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Oct 8, 2022 13 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Thread on #KerchBridge damages and observations Image
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Multiple Sections of the road collasped Image
More road collapses Image
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Additional 2x sections of road collapses and potential structural damage to the rail section of the bridge Image
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Total fuel between all cars is between 1,207,500-1,725,500 gallons of fuel.

At least 2x-5x cars involved in the fire for a total of 69,000-172,500 gallons of fuel.

I used a Standard US DOT-111 Tank car which has a maximum capacity of 34,500 gallons Image
Better Composition of the Train. @OSINTEng @sentdefender @Osinttechnical @RALee85 @GuinieZoo_Intel @IntelDoge Better fuel estimates are the following 655,500-800,000 gallons of fuel with 10x covered hoppers and potentially 2x Gondolas Image
Section of road on the arch damaged Image
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Russian State Media is now beginning the narrative that a truck bomb (VBIED) exploded on the Crimean Bridge.

I would expect this narrative to possibly change, as we have seen Russia’s story lines in the past.

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More from @Schizointel

Jun 7
This is the first time Ukraine targeted a Russian military freight train carrying equipment. This one strike took out 13 tanks and 100 vehicles. It is beautiful.

This single strike took out the equipment for 1 Tank Company and 3 Motor Rifle Battalions.

Tally of lost Russian assets from attacks on Russian Military Fuel And freight trains

13x Tanks
100x Vehicles
1,430,000~ Gallons of fuel.
The attack likely on the Donetsk-Tokmak Line likely west of Volnovakha we will have to wait and see whatever footage gets released. Image
Southern Forces of Ukraine posted Russian equipment losses from this train attack which includes the following.

1x Railway Locomotive
13x Tanks
7x Artillery systems
103x units of automotive and armored equipment
10x Tank Cars (between 158,000-172,000 gallons of fuel)
Read 5 tweets
Jun 1
Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has initiated what they are calling Operation Pavutyna

Goal of this operation: Degrading Russia’s long-range strike capabilities.

Olenya and Belaya airfields specifically targeted with swarms of FPV drones remotely launched from vehicles positioned near the airfields. These mobile platforms were reportedly parked within proximity of the targets, enabling direct line-of-sight control for precise navigation and terminal attack.

Early claims to have damaged or destroyed over 40 aircraft, including Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 bombers, as well as at least one A-50

That's over a billion dollars worth of military hardware.

So far the videos show at least
3x TU-95 and 1x AN-12 ablaze.
Third Airbase at Ryazan now under attack from same fov drone swarm.

Read 11 tweets
May 11
Today's book recommendation
Solly Zuckerman's autobiography From Apes to Warlords where he talked about his service in WW2 as the Scientific Director of the British Bombing Survey Unit (BBSU) the creator of the Transportation Plan and doing Battle Damage Assessment of Allied bombing of Pantelleria 🇮🇹 during Operation Corkscrew.

Zuckerman's Transportation Plan had a simple objective cripple the German military's mobility by targeting critical components of the railway infrastructure.

The Transportation Plan was part of the shaping operations for D-Day which concentrated allied bombings of rail lines, marshalling yards, and locomotive repair facilities. The rationale was that by destroying these key elements, the German forces would be forced to rely more heavily on road transport, which was less efficient and more vulnerable to Allied attacks. This strategy was informed by his observations in Italy, where targeting rail infrastructure had significantly disrupted enemy logistics.Image
The transportation plan was enacted and as France was liberated along with Belgium treasure troves of German documents were captured describing the following with German logistics as a result of allied bombings during the transportation plan there was a overall 50% reduction in all rail traffic in the beginning of June 1944 increasing to 75% by July 30th 1944. In Northern France, rail traffic had decreased by 85% during the month of July.

