1/6 - “The #XBB strain is causing a small surge in cases in countries like Bangladesh and Singapore. The latter has recorded a daily average of about 5,500 cases over the past week, compared to a daily average of 2,000 cases a month ago.” fortune.com/2022/10/11/wha…
2/6- “Hospitalizations in Singapore have increased alongside the rise in cases, yet deaths remain low, with fewer than a dozen recorded in the country over the past wk. Over 90% of Singapore’s pop has received 2 doses of a #COVID19 vaccine, 79% have received at least 1 booster.”
3/6 - “Bangladesh is also reporting a small uptick in cases, though reported numbers are smaller than Singapore’s. The country reported a daily average of about 500 cases during the week of Oct. 3, compared to an average of 300 cases a month earlier. Vaccination rate is 75.5%.”
4/6 - “A preprint study from Oct. 4, authored by researchers at Peking University and Changping Laboratory, found that #XBB had the greatest ability to evade antibody protections among newly emerging variants.” biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
5/6 - “Experts are also concerned that monoclonal antibody treatments might be less effective against newer variants like ##XBB and BA.2.75.2. We’ve not seen this type of immune evasion before”
6/6 - “#BA5 is still the most dominant strain of #COVID19 in the U.S., making up 79.2% of #COVID19 cases recorded between Oct. 2 and Oct. 11, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Nowcast.”
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1/6 - Livrons-nous à une tentative (hasardeuse) envisageant trois scénarios du #COVID19 pour cet hiver. Hasardeuse, sachant le caractère très imprévisible de cette pandémie...
Tout d'abord notons l'accélération de la pandémie, qui nous a livré 4 vagues en 2022, sur 8 depuis 2020.
2/6 - Le pic de la 8ème vague due à BA.5 semble être en vue en France, UK, DK, BE: il pourrait survenir autour du 15 oct, soit 2 mois avant celui de la vague Delta (pic le 15 déc 21).
- Dans un 1er scénario optimiste, la vague BA.5 reflue fin oct-nov, avec une accalmie en déc 22.
3/6 - Un 2ème scénario moins sympathique serait à l'image de fin 2021, où Omicron a déboulé en pleine force sans laisser la courbe épidémique redescendre. Ici, BA.5 cèderait la place à l'un des sous-variants en cours de qualification (XBB, BQ.1.1., BA.2.75.2,...) et bis-repetita!
1/4 – France (R-eff=1.09) is increasing at slower pace in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, and mortality.
65,496 cases and 62 deaths/day to be reported by Oct 19, if at same pace.
Regional forecast for Oct 13 to 16: tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by:@ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/4 – Eleven mainland Régions are rising in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low [or medium] mortality:
AURA (R-eff=1.16);
[Bg-Fr-Comté=1.13];
[Ctre-V-Loire=1.13];
Surge in Corse=1.28;
[Gd-Est=1.15];
IdF=1.13;
Norm=1.10;
Nouv-Aq=1.14;
Occit=1.12;
P-de-L=1.10;
[PACA=1.11].
3/4 –Two mainland Région are increasing in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low mortality:
Bretagne (R-eff=1.08);
Hauts-de-France=1.09.
1/9 - “It was not familiar economic forces that caused the upheavals of recent years, but #COVID19 and the war in Ukraine. This reminds us that the most destructive forces we know are indifferent nature and wicked humanity.” ft.com/content/1509f2…
2/9 - “These huge surprises have also reminded us that it is impossible to forecast the economy. Often more illuminating is examination of how forecasts evolve.”
3/9 - “In this case, one can summarise the changes from previous forecasts quite simply: “Just about everything that could go wrong has.” In “fund-speak”, “downside risks” have materialised.”
1/4 – France (R-eff=1.12) is rising in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, rising in mortality too.
69,073 cases and 63 deaths/day to be reported by Oct 18, if at same pace.
Regional forecast for Oct 12 to Oct 15: tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by:@ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/4 – Eleven mainland Régions are rising in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low [or medium] mortality:
[AURA (R-eff=1.17)];
[Bg-Fr-Comté=1.14];
[Ctre-V-Loire=1.14];
Surge in Corse=1.30;
[Gd-Est=1.16];
IdF=1.13;
Norm=1.10;
Nouv-Aq=1.15;
Occit=1.13;
P-de-L=1.11;
[PACA=1.12].
3/4 –Two mainland Région are increasing in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low mortality:
Bretagne (R-eff=1.07);
Hauts-de-France=1.09.
1/4 – France (R-eff=1.13) is rising in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, rising in mortality too.
67,067 cases and 61 deaths/day to be reported by Oct 17, if at same pace.
Regional forecast for Oct 11 to Oct 14: tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by:@ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/4 – Eleven mainland Régions are rising in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low [medium] mortality:
[AURA (R-eff=1.18)];
[Bg-Fr-Comté=1.15];
[Ctre-V-Loire=1.14];
Surge in Corse=1.31;
[Gd-Est=1.17];
IdF=1.14;
Norm=1.11;
Nouv-Aq=1.15;
Occit=1.14;
P-de-L=1.11;
[PACA=1.13].
3/4 –Two mainland Région are increasing in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low mortality:
Bretagne (R-eff=1.08);
Hauts-de-France=1.09.
1/4 – France (R-eff=1.15) is rising in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, rising in mortality too.
67,315 cases and 62 deaths/day to be reported by Oct 14, if at same pace.
Regional forecast for Oct 08 to Oct 11: tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by:@ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/4 – Twelve mainland Régions are rising in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low [medium] mortality:
[AURA (R-eff=1.16)];
[Bg-Fr-Comté=1.15];
[Ctre-V-Loire=1.15];
Corse=1.17;
[Gd-Est=1.17];
HdF=1.10;
IdF=1.16;
Norm=1.12;
Nouv-Aq=1.15;
Occit=1.11;
P-de-L=1.14;
[PACA=1.10].
3/4 –One mainland Région is increasing in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low mortality:
Bretagne (R-eff=1.09).