We're going to be moving the Ryan/Vance matchup in #OHSen to Leans Republican soon at @SplitTicket_. I want to be clear: we think Vance is a clear and obvious favorite to win here. It's just that we think Lean R is a better reflection of the state of play than Likely R is.
@SplitTicket_ Polls in Ohio are not good. This is not a secret. Everybody knows this. But if this was *any normal state*, we would have had the race at tossup. Ryan continues to pull leads in public polling well into late September, even when DeWine leads by 20+. That's not a Likely R race IMO
@SplitTicket_ The fact that it's Ohio, where polling misses and fundamentals strongly indicate a Republican win, mean that it's at Lean R (and a very strong Lean R, at that). But Vance is likely to underrun Trump by a decent bit if things continue at this rate.
Putting my thoughts here because I know that when we do eventually write the article for it, it'll (1) be overshadowed by whatever other discourse is out that day and (2) nobody will look at the rationale for the change before saying we think Ryan's favored (we clearly don't).
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