Elise Gould Profile picture
Oct 4 7 tweets 4 min read
Sharp drop in job openings according to the latest #JOLTS data from the #BLS.

Job openings fell 10% between July and August 2022, from 11.2 million to 10.1 million.

The largest fall in job openings were in health care and social assistance, other services, and retail trade. Image
Other topline indicators in the #JOLTS report saw little to no change in August. The hires rate was unchanged as separations ticked up slightly, due in part to a mild increase in the layoffs and discharges rate while the quits rate held steady. Image
The level of hires increased slightly from 6.2 to 6.3 million (mostly rounding) while the level of quits ticked up (4.0 to 4.1 million) and layoffs and discharges ticked up (1.4 to 1.5 million). To be clear these changes are all pretty small and display general series volatility. Image
While quits rose in accommodations and food services, all sectors—including that one—experienced greater hires than quits in August. Hiring continues to outpace quits in every major sector as workers seek and find new jobs. Image
The drop in job openings is the big story today, but remember that we've already seen the data on net job growth for August and it was strong, with 315,000 jobs added and an increase in labor force participation.
As always, these surveys exhibit a fair amount of month to month volatility, but @hshierholz puts today's data in context and shows just how much churn has come down since their peak levels of openings, hires, and quits in the pandemic labor market.

For more #JOLTS charts and analysis, see epi.org/indicators/jol….

Shout out to Katie deCourcy and @jorjorwell_ for their excellent assistance with this data release.

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More from @eliselgould

Oct 6
Jobs day tomorrow!!!
What am I hoping to see?
Some signs of life in stalled public sector employment!
epi.org/blog/what-to-w…
Over the last few months, we’ve seen signs of labor market cooling (albeit from a very strong base).

Some examples:
- the historic decline in job openings in August
More signs of cooling:
- moderating wage growth
epi.org/blog/what-to-w…
- employment losses in interest-rate sensitive jobs
Image
Read 16 tweets
Aug 2
June 2022 #JOLTS data is out. Job openings fell sharply, now four months of declines, and yet, job openings are still higher than a year ago and significantly higher than pre-pandemic. Hires and separation rates both ticked down slightly while quits and layoffs were unchanged.
Slight correction. Job openings are down each month since March's series high. That's three months in a row of declines. Please pardon the error in counting months when it's now August and the data are for June.
Mild reductions in hires, layoffs, and quits levels reported in June as the hires rate ticks down slightly and layoffs and quits rates hold steady. Layoffs continue to be low in historical terms and high levels of quits signal workers seeking (and finding) better opportunities.
Read 5 tweets
May 6
Today's #JobsReport shows a continuing healthy recovery from the pandemic recession as payroll employment came in at 428,00 jobs added. The unemployment rate held steady though the participation rate and employment-to-population ratio ticked down.
bls.gov/news.release/p…
While the share of the population with a job ticked down slightly in April, it has been trending strongly in the right direction for months. I'm optimistic this will simply be a blip on the way to a full recovery in EPOPs by the end of 2022.
While overall unemployment remained unchanged at 3.6%, today's report shows some promise for Black unemployment which has just ticked down below 6.0% for the first time in this recovery.

White unemployment remains far below Black unemployment ever.

(More volatile series noted)
Read 9 tweets
May 5
On Jobs Day tomorrow, I'll be watching employment growth, rising labor force participation, and wage growth. Wage growth has stopped rising and might actually be showing signs of slowing in the last two quarters.
epi.org/blog/what-to-w…
The large compositional effects of the pandemic on wage growth are now largely behind us. Wage growth continues to be slower than inflation, and there’s no real sign of that changing anytime soon. So far, wage growth continues to dampen price growth rather than feed it.
Given fiscal investments at the scale of the problem over the last two years and the resulting trends in payroll employment growth and labor force participation, the labor market is on track for a historically fast and full recovery by the end of 2022.
Read 10 tweets
Mar 9
The phrase "little changed" appears 12 times in the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for January 2022 (bls.gov/news.release/p…).

Job openings, hires, and separations were little changed as the quits rate decreased to 2.8% in January. Image
The hires rate remains higher than the quits rate in every major industry. This indicates that when workers quit, they are taking other jobs-likely in the same sector-not dropping out of the labor force altogether. Image
High quits are decidedly not translating into workers leaving the labor force in large numbers. In fact, according to the latest jobs data for February, we are seeing a steady return of workers back to the labor market (many of whom are getting jobs).
Read 5 tweets
Mar 4
Today's jobs report shows a strong 678,000 jobs added in February 2022 with the unemployment rate falling to 3.8% as participation rises. Two years since the pre-pandemic business cycle peak, the labor market continues its strong and speedy recovery.
bls.gov/news.release/p…
This month, the household survey and the establishment survey tell a very consistent story of a continuing strong recovery. Both show significant gains in employment and the unemployment rate is falling for the "right" reasons as more workers return to the labor market.
Private-sector employment is now only 1% away from pre-pandemic levels. This figure says it all. Unlike in the aftermath of the Great Recession, policymakers provided relief at the scale of the problem and did what was needed to spur a strong recovery this time around.
Read 9 tweets

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