him to 12 years for his connections to organized crime. The charges included robbery, fraud, & most disturbingly, the prostitution of minors
Upon his release in '90, Prigozhin cornered the hotdog/sausage market in Leningrad (St Petersburg) - seriously
This coincided w/ Putin's exit from the KGB & ascension to the role of advisor to the Mayor Leningrad, Sobchak
Likely where Prigozhin & Putin first crossed paths
2/11
Prigozhin either raised or 'found' the funding to open the high-end Old Customs House restaurant
Soon after he converted an old boat on the Vyatka River into the exclusive New Island restaurant - where Putin hosted French Pres Jacques Chirac in '01 and G. W. Bush in '02
3/11
Pres Macron said in a pre-Bastille speech that he wants FRA to rethink its military posture in Africa. This comes as FRA's Barkhane is in the final stage of withdrawing from Mali
The situation in the Sahel is deteriorating & a wave of coups has weakened FRA's posture 1/
FRA Foreign & Defence Ministers visit Niger today & will finalize the redeployment
Niger is the logical choice - FRA is established in Niamay, Arlit, Diffa, & Agadaz (US)
It's telling that Niger's Pres Bazoum was the only one present at the G5 Sahel meeting in FRA - July '21 2/
Meanwile, the junta in Burkina Faso (G5) is struggling to keep their security promises. ACLED shows a 57% increase in fatalities vs previous 12 month avg
Over two weeks ago BK announced the evacuation of two regions in preperation of military ops 3/
Germany is in the process of changing its footprint in Mali. It has halved the troops committed to training Malian forces to 300 and increased its commitment to MINUSMA from an upper limit of 1,100 to 1,400.
Mali continues to distance is self from its traditional partners both in the region and globally. Earlier this year Mali’s junta pressured France to withdraw forces accommodated with Op Barkhane.
This coincided with the arrival of Russian contractors affiliated with Wagner.
Earlier this month, Mali announced that it would withdraw from the G5 Sahel thus limiting counterterrorism coordination in the region
Though RUS denies involvement in the deployment of Wagner, FM Lavrov meet with Malian FM Diop two weeks ago to discuss security and trade.