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Intelschizo Profile picture
@Schizointel
Oct 8, 2022 • 13 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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Thread on #KerchBridge damages and observations Image
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Multiple Sections of the road collasped Image
More road collapses Image
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Additional 2x sections of road collapses and potential structural damage to the rail section of the bridge Image
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Total fuel between all cars is between 1,207,500-1,725,500 gallons of fuel.

At least 2x-5x cars involved in the fire for a total of 69,000-172,500 gallons of fuel.

I used a Standard US DOT-111 Tank car which has a maximum capacity of 34,500 gallons Image
Better Composition of the Train. @OSINTEng @sentdefender @Osinttechnical @RALee85 @GuinieZoo_Intel @IntelDoge Better fuel estimates are the following 655,500-800,000 gallons of fuel with 10x covered hoppers and potentially 2x Gondolas Image
@The_IntelHub
Section of road on the arch damaged Image
Image
Russian State Media is now beginning the narrative that a truck bomb (VBIED) exploded on the Crimean Bridge.

I would expect this narrative to possibly change, as we have seen Russia’s story lines in the past.

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More from @Schizointel

Intelschizo Profile picture
Aug 16
Kursk Offensive D+11
Update August 16th 2024

Per @MalcontentmentT

Total area: 1,379 sq km
Breach: 85.6 km
Depth: up to 36 km
Change since last update: +116 sq km
🟨Ukraine control: 989 sq km
🟦Russian claimed/gray area: 390 sq km

My additions to the map
Red Lines: 🇷🇺 Defensive lines
Black Line and Icons: Railroads and rail bridges
Purple Icons: Road Bridges
Yellow Light Icon: Electrical substations and Rail Traction stations
2 Nuclear Icons: KNPP and Belgorod-22

#KurskImage
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Read 7 tweets
Intelschizo Profile picture
Aug 15
Based on reporting from Belarusian Railroad Workers Community and Moscow Commuter Trains Overhead this is a rail map of Russia that I'm comfortable with putting out at this time of impacted rail lines over the last few days.

Rail traffic from Belarus into Russia to Smolensk is closed.

Rail traffic from Kursk to Lgov is closed

Rail traffic from Kursk to Oryol is closed.

Rail Traffic from Belgorod to Kursk is impacted and likely will be announced closed.

Rail traffic from Smolensk to Oryol is likely impacted

Rail traffic from Lgov to Bryansk unknown status

Rail traffic from Lgov to Oryol is open.

Rail traffic from Belarus to Bryansk unknown status.

So Evacuation of Civilians just got way more difficult they're now going to have to bus everyone towards Lgov and train will pick them up and go to Oryol Right now it seems everything north of Oryol is fine.

🟥: Closed
🟨: Impacted
🟩: Open
⬜: Unknown Status

#RussianRail
#Kurskregion
#BelgorodRegion
#Trains
#UkraineWar
#Russia

@Prune602Image
Read 7 tweets
Intelschizo Profile picture
Aug 14
BREAKING: Russian Railroads are officially collapsing in real time from the Belarus Railroad Workers Community.

Telegram has sent from the central office of Russian Railways (RZD) to the Belarusian Railways (BCh) about the need to stop sending freight trains from all stations of the Belarusian Railways to stations of the Oryol-Kursk branch of the Moscow Railway (MRZhD RR) effective immediately from 12.08.2024 no end date given.

It is noteworthy that the received telegram with notification of the impossibility of receiving trains from the Belarusian Railways in the specified direction is no longer limited in validity, but has the mark "until cancellation" . This circumstance terminates railway communication from Belarus to stations in the specified region of Russia for an unknown (unlimited) period.

It should be noted that such a decision was made by Russian Railways against the backdrop of military events (the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) and the establishment of their control on Russian territories) occurring in the Kursk region, as well as statements by the Russian authorities about the “successes” achieved.

In addition to the events described above, there is a large accumulation of "abandoned" trains * (code 12 - no locomotive) at stations in the Smolensk region of the Moscow Railway. This circumstance also affects the rhythm of sending freight trains from the Belarusian Railway in the direction of the Moscow Railway and leads to disruption of the schedule.

