Thread by @BakchodFpl

GW12 Planning Thread (City-Arsenal blank):

- Who do we keep on the bench?
- How do we optimize it without compromising GW12 performance?
- Also who do we get in for the City-Arsenal players that we are moving out?

Read on for these answers and more🧵

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I will be evaluating basis the following factors:
- Current ownership of City-Arsenal players
- GW10-12 targets
- GW13-16 targets
- GW12 Captain Options
- City/Arsenal Players - Who to bench/Transfer Out
- Who to Transfer In for City/Arsenal Players
- Optimum GW12 bench combos

TL;DR

- Bench: Haaland, Jesus, Martinelli (if no Jesus)
- Transfer out: KDB, Cancelo, Saliba, Other City-Arsenal Assets
- Get in: Chelsea Assets (GW10-12), Salah/TAA (GW12-13)

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Most of us have 2-3 City players and 1-2 Arsenal players in our sides.

So that is 3-5 players that we have to plan for GW12 without compromising on the team too much for that particular GW.

Ideally we should have two players (City-Arsenal
combined) on the bench and one backup player in case someone gets injured.

Three players (City-Arsenal combined) can also be kept in case hits are required to move the players out.

We will start by looking at the fixtures pre/post GW12, players to target in these GWs and then share our recommended actions for City-Arsenal players along with the optimum bench combinations.

Current ownership of City-Arsenal players:
- Haaland (82.9%)
- Jesus (69.4%)
- Cancelo (51.7%)
- Martinelli (46.6%)
- KDB (34.6%)
- Saliba (26.5%)
- Ederson, Bernardo, Foden, Dias (10-15%)
- Odegaard, Zinchenko, Saka, Gabriel, Ramsdale (10-15%)

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GW10-12 Fixtures to target:

Fixtures in GW10-12 for City and Arsenal:
- City: SOU (H), LIV (A), Blank
- Arsenal: LIV (H), LEE (A), Blank

Teams with easy fixtures from GW10-12:

- Chelsea: WOL (H), AVL (A), BRE (A)
- Leicester: BOU (A), CRY (H), LEE (H)
- Crystal Palace: LEE (H), LEI ( A), WOL (H)

GW13-16 fixtures to target:

Teams with Easy fixtures in GW13-16:
- Arsenal: SOU (A), NFO (H), CHE (A), WOL (A)
- City: BHA (H), LEI (A), FUL (H), BRE (H)
- Liverpool: NFO (A), LEE (H), Tot (A), SOU (H)
- Everton: CRY (H), FUL (A), LEI (H), BOU (A)
- Also BRE, CRY and MUN

Chelsea players can be brought in from GW10-12 (easier fixtures) in place of the City/Arsenal players that you are moving out (Foden for Sterling or Jesus for Auba).

They can then be moved out again as they have difficult fixtures from GW13. Good time to punt on Chelsea assets.

Defenses to target:
- Forest have the the worst xGA/game (1.96) and shots conceded/game (17)
- Leicester have the worst GA/game (2.75), NFO is second (2.63) and Bournemouth are third (2.38)

- Most double digit FPL hauls conceded are against these three teams as well (LEI - 10, BOU and NFO - 9)
- LEI, BOU and NFO clearly the teams to target

(Shoutout to @4lex_mcfc for an excellent thread on which defenses to target from GW10-16)

Teams with difficult fixtures in GW13-16:

- Chelsea: MUN (H), BHA (A), ARS (H), NEW (A)
- Aston Villa: BRE (H), NEW (A), MUN (H), BHA (A)
- Brighton (City, Chelsea), Fulham (City, United), Newcastle (Spurs, Chelsea), Spurs (Newcastle, Liverpool) also have tricky fixtures

GW12 Captain Options:
- Salah vs WHU (H) - Most obvious/safe pick
- Trossard vs NFO (H)
- Maddison vs LEE (H)
- Mitrovic vs AVL (H)
- Chelsea play Brentford, Auba/Sterling can also be considered
- United vs Spurs at Old Trafford, so Kane/Son can be avoided

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City/Arsenal Players - Who to bench/Transfer Out and Possible Replacements:

Haaland - Bench. Easy decision. Doesn't make sense with the pricing (selling price: 11.8m, Current: 12.2m).

