Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Oct 7 7 tweets 4 min read
#ExtremeWeather Potential Cyclone #PC13L Update Thread.

@NHC_Atlantic is dispatching a second reconnaissance mission to investigate the disturbance off the coast of Venezeula as the storm approaches open water after spending several hours partially over land.
@NHC_Atlantic A comprehensive discussion has now been released by @NHC_Atlantic […] providing an insight into what the experts expecting from this tropical tropical wave, which has been given a rare "Near 100%" probability of becoming #HurricaneJulia.
The long range Hurricane Hunter mission will determine amid all the noisy convection whether the storm has a clear circulation - which it needs to progress from being a wave to become a disturbance or a Tropical Storm - at which point it will get a name.
The passage clipped ^^ above is important, as there is a big range of possible intensity scenarios over the coming 72 hours over very warm water with generally positive conditions for intensification.

And if the storm intensifies significantly, this could change its impacts.
BEWARE "Rainfall, flash flooding, and mudslides."

This is the most important warning for those in #HurricaneJulia's path in Nicaragua, Honduras and Mexico. This is a huge storm, one embedded in an immense field of convective storms and water vapour.
Finally we have a more detailed and updated intensity forecast, with an initial estimate of a mid Cat 1 landfall. However this is the most significant area of uncertainty about the future development of this extraordinary storm.

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More from @althecat

Oct 8
#TSJulia's wind and convection area now covers 2.4 million km, draging moisture off the Pacific Ocean over Panama & Costa Rica. Her outer rain bands extend from Colombia to Honduras - and she is not yet a hurricane.
While #TSJulia or #HurricaneJulia is not expected to last much longer, the #ExtremeWeather event associated with the storm is forecast to bring extreme/catastrophic weather across the entire region over the coming fortnight.

Accumulating rainfall forecast - 16 days. GFS Model
Exactly what will happen is far from clear as the forecasts keep changing but the combination of very high atmospheric water, and a massive arctic blast coming south (even pushing a small hurricane backwards down Mexico's Pacific Coast as you see here is not good.
Read 8 tweets
Oct 8
#HurricaneJulia #TSJulia #CentralAmerica #ExtremeWeather.

A quick update on the wider #HurricaneJulia long term rainfall prognosis for Central America. Which unfortunately is deteriorating significantly in the latest runs.

Left: 180 Hours
Right:384 Hours ImageImage
The first week (Hurricane Julia) is bad, but the rains continue for another full week till the end of the forecast period. The next few tweets show how the model picture has evolved.
The full runs are not yet available but we have the first 120 hours - till 13th Oct.

Here's the IWVT (Atmospheric Water Transport/Energy) view - which shows #TSJulia crossing into the Pacific and taking a portion of the saturated atmosphere with her north west up the coast.
Read 5 tweets
Oct 8
#ClimateChangeNOW #ExtremeWeather #HurricaneJulia update thread 8-10-22 (late evening CEST)
The possibility Julia may never become a hurricane is clearly on the cards. Her continued divergence (southwards) from the offical track also has signifcant implications r.e. impact.
This is illustrated in the latest GFS model run. The full 16 day run is a little implausible but this 165 hours is at least credible.

As you can see here the remnants of Julia cross the isthmus (as discussed in the last update) and then moves deeper into the Pacific.
The first image here is the rain solution for that first 165 hours.

The second is a rainfall solution through to 300 hours. Whilst still alarming to say the least, it is different from earlier runs wrt more rain over the southern coasts than the northern coasts. ImageImage
Read 18 tweets
Oct 8
#ClimateChangeNOW #ExtremeWeather #HurricaneJulia update thread 8-10-22

A lot has changed in the last 12 hours - not so much in the short term but in the longer term model track predictions - and therefore in the outcomes which can be expected for the wider region.
Specifically fromthe latest GFS run (and its predecessors) the degree of uncertainty with respect to impacts is increasing. At present Julia is not officially a hurricane and the extent of structure in the 300km wide central area of convection is not known.

Latest GFS Run.
The GFS data has changed the official forecast in line with what we see inthe last model and instead of taking a more northerly path through central America the storm is now expected to cross the Isthmus into the Pacific relatively swiftly. Image
Read 23 tweets
Oct 7
I get that the TPLF do not want to attend peace AU talks, ever, anywhere.

But I am amazed at the lengths they seem to be prepared to go to in order make sure they do not discuss peace so they can continue a completely pointless war that is killing 1000s of their children. Image
Enlisting the @WHO, @JosepBorrellF, a majority of the European Parliament and the UNHRC and the former President of Kenya in this project is a master work, especially whilst keeping them all in the dark about the master plan.
But to what end?

Do the TPLF love war so much that they seek to never stop? Even if it means living in caves and hiding from drones and seeing their families and friends die?

It really is a tragedy. The peace talks ought to be on tomorrow in South Africa.
Read 6 tweets
Oct 7
This is a controversial text. Trans:

"We transgressed against people belittling them.
Their fates our fate, please walk in their shoes.

I think tplf is thinking of the London negotiations and saying this to Azmari. As they left them there, they will be left there."
I gather the reference to London negotiations is to those held in 1991 following the fall of Mengistu.
Who or what is Azmari?
Read 4 tweets

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