/1 First the Bull market’s psychological cycle: W-1 to 5.
W-1 : disbelief (It’s just another Bear market rally, don’t buy it! Wait for better days.)
W-2 : convinced (See, I told ya the markets would crash, you can’t trust those market makers. Bunch of “peeeep”.)
W-3 : Ignoring (it will soon pullback again, the fundamentals ain’t right just yet imho. I will wait for a better entry)
W-4: confirmation (see here’s the pullback, told ya. Now I’ll buy some! Patience pays off. Man, I am good. I can do this and become a pro, a full time trader.)
W-5: euphoria (look at me, I am a killer baby! I bought the dip. To the moon. This is so easy, I’ll be rich in no time! Don’t listen to the pros’ warnings. They just want to scare you out of your position so they can buy more. Bunch of scammers.)
/2 And now for the Bear market cycle after W-5 in the Bull market topped: W-a, -b, and -c.
W-a : disbelief (oh it’s just a pullback. I’ll hold through it or I’ll buy some more. It’s bargain hunting season after all.)
W-b: convinced (here we goooo! Glad I bought some more, who said you should never average down!?! Clowns.)
W-c : ignoring (I believe in it. Fundamentals are good, buy-n-hold wins in the end, they say), followed by despondency (what a POS, you can’t win, this game is rigged. Better sell now and get back in when things have “stabilized”. The tape is bad, news is bad, glad I am out).
/3 and by now it is back to the Bull market cycle… Rinse Lather Repeat… Ad infinitum… So, which state are you currently in? Let me know in a comment below 👇
/4 Don’t believe me?! Check out a real-life example video:
/1 For those of you unfamiliar with some of my work, I try to assign cycles to what is unfolding in the world socially and economically. Cycles help us understand where we are in the grand scheme and better come to grips with why things are happening and what will likely be next.
/2 One type of time cycle is the generational cycle. Humans procreate on average around the age of 30 +/- 5 years. That is the span of a generation before the next one starts. Regarding Russia and in particular its communist system we know:
/3
1917: Russian Revolution
'47: Cold War starts
~30 years (Awakening)
'62: Cuban Missile Crisis (often regarded as the height of the Cold War)
~25 years (High)
'89-91: Fall of Berlin Wall leading to the dissolution of the USSR and end of the Cold War.
~29 years (Unravelling )