Yesterday, 13.08.2024, corresponding telephone calls with verbal requests to find ways not to send trains in the direction of the Smolensk region (via the interstate junction point (IGCP) Osinovka (BZhD) - Krasnoe (RZhD)) were received directly from the Moscow Railway traffic control apparatus to the management of the Belarusian Railway.

#trains
#Kursk
#Belgorod
#Bryansk
#RussiaIsCollapsing
#RussianRail
#Russia
#Belarus
#Ukraine
#UkraineWar
For its part, Russian Railways currently explains the situation with the filling of stations in the Smolensk region with “abandoned” trains by the “lack of traction” (the required number of locomotives (mainline diesel locomotives and electric locomotives), as well as locomotive crews to carry out the removal of trains).

The tense situation with the availability of the required number of locomotives and locomotive crews on Russian Railways has been going on for quite a long time, and has been sensitive since 2023. The reason is poor quality repairs, lack of spare parts, and people's lack of interest in low-paid work. However, these facts are only an indirectly related issue .

Our sources report that the lack of traction in the situation described is caused by the Russian authorities conducting a large-scale operational transfer of troops in the direction of the Kursk region and the redeployment of a significant part of the Moscow Railway's fleet of freight locomotives to carry out military transportation from the central part of Russia .

At the same time, some sources report that the concentration of armed forces is being carried out from virtually all regions, even from fairly remote ones or those with complicated logistics .

Obviously, such movements cannot be accomplished without the use of the railway.

It is not yet clear what role the Belarusian Railways is currently assigned in this regard.

We continue to monitor the situation.

Side note:
An "abandoned" train is a conventional term that generally refers to a train that has been left without a locomotive on a station side track for more than 24 hours.
belzhd.info/news/operativn…
Read 8 tweets
Intelschizo Profile picture
Aug 14
Ukraine's Kursk 2024 operation has effectively degraded Russian near front GLOC

Russian Logistics:

The Russian counter-attack will have 2 main logistical depots to support the eventual counter attack being Kursk and Belgorod with RZD and ZHV bringing supplies in by rail. Should the Russians deem Kursk and Belgorod no longer safe then secondary hubs are Oryol, Voronezh, and Stary Oskol can be used.

Once supplies come in by rail they will be offloaded and sent to likely Russian staging points (red stars) at Rylsk, Lgov, Chermoshnoi, Selikhovy Dvory, Oboyan, and Rakitnoe by the MTO Brigades by truck. The most optimal routes for the MTO brigades to transport material from the rail yards to Russian troops within 45 miles are highlighted in green. Secondary routes for the MTO to take that will be able to bring a third less supplies a day are highlighted as thick yellow line. Third route option and least preferred that will be able to bring in 2/3 less supplies per day is highlighted in dark orange.

#Kurskregion
#KurskOperation
#KurskBattle
#Kurska
#Belgorod
#BelgorodRegion
#BelgorodBattle
#BelgorodOperation
#Russia
#UkraineWar
#UkraineImage
The MTO Brigades are Russia's logistical support to bring supplies from rail hubs to the front ground forces. As highlighted in many papers over the years for a century and a half the Russian army is a railway army and in order to sustain deep operations, and offensive operations it relys of rail with last mile done by truck and is effectively limited to stay preferably within 45 mi of a rail line so that the MTO brigades can most effectively Ferry supplies to the front. Beyond that there is reduced capacity to move supplies. The glaring issue with the eventual counter attack in Kursk in is that they will be operating at around 80 miles or more from a rail line at the current Ukrainian FLOT which logistically speaking for Russia is not ideal in staging and conducting a counter offensive because their supply lines will be stretched thin.

The second problem that Russia is going to run into while organizing and the response to counter the Ukrainians is deciding where to pull MTO assets in Ukraine from and relocate to Kursk leaving units in Ukraine short on logistical resupply assets making the The daily replenishment needed to sustain combat operations more difficult than it already is for the Russians that have had issues with properly supplying units across the front from strategic rail heads.

A MTO Brigades is committed to supporting 1 Combined Arms Army (CAA). Russia has a total of 11 of these MTO Brigades.

