Timothy Huyer Profile picture
Oct 4, 2022 12 tweets 5 min read Read on X
This is a pretty slick production, but it is not entirely accurate. A few points to note where @AndrewScheer has gone wrong. (🧵).

TL;dr: The Bank probably wasn't perfect, but Mr Scheer's characterization of what it did is largely wrong.
#cdnpoli #cdnecon

1/12
First, Mr Scheer takes issue with the Bank of Canada's claim that it did not "flood" the economy with "billions of dollars of new currency."

Except that this claim is correct. There was not a major increase in the amount of currency. The money printer was not going "brrr".

2/12
Currency outside of banks went from about $90 billion before the pandemic to about $105 billion at the end of 2020, $111 billion at the end of 2021 and $116 billion in July of this year (not seasonally adjusted). Not hundreds of billions of new cash.

3/12
What did grow, as the Bank already explains (see bankofcanada.ca/2022/06/unders…) is that settlement balances grew. Settlement balances are very special accounts that only certain financial institutions like banks have, and are used for payments systems.

4/12
Why did the Bank of Canada do this? To maintain the proper functioning of the government bond market. Who benefits from this? Mr Scheer says "primarily the government" but this is incorrect. The entire financial system, and through it the economy, benefits from this.

5/12
The yield on a Government of Canada bond will always be the lowest yield on any domestically issued marketable bond denominated in Canadian dollars of a similar maturity. This is because it will always be the lowest-risk bond of that type.

6/12
Do you want a 5-year fixed rate mortgage from BMO? The interest rate on it will be slightly higher than the yield on a 5-year bond issued by BMO, which in turn will be somewhat higher than the yield on a 5-year Government of Canada bond.

7/12
So, if the government bond market isn't functioning properly, corporate finance, mortgages and other debt markets also stop functioning properly.

This would be bad.

8/12
Mr Scheer also says "There were many economists who called out the Bank of Canada's policies."

Well, not really. Some economists started to call for QE to end sooner than it did. But there was general consensus that exceptional monetary stimulus was needed.

9/12
Almost everything closed at the start of the pandemic. The economic disruption was massive and unprecedented.

Mr Scheer notes that Bank officials were predicting that Canada was going into a deflationary crisis. Initially, Canada *did* briefly go into deflation.

10/12
We avoided a deflationary crisis. And because deflation is worse than high inflation, this is a big success. The economy bounced back from 2020 faster than it had in previous recessions. Through exceptional monetary policy interventions, a crisis was averted.

11/12
Could the Bank of Canada have done a better job? Probably. Hindsight, yadda yadda. But it is now taking action to bring inflation down, with quantiative tightening along with higher interest rates. The Bank's balance sheet is (gradually) going back to more normal levels.

12/12

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More from @tim4hire

Jun 23
This is not accurate. Oil producers sell oil on the market. The price is not subsidized and instead reflects the bargain made between willing buyers and sellers.
Oil is an international commodity and there is therefore a worldwide price for oil. However, the benchmark prices used to report those worldwide prices are based on a specific quality of oil at a specific location.
It costs money to transport oil, so if you’re not delivering light sweet crude oil to Cushing, OK, you’re going to get a different price than the WTI benchmark price. There are also variances in the price for oils of different quality. Bitumen =/= light sweet crude.
Read 7 tweets
Jun 23
(🧵) For no particular reason, I thought I would provide a "uranium enrichment for dummies" explainer; that is, what it is, why it is done and why it can pose a proliferation threat. Apologies in advance to experts; this is a layperson explainer for those with zero science.

1/
First of all is basic chemistry. Uranium is an element with 92 protons. However, like most elements, not every uranium atom has the same number of neutrons as other uranium atoms. Each version of an element (based on the number of neutrons) is called an isotope.

2/
For uranium, there are two particular isotopes: Uranium 238 (U_238) comprises about 99.3% of uranium in nature and has 146 neutrons (92 protons + 146 neutrons = 238). Uranium 235 (U_235) has three fewer neutrons and makes up about 0.7% of uranium in nature.

3/
Read 33 tweets
Jun 3
Since there is clearly confusion (such as @msSharanKaur, but not to invite calling her out) as to pairing, a quick explainer: when a MP is unable to attend an important vote, the MP can "pair" with another MP of the other side who will then agree to also not attend the vote.

1/
In the case of the opposition motion's amendment to the Reply to the Speech from the Throne, four LPC MPs were paired with (four) MPs on the opposite side of the House. These eight MPs are formally recorded as paired in Hansard for the vote.

2/
There are legitimate reasons why a MP may not be able to make it for a particular vote. This can include other important parliamentary, or (in the case of ministers) government, business. It can also include legitimate personal reasons, such as illness.

3/
Read 17 tweets
May 15
The article isn’t quite accurate. While a Budget Implementation Act is typically introduced shortly after the Budget is tabled, that Act does not provide the authority to spend the funds set out in the Budget. It does other things.

1/
Most government spending is authorized by way of appropriation Acts, which is done through the estimates process and has its own timetable for when it happens (the business of supply) in the House of Commons. Four to five appropriation Acts are usually enacted each year.

2/
The first appropriations Act is usually enacted just before the fiscal year begins (so in end of March) and covers the interim estimates. It provides funding for about three months of spending, based on what was spent the prior year.

3/
Read 16 tweets
May 14
A lot of commentary in response to my thread, much of which seems to miscomprehend the particular and unique nature of what ministers do and what the public service does. So, I will try to explain.

1/
The role of the public service is to provide the best possible advice to ministers and to implement the decisions made by the ministers. It is the public service's responsibility to ensure the quality of the advice being given, and so there are internal checks on this.

2/
Ultimately, the Deputy Minister (the senior public servant for a minister) is the one accountable for ensuring the quality of the advice. The DM will take the steps to ensure that briefings contain what ministers need to know and present that information clearly.

3/
Read 21 tweets
May 13
Gentle reminder that in our Westminster system, Cabinet ministers are not appointed because of, or expected to be, subject matter experts. The professional public service has that expertise.

1/
IMO, a good minister is one who can challenge and give direction to the public service. The minister needs to weigh the advice given and decide what is in the public interest, an inherently political task.
And, of course, a minister must be able to communicate effectively and persuasively. It is the minister who is accountable to Parliament and ultimately the public. A minister should therefore be able to explain and defend the decisions taken.

3/
Read 4 tweets

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