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Alastair Thompson Profile picture
@althecat
Oct 12, 2022 • 13 tweets • 10 min read • Read on X
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This IR satelllite image [src: @TropicalTidbits] shows #TSKarl is unquestionably now #HurricaneKarl. It also shows it is not moving towards the Mexico coast line as per the current @NHC_Atlantic forecast - but moving NE. And the transformation into this was 3 hours ago.
Here are its first three hours as a hurricane.
And this is the most recent @NHC_Atlantic discussion bulletin for #TSKarl, issued 2 hours ago.
@NHC_Atlantic Which pretty much precisely matches this latest GFS model PWAT forecast which shows pretty much exactly what happened to #HurricaneJulia 2 days ago [see.. quoted tweet].

Is Central America really about to experience groundhog day?
Call me skeptical.

Like #Julia #Karl is endlessly surprising. And now instead of moving West as forecast, after becoming a cyclone/hurricane 3-4 hours ago #Karl has already moved 125kms on a heading just north of east.

#Karl also now has a cyclonic core that is 220kms across.
Karl is now 460 kms from the Mexico coastline and moving further away at around 25-30kmh.
Its now pretty now clear what is going on.

#HurricaneKarl #TSKarl is caught in an atmospheric river generated by #TD99E (in a similar way to how #HurricaneIan was) and headed towards florida - not Mexico.
1. This image shows #Karl & #99E in infrared with two overlays.

a) shear [winds which can slow development - in red/green)
b) + 200-850mb wind directions (in white).

The circular element over Mexico is a high pressure circulation situated between #TD99E and #Karl.
The high pressure system is rotating clockwise unlike the cyclone which is rotating counterclockwise. In the animated image you can see how this works like a pulley water produced in convection is is being exchanged between the two storms, strengthening both of them.
When viewed as an animation in motion it becomes exceedingly obvious where #HurricaneKarl is headed.

Storm #99E is the source point of an atmospheric river which extends over the Gulf of Mexico to Florida.
#KARL is now embedded in an atmospheric river. Due to the high pressure circulation over Mexico (the circular feature in images above) Karl is also recycling water back to #99E on the southern side of the river.
There was a similar situation in West Pacific in July 2021 with 2 hurricanes one in the South China Sea and one north of the Phillipines.
In that instance the storms were locked together, but here #Karl is effectively flowing north east in a river being generated by 99E but supported by moisture flows from the tropical water superhighway, aka the ICTZ, "Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone".

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More from @althecat

Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Aug 10
Netanyahu has proposed a pathway to end the war in Gaza under pressure primarily from the U.S. UK, France & Germany. Spain and Ireland and several other European nations & the European Commission.

LIVE: PM Netanyahu Holds a Press conference youtube.com/live/1ebXvF9MO…
The @israelipm sounds defeated. Hopefully this is the beginning of the end. The deal being offered to Gaza is far from perfect but it sounds workable in Netanyahus outline.
@IsraeliPM Whether it will be approved by Hamas however is unclear and rather complicated - as it’s unclear who inside Gaza would be in a position to respond to the offer. Many of Hamas’s fighters may prefer to die as martyrs also than to agree to any deal.
Read 5 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jul 25
Guess who has the most to lose if/when @realDonaldTrump discovers he’s now a lame duck President.

He is now so deep under water both in polling and with his base that it’s very hard to imagine him bouncing back.
I’ll answer my question shortly buts it’s well worth pondering…. In the meantime consider this.

Trump is now a laughing stock. And not only is everyone in America now laughing at him. But he has also been abandoned by his base and his party.
The bonfire of vanity that belongs to Donald Trump is iridescent, a signal to the world that his presidency has ended before it even started.
Read 7 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jul 25
This is pathetic from @realDonaldTrump he’s lashing out like an angry teenager. Jerome Powell says he’s included a the costs of a building that was completed years ago in his very public attack on the FED Chair.
Trump has completely lost the plot. The single most damaging thing that he could do to undermine confidence in the U.S. dollar (which he publicly claims to want to deflate and there by make all Americans poorer - is to attack the Federal Reserve and the SEC.
@realDonaldTrump Trump is setting fire to the dollar to distract from his Epstein mess what a complete baby.
Read 4 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jul 2
I attended the Bonn climate talks. They were very disappointing to everyone. The elephant in the room was (of course) the U.S. decision to withdraw from the talks altogether.

open.spotify.com/episode/3YV0SU…
Unfortunately.. perhaps intentionally in advance of the continuation of climate talks regardless of #US_Disintigration the talks were also very sparsely attended particularly by activists and NGOs. The reason for this was @elonmusk destroying @-USAID.
@elonmusk As you can see the USAID Twitter account is now dead - deleted which is an appalling act of vandalism executed by Elon and his tech-bro team of teenagers.
Read 13 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jul 2
This article is deeply depressing. For my part at Scoop.co.nz it is clear to me that:

1. The Govt has a deliberate strategy - probably not official but nevertheless operative to destroy NZ media.
2. This is not going to change any time soon.
thespinoff.co.nz/politics/02-07…
& Sadly from what I discerned last year the @nzlabour opposition is both apathetic and indifferent to the plight of media. Also the @NZGreens. And have always been so for as long as I can remember.

This is extremely disappointing
@nzlabour @NZGreens I will be returning to NZ in August to ensure continues to function in these very difficult times for NZ media. We have faced numerous big challenges recently and thank our supporters and readers for their support.Scoop.co.nz
Read 5 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jan 22
Ok so this is a bit weird, but in a kinda chill way so do bare with me and and I will be happy to answer questions afterwards. It’s about a castle on a virtual island in a massive online role playing game called Evony and it involves a possible but speculative discussion about @elonmusk and @X.

All will be revealed but first a picture or four actually from the game. More will come.Image
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Ok. So here’s what I think is going on in a nutshell. I think elonmusk has invested in a MMORPG: a “Massive Multimedia Online Role Playing Game” which is a bit of a mouthful, called EVONY.

I liked its Twitter ads and finally clicked. It’s huge. Someone else can do the business story here which I am sure is interesting too.Image
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But the this bit is weird.

The mysterious knight on the red horse arrived this morning beside my castle and he had some treasure.

I hadn’t a clue who it was so I grabbed the treasure and tried to kill the horse and rider as that’s what you do. But we got smashed badly.
Read 15 tweets

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