Each MTO Brigade fields
2 truck battalions, each battalion comprising
408 transport vehicles composed of
-148 general freight vehicles
-260 specialized vehicles
-48 trailers.

Each Battalion can reportedly haul 1,870 tons of cargo (1190 tons of dry cargo, 680 tons of liquid).

MTO Brigade serves a CAA
MTO Battalion serves a Division
MTO Companies serves Regiments and Brigades
If you want some more reading best if done on PC most of f these links are PDFs.

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8. forbes.com/sites/davidaxe…
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t.co/zvsWjm5cWX
t.co/yAtejcXTsr
t.co/sd5o5RKMYN
t.co/4VCuMaYELK
Read 13 tweets
Intelschizo Profile picture
Aug 12
Well it looks like we'll have to address some of David's false claims about trains because Sudzha is part of the Russian primary rail network. This station has been in operation the entire length of the war. There was one partisan attack on one of the bridges south of the town in May of 2022. They sent the Russian Railways and the zhv and had a brand new bridge installed within 48 hours to keep uninterrupted freight rail flowing down and this train station was only closed for the first time in this war last Friday.

We will have to go over how Russia has had almost complete freedom of movement for it. Conducting rail operations this entire War. The number of times locomotive have been attacked by Ukraine. I can count on one hand. The number of times Russian zhv has been attacked. I can count on one hand. The amount of times critical rail infrastructure has been attacked. I can count on two hands and this idea that Russia won't be using a train station like Sudzha which is literally operated the entire War because it's in range of Ukrainian musicians. Guess what Tsar train is 5 mi from the line of contact and trains go down at every single day unharassed not a single attack and the Surovikin line yeah Russia's main GLOC Maine is a single rail line that's in the range the entire length and the amount of times that's been attacked I can count on one hand. The new rail line from Mariupiol 2 attacks One of which was on the granite quarry and the other completely missed the rail bridge no follow-on.Image
Perhaps go read up on the ZHV and the MTO brigades. Or really look at any of Russia's military logistical doctrine that really hasn't had drastic change since the Cold War in those exercises that they did right before invading, Ukraine and Belarus that was with the MTO brigades to try and iron out issues.
But sure David, the Russians hopped in their t62 and drove the tank all the way up over 600 km on the interstate. Instead of putting it I don't know on a train and having it transferred via the MTO Brigade whose literal job is to be the logistical support for a CAA.
Also it's literally faster to transport by train than to drive. Especially when you talk about moving an entire unit's worth of equipment. Whether it's a regiment, a battalion, a brigade or division, it's going to get there far faster by rail than by truck or by road.
Read 4 tweets
Intelschizo Profile picture
Aug 12
Ukrainian Intelligence hit a gold mine on Russian Logistics in near real time!

The capture of Sudzha may not seem grand on a map but the capture of the railway station may allow Ukrainian Intelligence direct access into Russian Railway Computer Systems, Schedules, Train Consists, and internal Russian Railway Communications from Dispatch to Defect Detectors.

Sudzha station besides being part of the Lgov-Belgorod Line that I've highlighted previously is part of the Moscow Railway division, which must be causing panic in Russian High Command knowing that the enemy has real time capability to view your logistical movements.

#Train
#Trains
#Locomotive
#RussianRail
#Russia
#Kurskregion
#Kursk
#KurskOperation
#Belgorod
#Belgorodregion
#BelgorodOperationImage
Image
Nice part is you can't really shut this thing off. A lot of those defect detectors and the signal sensors are automated. The only way you're shutting it off is if you go out there and rip the whole system apart. Which they're not going to do because that's insanely expensive and creates insane risk and safety issues for both passenger and freight rail and would leave trains out on the track completely blind as to what's in front of them so you can't really shut it off
Also, a lot of those systems transmit via radio automatically. They are tripped when a train goes by. So even if they lost access to the computer, they would now have the frequencies needed to listen in on those sensors and detectors. Which again you physically can't turn off unless you go out there and rip them apart which they're not going to do. The systems are designed so that the train out in the middle of nowhere has an ability to know if they are safe and to know what's in front of them and what's behind them. Can't shut it off
Read 13 tweets

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