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ʘPSEC?
@GuinieZoo_Intel
Potentially 18+ content. Masters in Security Studies. International Relations & Analysis. Risk Professional. RT ≠ Endorsement.
giovanni dall'olio 🇮🇹🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture Steen Lyth Profile picture Parade O’ Crap™ Profile picture 3 subscribed
Feb 17, 2023 • 11 tweets • 8 min read
🧵: A new image (1) of Chinese forces carrying a mace-like club, "the Wolf Fang" has been circulating

Much of the analysis indicates that these are intended for use on the #Indian-#China border - I don't think that's the case. Images 2 & 3 are from '16 & '18 respectively
1/10 Recently, the Chinese government posted a requisition request for 2,600 additional wolf fangs. While it's entirely possible that some of these will make their way to the contested regions in Kashmir, the current evidence points to domestic application
2/10
Feb 8, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Thread on the 2018 Battle of Khasham - reportedly from a Wagnerites perspective

During the battle, a contingent of US SOF supporting the SDF at the Conoco plant came under attack by ~500 Syrian & #Wagner fighters who had crossed the de-confliction line Russian command was informed multiple times of suspected RUS nationals moving on the US position, but denied any involvement

When asked if reports that 200-300 of the Russian force was KIA, Coalition Director of Operations, US Gen. Braga, said it was “close to [the US] estimate”
Feb 7, 2023 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Extremely NSFL images of a mass grave in #Mali near the village of Korientze. Victims were found burned & with their hands bound. Reportedly perpetrated by #Russia’s #WagnerGroup & Malian Forces

This is Russia’s foreign policy. The export of human rights abuses & instability Unfortunately, #Russia enjoys broad support in #Mali’s capital, Bamako - which has seen multiple pro Russian/Wagner rallies under the current junta lead by President Assimi Goïta

RUS MFA Lavrov is currently visiting Mali, but just a year ago, they were denying ties to the junta Image
Oct 6, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Someone was messing with the RGB settings in Belograd, Russia - Residents reported strange lights in the sky. Video 2 - Belograd
Oct 5, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
🏳 Russian’s approaching Ukrainian forces under a white flag in a functioning BMP-2 to surrender

Cracks in Russian morale continue to show

Easy to imagine we will see more of this as RUS forces grow tired of fighting from the back foot & lose the will to continue Follow up:
Oct 3, 2022 • 13 tweets • 6 min read
Brief Wagner 🧵

#Russia's Wagner has released a new propaganda documentary "Best in Hell" produced by Prigozhin, who has been on something of a PR campaign

Far from framing Wagner as the saviors or just in their actions, they acknowledge "We know that we will go to hell"
1/13 The opening of the video notes the recent death of Alexie Nagin - Prigozhin attended the funeral

It's part of a concerted effort to elevate Wagner mercs to hero status in RUS. Increasingly they are awarded state medals - including Nagin & Prigozhin

2/13
Oct 2, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
#BurkinaFasoCoup anti-Franco demonstrations in front of French SOF base north of Ouagadougo

Protests outside the FRA Embassy resulted in the use of teargas

FRA will need to respond in the short term, but without action from the new gov, the long term situation may be untenable A withdrawal from Burkina Faso would be another blow to operation Barkhane and further limit the missions capabilities in the triborder region

If ISGS & AQIM take advantage of the situation, the new government will face significant challenges improving the security situation
Sep 11, 2022 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
The aftermath of Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure in Kharkiv

Ukrainian officials have confirmed at least two missile strikes on energy infrastructure in the region Second video - Russian strikes on civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv, Ukraine
Aug 15, 2022 • 11 tweets • 6 min read
🧵- Who is Yevgeny Prigozhin (Putin's Chef)?

In 1981, a court in Leningrad sentenced him to 12 years for his connections to organized crime. The charges included robbery, fraud, & most disturbingly, the prostitution of minors

He served 9 years
1/11 Upon his release in '90, Prigozhin cornered the hotdog/sausage market in Leningrad (St Petersburg) - seriously

This coincided w/ Putin's exit from the KGB & ascension to the role of advisor to the Mayor Leningrad, Sobchak

Likely where Prigozhin & Putin first crossed paths
2/11
Jul 15, 2022 • 12 tweets • 6 min read
Sahel🧵

Pres Macron said in a pre-Bastille speech that he wants FRA to rethink its military posture in Africa. This comes as FRA's Barkhane is in the final stage of withdrawing from Mali

The situation in the Sahel is deteriorating & a wave of coups has weakened FRA's posture
1/ FRA Foreign & Defence Ministers visit Niger today & will finalize the redeployment

Niger is the logical choice - FRA is established in Niamay, Arlit, Diffa, & Agadaz (US)

It's telling that Niger's Pres Bazoum was the only one present at the G5 Sahel meeting in FRA - July '21
2/
May 31, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Germany is in the process of changing its footprint in Mali. It has halved the troops committed to training Malian forces to 300 and increased its commitment to MINUSMA from an upper limit of 1,100 to 1,400. Mali continues to distance is self from its traditional partners both in the region and globally. Earlier this year Mali’s junta pressured France to withdraw forces accommodated with Op Barkhane.

This coincided with the arrival of Russian contractors affiliated with Wagner.