Thread by @BakchodFpl

Two Premiums: Do we still need them?

I will be evaluating the following options. Read on.
- Salah/KDB/Son vs 8m Midfield Options
- Kane vs Midfield Premiums
- Single Premium Draft

Thread🧵

#FPLCommunity #FPL #GW10

Firstly, lets move the obvious out of the picture. Haaland will definitely be present in the team, very likely that he will also be a permanent captain.

Now lets look at the choices for the second premium: KDB, Salah, Sone and Kane. Three midfielders.

Salah/KDB/Son vs 8m Mids:

Salah:
- He is clearly not looking the same this year. Liverpool is also struggling this season.
- He was the clear FPL king last year, 8.6 points/90 mins last year and only 6.1 points/90 mins this year
- Also his price isn't justified either at 12.8m

KDB
- He averaged 8 points/90 mins last year, currently trending at 7.8 points/90 mins for this season
- However there are many options in City. If Haaland and Cancelo are fixed, one can even go for a Foden or a Bernardo

- Bernardo/Gundogan will be rotation risks but Foden has played similar number of minutes as KDB and is 4.3m cheaper
- Also Foden had a cracker of a game against United, he is looking really well up front as well

Son:
- Averaged 7.7 points/90 mins last season, at 5.8 points/90 mins this season
- He has 19 points in one game against Leicester and 19 combined in the other 7 games - not consistent

Now lets come to the other midfield contenders (~8m):
- Maddison: Was excellent against NFO, has the second highest shots/90 mins after Rodrigo and has a great run of fixtures; Leicester have struggled but Maddison has clearly shone in the last few fixtures

- Zaha also has good numbers: 2.7 shots/90 mins, of which 1.5 shots on target (third highest), xG of 0.5/90 mins (2nd highest, same as Salah) and also has good fixtures
- Foden, I have already mentioned earlier is a very good contender

- Sterling has an xGI of 0.8/90 mins, only De Bruyne (1), Salah (0.9) and Rodrigo (0.9) are better; with a new manager and a new partnership up front with Aubameyang, he could also have a greater impact going forward

- Luiz Diaz, Bowen, Saka are also good picks - and all all are 4m+ cheaper than KDB or Salah
- Additionally, there are also good midfield options in the 6.5-7m range like Martinelli, Trossard (excellent against Liverpool), Rodrigo, ASM and Rashford

Basically do we need a second premium in the midfield given that we have equally good alternatives. Premiums are not exactly value for money now.

Also premium midfielders were preferred over Kane as then it is easier to move from one to another based on fixtures.

Like moving from KDB to Salah for GW12 (City blank) is easier than moving from Kane to Salah which will require two transfers.

Now coming to Kane:
- Kane has the second highest points at 56
- He has an xG of 0.8/90 mins (third highest after Haaland, Firmino and Wilson; Firmino and Wilson have much fewer mins)
- Joint highest xA/90 mins at 0.3 and 2 key passes/90 mins (second only to Richarlison at 2.4)

As mentioned earlier, one of the reasons Kane was not a preferred premium (currently at 19% ownership, Salah and KDB both at 30%+) was because of the ease of switching between premiums.

Also there are good options up front as well. Jesus, Mitrovic have done well.

Firmino has looked good but has played fewer mins. And Wilson is looking good and should do well with the run of fixtures and Isak's injury.

However, I think Kane should now be the preferred second premium after Haaland.

He can score against any opponent, is fixed on penalties/free kicks and has 4 hauls of 8+ points/game of the 8 games till now.

Certain fixtures, you could even take a chance on him as captain, not recommended though given the form that Haaland is in.

Lastly sharing a potential single premium draft.
- Mid of Foden, Maddison, Sterling and Diaz. You can't deny, they can get you some great weeks.

- Haaland, Mitrovic and Jesus up front. Arsenal and City have good fixtures after the GW12; GW8/9 wildcarders who would have transferred out Jesus can consider getting him back
- And we have the preferred midfield trio of Cancelo-Trippier-James at the back to complete the 3-4-3

End of thread. Data taken from @FPL_Data.

Let us know what your thoughts are on a Single Premium vs Double Premium strategy? Are you planning to move KDB/Salah out
for other midfielders or Kane?

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