To effectively disrupt the enemy’s movements, paralyze the railway system, the most economical means of transportation for any modern army. In particular, targeting locomotive hangars and repair shops to deprive the entire rail network which will force an enemy to use the road system. This results in a decisive waste of time equipment and fuel, along with exposing itself to air attacks
The strategic effect of destroying enemy railway communications is best achieved by attacks on large railway centres, containing large concentrations of locomotives and rolling stock. Secondary targets [railways, warehouses, repair sheds] are highly concentrated targets in these railway centres that are also susceptible to shelling. The high vulnerability of rolling stock to concentrated bombardment is partly explained by the indirect effects of bombs [fire spread, which greatly increase the direct effects...
Read 6 tweets
May 2
Overnight the vessel passenger vessel conscience was attacked by 2x OWA-UAV's 14 Nautical miles Northeast of Malta as part of a Freedom Flotilla to deliver supplies to Gaza from Tunisia. No injuries among passengers or crew. Fires were extinguished after 4 hours. Many online have been quick to blame this attack on Israel.

Israel does not possess any OWA-UAV's capable of reaching the ship from Israel.
Israel also does not have any UAVs capable of aerial refueling.
Israel also does not have any uavs capable of acting as a mothership to launch other drones.

With Israel physically lacking the capability to lob a drone 2000 km away. It is unlikely this drone attack was carried out by Israel.

The entities that could have conducted the attack are in Libya.Image
Image
Libya does have OWA-UAV's and strike drones capable of carrying small bombs or rockets around 10kg warheads easily capable of reaching the vessel.
To clarify a bit more of the incident, there were 16 people on board at the time 12 crew and 4 passengers they were supposed to dock in Malta to pick up additional passengers to include
Greta Thunberg and retired US Army Colonel Mary Ann Wright
Read 8 tweets
Apr 15
This time 113 years ago Titanic has struck the iceberg and initial damage assessment concluded mail hold and forward compartments are found flooding rapidly. In the mailroom, clerks are trying to save letters and parcels. 6 of the watertight compartments compromised the ship was designed to survive no more than 4 being compromised.

Thomas Andrews one of Titanic's designers confirms to Captain Smith that Titanic can stay afloat no more than 1.5-2 hours.
Transmissions of a doomed ship

CQD DE MGY
CQD DE MGY
CQD DE MGY
CQD DE MGY
CQD DE MGY
CQD DE MGY
Position 41.44 N 50.24 W
Cape Race, Cape Cod, Along with other ships being Frankfurt, La Provence, Mount Temple, Ypiranga receive distress signals from Titanic Image
Read 43 tweets
Apr 10
So let's do a quick rundown of Patriots

A Patriot Battery is composed of

6-8x Launchers
1x Radar Set
1x Engagement Control Station
1x Electric Power Plant
1x Antenna Mast Group

Each launcher carries up to 4 PAC-2 missiles or 16 PAC-3 missiles

4-6x Batteries makes a Patriot Battalion

24-48x Launchers
4x Radar Set
4x Engagement Control Station
4x Electric Power Plant
4x Antenna Mast Group

Israel still has an additional 7x Patriot Batteries in storage

42-56x Launchers
7x Radar Set
7x Engagement Control Station
7x Electric Power Plant
7x Antenna Mast Group

This isn't including the 2 THAAD Batteries nor the 17 batteries of phase 3 Hawk that are in storage nor the 2 Batteries of Arrow nor the 2 Batteries of David Sling not the Air Defense from US Destroyer Squadron in the Eastern Mediterranean nor the Destroyer Squadron in the Red Sea nor the existing US Air defense network across CENTCOM.
The 7 Patriot batteries that Israel has in storage can very quickly be put back into action. They were only decommissioned last summer from active service.

The 17 Hawk Batteries would likely need a lot of work since they have been in storage for almost 2 decades though we don't know how much continual maintenance Israel has done with these over the years.
Saudi Arabia has
6x Patriot Battalions with 108x launchers.
16x I-Hawk Battalions with 128x launchers
1x THAAD Battery
12+ Batteries of Crotale/Shahine

Excluding the total of 618~ units between Avengers, Vulcans, and Oerlikon GDF 35mm Anti-Aircraft Guns:
Read 6 tweets

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