@CorneliusRoemer Evaluating the rate of increase of spectra worldwide with these mutations shows very clear, steady log growth, currently estimated at +105% week/week over BA.5
This phase of the pandemic is different than we've seen in the past, with the same advantageous mutations popping up all over instead of saltation (leaping) evolution. @shay_fleishon has a great, detailed thread
Instead of keeping track of a half dozen or more different variants with different names seems cumbersome for communications and evaluation. Logical grouping of similar evolutions makes sense at this point. Since it is a group, a different naming system seemed appropriate
It's hard to say at this point. I'm confident it won't be near the size of the January Omicron wave, but it could reach or surpass BA.5 wave peak. Difficult to estimate the amount of herd resistance to Pentagon in the population.
So which lineages are included in Pentagon?
BQ.1.1
BN.1
XBB
BA.2.75.2*
And a number of others with small sequence counts.
Variant soup
This particular model does not consider effects of background forces (shift to fall weather, behavioral changes, vaccine uptake etc).
Influx of cold weather pushing more people indoors could shift the upswing a bit earlier, mainly in northern states
Regardless, the arrival of #Pentagon variants will be the main driver of case increases from their significant transmission advantages
All the highlighted variants below are Pentagon, with 5 or more key escape mutations. The immune evasion even from BA.5 infection is impressive on all of them. Small numbers=more Immune evasion
An additional escape mutation is now being included in all of the Pentagon Variants. #Pentagon or #Hexagon, either name, they are the same set of variants
It's apparently been 4 months since the first sample collection date, and it still hasnt been detected in any other country that does sequencing.
When Pirola first appeared, there were sequences spotted all over the world within a week or two of first detection.
2/
BA.2.86 already was as fast as the fastest variants out there, and the L455S mutation supercharged it to JN.1. This JN.1 background is going to be a very big hill to climb for a variant that hasn't managed a foothold outside of SA yet in a number of months. Pirola in SA:
Biobot had adjusted their last two weekly estimates down a bit. My Nov. 30th model missed the peak number by 0.6% 😅. Numbers still very high but dropping.
🔸1,270,000 new infections/day
🔸1 in every 26 Americans currently infected
In my opinion, 68% XBB is misleading. TODAY it's already less than 50% and dropping like a rock. People probably don't care what the situation was 3 weeks ago.
They want to know what's happening *now* and what is going to happen.
This is very simple to explain. The BA.2.86 descendent JN.1 is quickly outcompeting and displacing the XBB sublineages, and is pushing metrics upwards in many countries.
This is why we haven't changed Pirola's name for JN.1. This quick evolution was actually predicted by our team as part of Pirola. Even the exact site it needed (S:455) was predicted by members of this team (see @SolidEvidence quote in next tweet from September)
BA.2.86 was able to compete equally with any of the fastest lineages out there, even though it was still very weak against class 1 antibodies. Marc Johnson noted the 455 mutation would give Pirola its full potential, before it even evolved.
JN.1 will be the world's first experience with the Pirola tree.
It optimized quickly, just as we were concerned about. At the very start, we weren't certain exactly which piece it was missing, but by September it became clear it was Class 1 evasion.
I can help explain with models why trajectory changes "around 50% prevalence" from a growing escape variant/group and why it's a useful *rule of thumb*.
Plot it on a log chart. 40-60% is where the elbow is. Doesn't guarentee a wave, but a change in trajectory, absolutely.
The faster the growth, the *sharper* the elbow. Slower growth? Weak elbow. Multiple variants growing at different speeds? Multiple smaller elbows. JN.1 has enough growth to push numbers up in most countries.
If you say things like "See, JN.1 was already at 20% and no wave yet!", it shows a lack of understanding of the dynamics. There will be *some* effect by 20%, but the real impact will come later towards dominance.