Only move would have been to get Kane in for a week and captain him but Spurs play United so wouldn't be a great pick. Salah preferred captain for GW12.

Jesus - Bench. In case you have both Jesus and Martinelli, bench Jesus and transfer out Martinelli.

Jesus second only to Haaland for shots, npxG and xGI. Kane is a close third but is 3.4m more expensive.

Also while Arsenal have Liverpool next, they have Leeds in GW11 and then easy fixtures (except Chelsea) till GW16.

Facing NFO in GW14, GW8/9 Wildcarders who have moved out Jesus will also be considering getting him back for GW13-16.

Cancelo - Can be moved after GW10. City play Liverpool in GW11 (clean sheet difficult) followed by the blank.

TAA is a good replacement, scored a free kick in the Champions League game against Rangers and should get some confidence back.

Liverpool also kept a clean sheet with the change in formation (4-2-3-1 vs Rangers).

Klopp has said he could stick to the same formation so could get more clean sheets as well.

Also Liverpool play Arsenal and City next and then have an easier run of fixtures from GW12-16. Can continue with Cancelo till GW12 before getting in TAA.

Alternatively can also get a cheaper defender in the 5m range and the 2m saved can be used to upgrade midfielders to a 7-8m midfielder like Zaha, Maddison or Diaz

Martinelli - Bench if you don't have Jesus. Easy run of fixtures from GW13 and while you figure out how to get back Jesus, Martinelli should have at least some contribution if Arsenal does well.

Martinelli second to Jesus for shots, shots on target, xG, xGI among Arsenal players and best for xA, key passes.

Also not many good options in the ~6.5m range - Trossard, Rashford are there but they have difficult fixtures after GW12 and are not as consistent.

Trossard's performance under the new manager can still be tracked over the next 2 GWs and he can come in for Martinelli for GW12 when Brighton face NFO.

He is a good option for Captain as well in GW12.

KDB - Transfer out after Liv-City game and get Salah in. Salah is the best choice for captain in GW12 vs WHU and Liverpool then play NFO in GW13, Salah is a good pick for that game as well.

Also Foden is a decent KDB replacement, can get him instead of KDB from GW13.

Ederson/Ramsdale - Bench. If Ward is your substitute keeper, you can play him in GW12 vs Leeds.

Ward had a good game last weekend and Rodgers has kept his trust in him as well.

In case there is a risk of your substitute keeper not playing or is playing a strong team, you can consider moving to Guaita, Raya, Pickford or Allison for GW13-16 (easier fixtures)

Bernardo, Foden, Odegaard, Saka - Transfer out. Get Maddison, Zaha, Sterling in for GW10-12

Saliba, Zinchenko, Diaz, Gabriel, Walker (injured) - Transfer out. Get Trippier, James in if you don't have them. Chilwell, Guehi, Zouma, Veltman also good short term bets for GW10-12

Recommended bench combos for GW12:
Priority (top to bottom, excluding GKs)
- Haaland, Jesus
- Haaland, Martinelli
- Haaland, Cancelo (in case of no Arsenal assets)
- Haaland, Martinelli, Foden/Cancelo

Three players should be avoided on the bench as that could result in a lot of value on the bench and you will also have to play all you current bench players like Andreas, Neco (not a good fixture in GW12, BHA),
Greenwood or Dalot (Spurs in GW12)

Also Arsenal plays SOU (A) and City has BHA (H) in GW13 (tricky fixtures) before easier fixtures against NFO (H) and LEI (A) respectively.

So that is two gameweeks or two transfers to get back the assets before these key fixtures.

At the same time, Liverpool play NFO in GW13 itself so Liverpool assets can help out in balancing the team.

Three game weeks till GW12 so if you have 5 players (City-Arsenal combined), 3 can be moved out to have 2 on bench with backup & then 2 can be brought back in by GW14.

End of Thread. Please like/share if this was helpful. All feedback is welcome as well❤️

Also if you need any help in planning for GW12, drop your teams below and we can share our suggestions.

Please like/retweet the first tweet if this was helpful. Thank you.

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